November 7, 2020
Summary: As of the time of this writing, showers were widespread throughout the valley. The center of circulation of the cold core low is right overhead at this hour along with its pool of cold, unstable air. The freezing level which was near 13,000 feet two days ago, is down to 4,600 feet according to the latest balloon sounding above Vandenburg AFB. That would put the snow level down about 4,000 feet or so.
Once the daytime heating process gets underway, we may see another round of showers this afternoon. The activity will taper off by late afternoon with generally dry conditions overnight. Showers will pick up again by mid to late morning Sunday as a rapidly developing low in western Canada dives due south and centers somewhere near Tahoe by midday Sunday. The air associated with this storm is very cold, especially for this early in the season, and should drop snow levels down to near 3,000 feet north of Kern County and 3,500-4,000 feet over the Kern County mountains. Isolated thunderstorms are a possibility Sunday afternoon and evening as the daytime heating effects interacts with that cold pool of air overhead. Models also indicate there will be strong wind energy at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere.
Sunday’s event will pull off into the Desert Southwest Sunday night and Monday, leaving a northerly flow aloft. The next challenge will be widespread below freezing temperatures for the first time this season which is discussed in the frost summary below.
The eastern Pacific high will remain off shore this upcoming week with generally a northwest flow aloft through Friday. There are no significant storms embedded within this flow, so the work week will be dry. Models continue to trend towards a trend next weekend, however, as a very moist jet stream slams into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. This may result in significant amounts of rain over northern California. Most of the medium range models indicate the southern half of the state will remain dry.
Forecast: Showers this morning, tapering off this afternoon. A slight chance of showers tonight into Sunday morning. showers will become likely again from the late morning through the evening with a chance of scattered thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Clearing later Sunday night. Remaining mostly cloudy in Kern County and possibly much of Tulare County into Monday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Friday. Increasing cloudiness Friday night with a chance of showers from Fresno County north Saturday. Expect patchy fog Monday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/40/54/30/56 | Reedley 57/41/54/29/55 | Dinuba 56/39/54/29/55 |
| Porterville 56/40/54/33/56 | Lindsay 57/39/54/32/55 | Delano 57/41/55/34/55 |
| Bakersfield 54/44/52/37/54 | Taft 57/45/52/37/54 | Arvin 54/43/52/35/55 |
| Lamont 54/43/52/35/54 | Pixley 57/50/54/30/56 | Tulare 56/39/54/29/55 |
| Woodlake 57/39/54/28/55 | Hanford 57/41/55/30/56 | Orosi 57/40/54/28/56 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 31/59 |
Wednesday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 32/62
|
Thursday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 33/61 |
Friday
Increasing clouds 38/65 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 45/67 |
Two Week Outlook: November 14 through November 20: This model continues to show the trend of below average temperatures over the western U.S. Even though there’s no strong signature for rain, rain is not ruled out, either, so the chance of precipitation remains low.
October: This model essentially depicts the entire lower 48 with above average temperatures over the next 30 days. The most pronounced temperature anomalies will be over the Desert Southwest. This model also suggests there will be an equal chance of above or below average precipitation.
October, November, December: This model reflects the influence of La Nina. It paints above average temperatures over much of the country, especially the Desert southwest, and to a lesser extent, central California. Drier than average conditions are anticipated over southern California while northern California could possibly luck out with near average rainfall. Above average precipitation is expected over the Pacific Northwest.
Winds Discussion: Winds through tonight will be variable to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, mainly in the vicinity of showers. Winds Sunday will be mainly out of the northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts, diminishing Sunday evening. Winds after midnight Sunday will be generally at or less than 7 MPH. Winds Monday and Tuesday will be variable to 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and morning hours.
Rain Discussion: The following are a few rainfall amounts as of 6:00am: Merced .20, Fresno .04, Visalia .04, Lemoore .08, Buttonwillow .10, Bakersfield .06, and Taft and Shafter each at .04.
As of the time of this writing, showers were fairly widespread throughout the valley. The showers will begin to taper off later this afternoon with a brief dry slot tonight into Sunday morning. Later Sunday morning, the chance of showers will increase from north to south. There will be a chance of isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon and evening. Showers will end Sunday evening, returning dry weather Monday.
Rainfall amounts through Sunday evening will range anywhere from a tenth or two to as much as a third of an inch, especially if isolated thunderstorms develop. Expect dry conditions Monday through Friday. Models continue to point towards a moist jet stream moving from west/northwest into Oregon and northern California this coming weekend. Medium range models continue to show the southern limit of precipitation just north of Fresno County.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing Sunday morning. a very cold low will drop into central California Sunday followed by a northerly flow which will drive cold and drier air into the San Joaquin Valley. For Monday morning, that northerly flow should cause clouds to bank up against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapi Mountains, so cloud cover is certainly possibly over Kern County and possibly against eastern and southeastern Tulare County, although the latter is never a guarantee.
Where skies clear and winds are calm, lows Monday morning in those traditional cold spots have the potential to drop down to 27 to 28 degrees with most flat terrain locations ranging from 29 to 32. Hillsides will come in slightly above freezing.
On Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, below freezing temperatures will be more widespread due to lack of cloud cover and light to calm winds. Lows Tuesday and Wednesday monrings in those unprotected cold regions will drop to 27 to 28 degrees with most flatland locations between 29 and 32. Slow moderation will take place Thursday and Friday.
If we can get enough ground moisture, it would have the potential to nudge up low temperatures a degree or two. Above freezing temperatures can be expected Friday and beyond.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 5, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the growing area.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/39%, Porterville, 88%/35%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 10% Tomorrow: 10%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .78, Parlier .67, Blackwell Corners .76, Arvin .83, Orange Cove .78, Porterville .70, Delano .67. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 62, Blackwell 71, Arvin, 64, Orange Cove 67, Porterville 64, Delano 58
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 69/43
Heating Degree Days This Season: 66, -91
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 61.3 +4.7
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .T, -.83 Month to Date: .00, -.19
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .T, +or- -.41. Month to date .00, -.11
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 0, Parlier, 2, Arvin, 0,Shafter, Stratford, 4, Delano, 4, Lindcove, 0, Porterville, 8
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:30 am Sunset: 4:55 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:26
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1500 / 61 / 48 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1500 / 63 / 45 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 53 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1500 / 67 / 46 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 44 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 71 / 53 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 49 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 65 / 53 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 65 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 50 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON T T 0 0.00 0 1.13 14.06
MODESTO T T 0 0.00 0 0.92 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 1.09 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 1.15 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.82 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.78 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.41 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.39 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.79 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.82 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.82 13.95
Next report: November 7/pm