November 4, 2020
Summary: A flat zone of high pressure at the upper levels of the atmosphere remains off shore and extends inland into the Great Basin and Desert Southwest while a rapid west to east flow continues over the Pacific Northwest. We have another 48 hours of well above average temperatures before we drop into winter mode beginning Friday but much more so over the weekend and into next week. By Thursday night, a cold low with its origins in the Gulf of Alaska will be just off the northwest California coast.
Models this morning are continuing the trend in indicating this storm will drop southeasterly further west, moving the system right into northern and central California Friday night and Saturday. This will increase the chance of precip not just over the mountains but over the valley floor, as well. Even though the parent low will move into Nevada by Saturday evening, models are still picking up on a secondary low driving southward from the Pacific Northwest and into California Sunday, renewing the chance of light showers. This second impulse will be colder with snow down to 3,000-4,000 feet in the nearby mountains.
A ridge of upper level high pressure will be building off the Pacific coast Sunday and Monday with a ridge extending northward into the Gulf of Alaska, setting up a north/northwest flow into California. This will keep temperatures well below average through the middle of next week.
Models are still showing a weaker trough of low pressure moving mainly into the interior west Wednesday and Thursday. This will likely be a dry event, however models encompassing through next weekend are indicating a predominant area of cold low pressure over the western U.S. with below average temperatures. It’s unclear whether more rain will occur later next week, but the two week model continues to show a better than even chance of above average rain.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness Friday. A chance of showers from Fresno County northward by Friday evening. Showers likely Friday night and at times through Saturday, tapering off Saturday night. a chance of light showers Sunday into Sunday evening. Mostly cloudy Sunday night and Monday morning. Clearing Monday afternoon. Mostly clear Monday night through Wednesday.
Short Term:
Madera 77/43/76/43/63 | Reedley 78/44/76/43/64 | Dinuba 76/42/75/42/63 |
Porterville 78/43/77/43/66 | Lindsay 78/42/77/42/64 | Delano 78/46/77/45/67 |
Bakersfield 80/51/78/52/68 | Taft 78/53/79/53/67 | Arvin 80/47/79/47/67 |
Lamont 79/46/79/46/68 | Pixley 78/43/77/43/65 | Tulare 76/42/75/42/63 |
Woodlake 77/43/76/42/63 | Hanford 78/45/76/44/64 | Orosi 76/42/75/42/62 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Saturday
Showers likely 45/57 |
Sunday
Chance of showers 40/57 |
Monday
AM clouds/PM sun 35/58 |
Tuesday
Mostly clear 33/62 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 35/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 11 through November 17: This model continues to show the trend of below average temperatures over the western U.S. Even though there’s no strong signature for rain, rain is not ruled out, either, so the chance of precipitation remains low.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoons and evenings through Thursday will be variable to 10 MPH. Winds during the night and mornings will be generally less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds will increase out of the northwest Friday at 10 to 20 MPH at times with stronger gusts. Winds Friday night through Saturday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH at times with stronger gusts.
Rain Discussion: The trend on model information continues this morning. a strong cold low is shown moving into northern and central California late Friday through Saturday. the fact that the parent low will move almost overhead will dramatically increase the chance of light precipitation over the valley floor. A secondary wave of low pressure will dive through northern and central California Sunday through Sunday evening, renewing the chance of light showers. Dry weather should return by Monday morning. for now, next week looks dry, as well, however that may be subject to change for later next week as a broad area of low pressure remains over the west.
Rainfall amounts from Friday evening through Sunday evening should range from .10 to .25 over the eastern flank of the valley north of Kern County and a tenth or two would not be a surprise over the valley portion of Kern County and along the west side.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing through Saturday morning. we will jump from Indian Summer into winter with the changeover occurring Friday. Readings will only warm into the mid to upper 50s Saturday through Monday. A rather vigorous low with origins in the north Pacific will track through northern and central California late Friday afternoon through Saturday. the air associated with this storm is quite cold. Models continue to pick up on a secondary low moving through Sunday, renewing the chance of light showers and driving an even colder shot of air into central California. For now, there is a good chance of heavy cloud cover maintaining above freezing temps Sunday morning and possibly even Monday, however where skies clear and winds die off Monday morning, low 30s will certainly be possible with a chance of upper 20s in those low lying locations. Tuesday seems to have a greater risk of widespread low to mid 30s with a chance of upper 20s in the typical cold spots. Slow moderation will occur at midweek and beyond, but even then, models show a broad area of low pressure over the west with below average temperatures continuing. For now, it does not appear this will be close to a critical situation, however I must emphasize that projections are changing from model run to model run so stay tuned.
Air Quality Expectations: With the tremendous amount of smoke over the valley floor, the San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 4, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Merced County. The air quality for the rest of the valley is deemed unhealthy for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/30%, Porterville, 89%/24%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 100%. Bakersfield: Today: 199% Tomorrow: 100%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .78, Parlier .71, Blackwell Corners .80, Arvin .89, Orange Cove .83, Porterville .76, Delano .73. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 62, Blackwell 71, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 68, Porterville 65, Delano 58
Record Temperatures: 86/30. Average Temperatures: 71/44
Heating Degree Days This Season: 49, -80
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for November So Far: 63.5 +6.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00, -.72 Month to Date: .00, -.09
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .T, +or- -.35. Month to date .00, -.05
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0, Parlier, 0, Arvin, 0,Shafter, Stratford, 0, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 0, Porterville 0
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:27 am Sunset: 4:57 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:32
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 80 / 45 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 81 / 44 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 81 / 51 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 81 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 81 / 43 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 82 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 81 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 81 / 47 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 79 / 48 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.97 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.79 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.96 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 1.02 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.72 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.65 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.35 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.34 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.68 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.72 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.71 13.95
Next report: November 4, 2020/pm