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Forecast

November 8, 2020/report

November 8, 2020

Summary: Doppler radar at this hour indicates only widely scattered showers over the valley floor.  However, snow is widespread up and down the Sierra Nevada.  The freezing level this morning over Vandenburg AFB stands at 4,500 feet.  The temperature at Sandburg at 4,100 feet was 32 degrees as of 6:00am.  No doubt snow is falling below the 4,000 foot elevation.

 

The center of a very cold, cold core low is in eastern Nevada this morning with the western side of the storm over northern and central California.  This is bringing winds aloft out of the west almost perpendicular over the Sierra Nevada, creating the necessary lift for heavy snow.  I don’t know whether or not it will cause ski resorts to open, but hopefully it will  help put out the horrible fires.

 

As daytime heating gets revved up later today, scattered showers will break out.  A few thunderstorms could develop this afternoon with a slight chance of small hail.  The low will begin to drop southeastward tonight into the Desert Southwest Monday.  The flow aloft will continue to briefly be out of the north with its origins in western Canada.  This air mass will settle to the valley floor, setting the stage for the earliest freeze in many a moon.  After months of above average temperatures, it stands to reason the flip side would occur at some point.

 

The northerly flow aloft will cause banks of clouds to form over the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains and the western slopes of the southern Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County.  This may or may not aid with sub freezing temperatures tonight in Kern and Tulare Counties.

 

We will be sandwiched between a large trough over the intermountain west and upper level high pressure off shore.  Weak waves of low pressure will  move through the trough from time to time.  A somewhat stronger system will move through Friday with a chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.

 

Models for the weekend and into next week show a fairly high possibility of showers from time to time.

 

Forecast: Mostly cloudy with scattered showers through this evening.  A chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.  Clearing later tonight but remaining partly to mostly cloudy in Kern and Tulare Counties.  Becoming mostly clear Monday.  Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday with patchy night and morning fog.  Variable cloudiness late Thursday night and Friday with a small chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.  Variable cloudiness at times Friday night through Monday with patchy night and morning fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 52/29/53/28/58 Reedley 53/30/54/29/57 Dinuba 52/28/54/28/57
Porterville 54/32/54/29/58 Lindsay 53/31/54/28/57 Delano 52/32/54/28/58
Bakersfield 52/40/53/33/56 Taft 52/38/53/34/55 Arvin 52/37/53/31/55
Lamont 52/37/53/33/57 Pixley 53/30/54/28/58 Tulare 52/29/54/28/58
Woodlake 53/29/54/28/57 Hanford 53/29/54/29/57 Orosi 52/29/54/28/57

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Wednesday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

31/63

Thursday

Mostly clear

36/64

 

Friday

Slight chance of showers

42/64

Saturday

Patchy fog/partly cloudy

40/66

Sunday

Variable clouds

44/67

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 14 through November 20:  This model continues to show the trend of below average temperatures over the western U.S.  Even though there’s no strong signature for rain, rain is not ruled out, either, so the chance of precipitation remains low.

 

October:  This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days.  The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest.  This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.

 

October, November, December:   This model reflects the influence of La Nina.  It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California.  Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall.  Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds will increase again for a time today out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH at times.  Stronger gusts are possible, mainly in the vicinity of showers.  Winds will diminish this evening.  Winds from late tonight through Wednesday will be generally at or less than 5 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally less than 10 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion: A very cold, unstable air mass is now above the valley floor.  Expect scattered showers through this evening with a small chance of isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.  Rainfall amounts from now through this evening will range at no more than a tenth or two at most locations.  However, locally heavy showers are possible this afternoon in isolated locations.  If isolated thunderstorms develop, those pockets could see as much as .33.  dry weather will return this evening and continue through Thursday evening.  Most models are now showing a weak cold front  moving down the valley late Thursday into Friday for a small chance of light showers, mainly from Fresno County north.  For now, the weekend looks dry, although stay tuned.

 

Frost Discussion: After months of well above average temperatures, finally the flip side has arrived, leading us into an early season freeze.  Tonight will be quite variable due to wind conditions and possible upslope clouds in Kern and Tulare Counties.  If cloud cover remains dominant, above freezing temperatures will prevail.  The potential of this air mass for river bottom and similar sink hole locations is for temperatures to dip to 27 to28 degrees.  Most flatland locations tonight will range from 29 to 32 degrees.  The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet from 2 to 4 degrees warmer, especially near sunrise.

On Tuesday morning, we anticipate mostly clear skies.  It appears dew points may end up in the 30s at most locations.  This air mass could see the very coldest air mass on Tuesday morning down to 26 to 27 degrees in those known cold spots with most flat terrain ranging from 28 to 32 and hillsides from 31 to 35.  Slight moderation can be expected Wednesday morning, although many locations will remain below freezing.  Readings generally in the 30s are expected Thursday morning.  Expect above freezing conditions for Friday and beyond.

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 8, 2020:

 

Today’s air quality is listed as good for the entire growing area. 

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s.  Kern, Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/63%, Porterville, 94%/71%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .71, Parlier .61, Blackwell Corners .68, Arvin .73, Orange Cove .72, Porterville .60, Delano .58. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 61, Blackwell 71, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 64, Delano 57

Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 69/43

Heating Degree Days This Season: 83,  -84

 

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 59.4  +3.0

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .10,  -.76  Month to Date: .10,  -.13

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .38, +or-  -.05.   Month to date .38,  +.25

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 4, Parlier, 10, Arvin, 0, Shafter, Stratford, 9, Delano, 4, Lindcove, 1, Porterville, 10

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:31 am   Sunset: 4:54 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:24

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  57 /  45 / 0.48 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  56 /  45 / 0.06 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  56 /  46 / 0.10 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  54 /  42 / 0.09 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  59 /  41 / 0.26 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  53 /  46 / 0.38 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  52 /  41 / 0.02 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1552 /  56 /  43 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  51 /  44 / 0.17 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00       T     0    0.00     0     1.18    14.06

MODESTO                          T       T     0    0.00     0     0.96    13.11

MERCED                        0.48    0.48    42    0.00     0     1.14    12.50

MADERA                        0.06    0.06     5    0.00     0     1.19    12.02

FRESNO                        0.10    0.10    12    0.00     0     0.86    11.50

HANFORD                       0.09    0.09    11    0.00     0     0.82    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.38    0.38    88    0.00     0     0.43     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.40     5.18

SALINAS                       0.19    0.24    29    0.00     0     0.83    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.20    0.20    23    0.00     0     0.86    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.23    0.23    27    0.00     0     0.86    13.95

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

30

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

30

McFarland

32

Ducor

33

Tea Pot Dome

32

Lindsay

30

Exeter

29

Famoso

33

Madera

29

Belridge

28

Delano

33

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

29

Orange Cove

29

Lindcove

30

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root creek

28

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

32

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

29

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

af

Kite Road South

af

Kite Road North

af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: November 8/pm