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Forecast

November 7, 2020/pm update

November 7, 2020

Summary: As of 1:00pm, the temperature at Bakersfield was a mid winter like 49 and only 47 at Porterville.  More locations further north where the rain had ended were generally in the low to mid 50s.  As of 1;00PM, Tehachapi was at 32 degrees, giving you a good idea where the snow level is.

 

The showers have largely ended north of southern Tulare County and are diminishing over Kern County.  This storm has had a rather odd precipitation pattern with very little  precip over the Sierra Nevada while the heaviest amounts occurred in the southern San Joaquin Valley.  More in the rain section below.

 

Tonight will be largely dry and overcast.  To our north, however, a rapidly developing low  is currently over the Pacific Northwest.  By early tomorrow morning, the center of this system will be over northeast California with the main dynamics sliding over the Sierra Nevada and western Nevada during the day Sunday.  The coldest air aloft will be slightly to our east but not by much.  Even though tonight will be largely dry, showers will spread down the valley Sunday morning, continuing into the evening.  Models continue to indicate there will be enough dynamics in the atmosphere Sunday afternoon for a chance of isolated thunderstorms.  This storm is very cold, especially for this early in the rainfall season.  Look for snow down to 3,000 feet by  Sunday afternoon.

 

By Sunday night, this low will be tracking into the Desert Southwest followed by a dry northerly flow aloft.  This will set the stage for some chilly overnight lows Monday through Wednesday mornings.  This is discussed below in the frost section.

 

The eastern Pacific high is still projected to remain off the coast of north America with a northwesterly flow down California wrapping around the western side of a trough of low pressure over the interior west.  By Friday, temperatures will show more significant moderation as the flow pattern becomes west/northwest.

 

Models continue to indicate a moist storm system will move into the Pacific Northwest and northern California Friday night and Saturday.  models still show the main rain line remaining north of Fresno County,  however.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight.  Showers spreading down the valley Sunday morning, continuing into the evening hours with a chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon.  Clearing north of Kern and Tulare Counties Sunday night, but remaining partly to mostly cloudy over eastern Tulare County and Kern County.  Mostly clear Monday afternoon through Friday. Increasing clouds Friday night with a slight chance of showers north of Fresno Saturday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 40/54/31/55 Reedley 41/55/32/56 Dinuba 40/53/30/56
Porterville 42/54/33/55 Lindsay 40/53/32/55 Delano 42/54/33/56
Bakersfield 44/52/36/54 Taft 43/52/38/54 Arvin 43/53/37/55
Lamont 44/52/37/55 Pixley 41/54/31/55 Tulare 39/54/30/55
Woodlake 40/53/31/54 Hanford 40/55/33/56 Orosi 39/53/30/55

 

Winds: Winds tonight will be variable to 12 MPH.  Winds Sunday through Sunday evening will be out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly in the vicinity of showers.  Winds will diminish Sunday night, becoming light during the early morning hours.  Winds Monday through Tuesday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons, variable in nature.  Winds will be generally less than 5 MPH nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  The heaviest rain in central California from the current storm has been over the valley portion of Kern County where locally nearly .50 has occurred.  Some examples are as follows:  Bakersfield .35, Taft .18, Arvin .48, Buttonwillow .30, Belridge .21, Blackwell Corners .27, Porterville .17, Hanford .10, Visalia .03, Del Rey .05, Fresno .10, Madera .06, and Merced .82.

 

The showers are tapering off this afternoon, even in the south valley.  Tonight will be largely dry then the second storm will dive into central California Sunday with showers spreading down the valley Sunday morning and continuing through the evening, ending Sunday night.  unlike the current storm, the main dynamics of this system will swing into the Sierra Nevada/western Nevada region.  Even so, widespread showers can be anticipated with another .10 to .25 possible.  Expect dry weather Monday through Friday.

 

Some models show the southern limit of precipitation over northern California north of Fresno Friday night and Sunday.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight.  as winds die off Monday morning and skies clear, especially over Madera, Fresno, and Kings Counties, coldest locations will dip down to 28 to 29 degrees in unprotected river bottom and similar regions.  Most flat terrain locations will dip down to 30 to 33 or so.  It’s possible clouds will bank up against the Tehachapi Mountains and the southern Sierra Nevada Monday morning.  if this occurs, portions of Kern and Tulare Counties might very well remain above freezing.

 

Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will see clear skies and winds will be light to calm.  It’s still unclear where dew points will set in, however portions of the south valley received a pretty good soaking which may very well nudge dew points up higher than I would have though 24 hours ago. Look for the beginning of the fog season this upcoming week, although for now it doesn’t appear it will be widespread enough to impact overnight lows.  Readings will begin to moderate by Wednesday, continuing through Friday, with above freezing conditions during the late part of the work week and into early next week.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

af

Porterville

af

Ivanhoe

af

Woodlake

af

Strathmore

af

Mcfarland

af

Ducor

af

Tea Pot Dome

af

Lindsay

af

Exeter

af

Famoso

af

Madera

af

Belridge

af

Delano

af

North Bakersfield

af

Orosi

af

Orange Cove

af

Lindcove

af

Lindcove Hillside

af

Sanger River Bottom

af

Root Creek

af

Venice Hill

af

Rosedale

af

Jasmine

af

Arvin

af

Lamont

af

Plainview

af

Mettler

af

Edison

af

Maricopa

af

Holland Creek

af

Tivy Valley

af

Kite Road South

af

Kite Road North

af

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 8/morning