November 5, 2020
We will be out of the office this afternoon. Reports will resume Friday, November 6.
Summary: Satellite imagery this morning shows high clouds being drawn northward from a weak upper air disturbance off the northern Baja coast which will become visible in the south valley for a time this morning. the major player, though, in a huge change in our pattern is moving out of the Gulf of Alaska in the form of a vigorous low pressure system. There is plenty of cold air as well as upper air dynamics. This storm will dive into the Pacific Northwest tonight and into northern California Friday. The cold front associated with that parent low will move through the valley sometime late Friday afternoon or Friday night as light showers spread down the valley. This system will not be carrying a tremendous amount of water. Even so, light showers are likely from Friday night through Saturday afternoon, ending for a short time Saturday night. a second, colder low will then dive due south from western Canada and into northern and central California Sunday. As it moves in, showers will again spread down the valley.
Models this morning are showing this system to be stronger than earlier indicated. The bottom line is, between Friday night and Sunday night, some locations north of Kern County could pick up between a third and a half inch, though that might be a stretch. This second system should drive snow levels in the mountains down to 3,000 over Yosemite and 4,000 feet over the Tehachapi Mountains Sunday. As you might expect, we’ll go from Indian Summer right into winter as highs Saturday through Monday will only warm into the mid to upper 50s.
While the second low dives into California, a second system will build along the eastern Pacific Ocean northward to Alaska. The squeeze play between the exiting storm and the off shore high will create a north/northwest flow aloft beginning Monday and continuing for much of next week as a broad area of low pressure covers the western states. Currently, conditions look dry through about Thursday of next week and possibly longer. However, some models are keeping the door open for storms to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and towards California beginning Friday of next week.
Forecast: Mostly clear with some high clouds at times today. Becoming partly cloudy later tonight. increasing clouds Friday with a chance of light showers from Fresno County north by sunset. Showers likely at times Friday night and Saturday. a slight chance of showers Saturday night. Showers likely again Sunday, tapering off Sunday night. Mostly cloudy Monday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Thursday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 78/48/64/40/56 | Reedley 79/47/64/41/57 | Dinuba 77/48/64/40/56 |
| Porterville 79/47/64/42/57 | Lindsay 78/47/66/40/56 | Delano 79/48/64/44/57 |
| Bakersfield 80/55/67/48/55 | Taft 80/57/67/46/56 | Arvin 80/48/64/45/57 |
| Lamont 80/47/64/44/56 | Pixley 79/47/64/41/57 | Tulare 78/46/64/40/56 |
| Woodlake 78/47/63/41/56 | Hanford 79/48/65/44/57 | Orosi 78/46/64/41/56 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Showers likely 42/56 |
Monday
AM clouds/PM sun 34/59 |
Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 33/59 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 34/60 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 34/59 |
Two Week Outlook: November 12 through November 18: This model continues to show the trend of below average temperatures over the western U.S. Even though there’s no strong signature for rain, rain is not ruled out, either, so the chance of precipitation remains low.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be variable and generally at or less than 10 MPH. Winds tonight will be light. Winds Friday will increase out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH with local gusts to 30 MPH later Friday afternoon and Friday night. Winds Saturday through Sunday will be generally out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, especially in the vicinity of showers.
We will be out of the office this afternoon. Reports will resume Friday, November 6.
Rain Discussion: We could see light showers reaching into Fresno and Madera Counties by sunset Friday. Showers will spread down the valley Friday night and will continue at times through Saturday. there will be a short dry slot Saturday night between two systems. Showers will spread down the valley again Sunday, lasting into Sunday night. Rainfall amounts along the eastern side of the valley north of Kern County from Friday night through Sunday night, with some luck, should range from around .20 to as much as .50, although that may be a stretch. Along the west side of the valley, amounts for the entire event should range from .10 to .25. Over the valley portion of Kern County, anywhere from .10 to upwards of .25 or so. Dry weather will return Monday. For now, it appears dry weather will continue through Thursday of next week. Some kind of trough will move through Wednesday and Wednesday night, but right now it appears dry. Models do show storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska into northern California closer to next weekend, so it’s possible this active pattern will be with us for a while.
Frost Discussion: Two cold low pressure systems will move through over the weekend. The one Sunday is the coldest and it may bring some below freezing temperatures in some areas as early as Monday morning. for now, I feel there will be plenty of upslope clouds banking up against the southern Sierra foothills and the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains to put a blanket of cloud cover over much of the southern and eastern flanks of the valley, especially in Tulare County. The greatest risk of near freezing temperatures Monday morning will be in Fresno, Madera, and Kings Counties.
On Tuesday and Wednesday, there will be less cloud cover and generally light to no wind for possibly widespread low to mid 30s. upper 20s will be possible for short durations in river bottom and similar terrain.
The pattern beyond Wednesday is a bit unclear. Models show storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska and towards northern California by next weekend. For now, due to model differences, the effects on central California are unclear. By and large, however, the western U.S. and California will be dominated by a large trough and a chilly north/northwest flow aloft maintain below average temperatures for the next week to ten days.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 5, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Merced and Kern Counties. The air quality for the rest of the valley is deemed unhealthy for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/24%, Porterville, 92%/23%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 199% Tomorrow: 40%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .80, Parlier .70, Blackwell Corners .79, Arvin .89, Orange Cove .81, Porterville .75, Delano .75. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 62, Blackwell 71, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 65, Delano 58
Record Temperatures: 90/33. Average Temperatures: 70/44
Heating Degree Days This Season: 53, -85
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 62.9 +5.9
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .00, -.76 Month to Date: .00, -.13
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .T, +or- -.37. Month to date .00, -.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0, Parlier, 0, Arvin, 0,Shafter, Stratford, 0, Delano, 0, Lindcove, 0, Porterville, 1
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:28 am Sunset: 4:56 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:30
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 80 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 80 / 40 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 80 / 50 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 80 / 42 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 81 / 42 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 79 / 52 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1533 / 79 / 47 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 80 / 48 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 78 / 47 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 1.02 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.83 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 1.00 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 1.06 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.76 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.69 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.37 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.36 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.71 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.75 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.75 13.95
Next report: November 6, 2020