Summary: A very weak upper low is centered right over central California this afternoon, resulting in bands of high clouds. Temperatures as of 1:00pm were nearing the 80 degree mark at most locations so another day of pleasant afternoon temperatures. In the short term, upper level high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific and the western U.S. That will begin to rapidly change Thursday as a rather robust low pressure system moves out of the northeast Pacific and centers just off the Oregon coast Thursday afternoon.
A vigorous but moisture starved system will move into the Great Basin Friday night with northern and central California on the western flank. A cold front will move through the valley sometime Friday night or Saturday morning. even ahead of the front, gusty northwest winds will move down the valley as pressure over Nevada begins to quickly fall. Temperatures Friday afternoon will take a nosedive from near 80 on Thursday into the upper 60s and lower 70s Friday and upper 50s to lower 60s Saturday and Sunday.
Light rain and snow showers will spread down the Sierra Nevada, however models still indicate the upper air support will continue to be east of the Sierra Nevada. Even so, I’m going to keep a slight chance of light showers in the forecast mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills for Friday night and Saturday.
The main challenge coming up will be in determining overnight temperatures Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday of next week. This is discussed below in the frost discussion.
As the low pulls into the Desert Southwest and Rocky Mountains Sunday and Monday, and upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific ridges into western Canada, the flow will be north to south from western Canada into California. This will result in chilly readings through the middle of next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight with occasional high clouds. Mostly clear Tuesday through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness Friday, becoming breezy and much cooler. Variable cloudiness Friday night and Saturday with a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Mostly clear Sunday with the exception of Kern County and possibly Tulare County which may remain mostly cloudy due to upsloping. Mostly clear Sunday afternoon through Monday night with cold nights and cool days.
Short Term:
| Madera 45/81/45/78 | Reedley 44/82/45/80 | Dinuba 44/80/45/79 | |
| Porterville 44/82/44/80 | Lindsay 43/81/45/79 | Delano 46/82/46/79 | |
| Bakersfield 56/83/54/79 | Taft 57/81/55/79 | Arvin 48/83/48/80 | |
| Lamont 47/82/47/79 | Pixley 45/81/45/79 | Tulare 44/80/44/78 | |
| Woodlake 45/81/45/78 | Hanford 45/82/46/79 | Orosi 44/80/45/78 | |
Winds: Winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable during the day. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday. Expect winds Friday to increase out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts Friday afternoon and night.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Friday and more than likely well beyond. However, I do want to keep a small chance of sprinkles or light showers in the forecast for later Friday night and Saturday, mainly near the Sierra Nevada foothills. Forecast models this afternoon continue to show the main dynamics of this storm will move into Nevada and Utah with light showers over the Sierra Nevada, but with dry conditions over the valley floor. After Saturday, dry conditions will return. Medium range models indicate we will be dry all of next week.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through Friday morning. on Saturday morning, readings will dive into the 30s but most locations will remain above freezing. As mentioned in the summary above, a north/south jet stream will drive into California this weekend and early next week. One model indicates Porterville will be at 30 Sunday morning although that is an outlier. Still, with a brief, strong, off shore flow Sunday and Monday, and gusty winds moving down the valley, dew points may very well fall low enough for upper 20s and lower 30s at many locations Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday mornings. I wouldn’t be surprised to see upslope clouds against the north facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and, to a lesser extent, along the southern Sierra Nevada. In theory, this would keep temperatures above freezing in much of Tulare and Kern counties. However, a brief off shore flow should dissipate the cloud cover for Monday and Tuesday mornings. For now, this doesn’t look like a critical situation at all, but the growing season should come to an end this weekend.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
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Porterville
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Ivanhoe
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Woodlake
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| Strathmore
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Mcfarland
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Ducor
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Tea Pot Dome
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| Lindsay
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Exeter
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Famoso
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Madera
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| Belridge
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Delano
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North Bakersfield
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Orosi
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| Orange Cove
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Lindcove
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Lindcove Hillside
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Sanger River Bottom
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| Root Creek
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Venice Hill
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Rosedale
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Jasmine
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| Arvin
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Lamont
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Plainview
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Mettler
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| Edison
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Maricopa
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Holland Creek
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Tivy Valley
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| Kite Road South
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Kite Road North
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AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 3/morning