November 4, 2020
Summary: We have roughly 36 hours left of the current weather pattern before the first real round of truly winter type weather arrives in central California. We are still under a balmy air mass. The freezing level this morning taken over Vandenburg AFB was up to 13,900 feet.
A rapidly developing low in the Gulf of Alaska will dive southeastward off the coast of the Pacific Northwest Thursday then will drop into northern California Friday morning. Models continue to show this storm moving right over central California by early Saturday morning. light showers may spread as far south as Fresno County by sunset Friday with the likelihood of light showers later Friday night and at times through Saturday. a fast moving cold front will barrel down the valley on Friday, issuing in a much cooler air mass. Temperatures will drop at least ten degrees. Over the weekend, temperatures will struggle to reach the mid to upper 50s.
A secondary low will drop down the west side of the main low and right into central California Sunday. This feature doesn’t appear to have as much moisture involved with it. It’s also colder and will drive snow levels in the nearby mountains down to 3,000 to 4,000 feet.
In the meantime, over the eastern Pacific a new high will be building northward into the Gulf of Alaska. A north/northwest flow will take shape along the eastern side of the high into California for well below average temperatures through Tuesday. A frost threat exists for Monday and Tuesday mornings, which is discussed below.
The next trough will move more into the interior west about Wednesday and for now is not expected to bring precipitation into central California. Conditions after Wednesday and into next weekend look dry, although the two week model is still hinting at signs of more precip.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Thursday night. increasing cloudiness Friday. A chance of showers from Fresno County north by sunset Friday. Showers becoming likely at times Friday night and Saturday. A slight chance of showers Saturday night then an increasing chance of showers Sunday through Sunday evening. Mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties Sunday night and Monday morning with partial clearing elsewhere. Mostly clear to partially cloudy Monday night through Wednesday with, dare I say it? Patchy morning fog.
Short Term:
Madera 42/78/43/64 | Reedley 43/78/43/65 | Dinuba 41/77/42/64 | |
Porterville 43/79/44/66 | Lindsay 41/78/43/65 | Delano 45/78/45/67 | |
Bakersfield 54/78/54/68 | Taft 55/78/55/68 | Arvin 47/80/48/69 | |
Lamont 47/79/47/68 | Pixley 43/77/44/66 | Tulare 41/77/43/65 | |
Woodlake 42/78/44/64 | Hanford 44/78/47/64 | Orosi 41/78/44/64 |
Winds: Winds through Thursday night will be no more than 10 MPH during the afternoons and generally no more than 5 MPH during the nights and mornings. Gusty winds will work down the valley Friday at 10 to 20 MPH. gusts to 30 MPH are possible, mainly north of Kern County. Winds Friday night and Saturday will continue out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts.
Rain: It’s possible rain may reach as far south as Fresno County by sunset Friday with showers becoming likely Friday night and at times through Saturday throughout the valley, tapering off by Saturday evening. Light showers will increase again Sunday as a secondary disturbance moves through. Rainfall amounts north of Kern County and generally along the east side of the valley will range between .10 and .25 with locally more at the base of the foothills. Along the west side, generally less than .10 is expected with possibly a tenth or two over the valley portion of Kern County. The time frame of all this is Friday night through Sunday night. Dry weather will return Monday. For now, it looks like dry weather will continue through next weekend.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night through Saturday and more than likely Sunday. On Monday morning, I look for a lot of upslope clouds banking up against the Kern County mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada which, theoretically, will insulate those regions. If this does occur, temperatures would only drop into the mid 30s to the lower 40s Monday morning. However, where skies clear, widespread low to mid 30s would prevail with riverbottom and similar locations dipping into the upper 20s. Tuesday and possibly Wednesday morning have a greater risk of widespread low to mid 30s with a chance of low lying cold spots dipping down to 28 to 29 degrees or so. After Wednesday, there should be enough moderation for above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
af |
Porterville
af |
Ivanhoe
af |
Woodlake
af |
Strathmore
af |
Mcfarland
af |
Ducor
af |
Tea Pot Dome
af |
Lindsay
af |
Exeter
af |
Famoso
af |
Madera
af |
Belridge
af |
Delano
af |
North Bakersfield
af |
Orosi
af |
Orange Cove
af |
Lindcove
af |
Lindcove Hillside
af |
Sanger River Bottom
af |
Root Creek
af |
Venice Hill
af |
Rosedale
af |
Jasmine
af |
Arvin
af |
Lamont
af |
Plainview
af |
Mettler
af |
Edison
af |
Maricopa
af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
af |
Kite Road South
af |
Kite Road North
af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 5/morning