November 9, 2020
Summary: Outside of some upslope clouds in Kern and eastern Tulare Counties, skies are relatively clear this afternoon. Some high clouds are embedded within a northwesterly flow aloft moving into California which will move overhead tonight, but they won’t be dense enough to slow the radiational cooling process down enough to prevent another freeze night.
The next weather system up stream will move out of the Gulf of Alaska then rapidly through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin Wednesday and Wednesday night. we should see some increase in mid and high level clouds. This should be followed by a stronger storm, this time a milder Pacific storm will affect Oregon and northern California late Thursday night and Friday. Some models have again pulled the rain line down further north and keep the south valley completely dry, but others allow light showers to spread all the way into Kern County. One thing models do agree on is the fact that only light amounts of rain could potentially fall on the valley floor.
From Saturday through Monday, a powerful low will set up shop over British Columbia and Washington state with a very moist jet stream running from west to east into Oregon and northern California. For now, the southern limit of the precipitation shield appears to be a Monterey/Merced/Yosemite line. If medium range models are correct, the jet stream will buckle Tuesday, potentially allowing a strong trough of low pressure and its associated cold front to move through central California. This appears to be our next chance at rain and mountain snow. This will be a mild system with very mild nights and comfortable afternoons.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds and patchy fog later nights and early mornings, it will be mostly clear through Wednesday. becoming partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Increasing clouds Thursday night with a chance of light showers after midnight from Fresno County north. A chance of light showers Friday. Variable cloudiness Friday night through Monday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/57/29/59 | Reedley 28/58/30/60 | Dinuba 27/57/29/58 | |
| Porterville 28/57/29/60 | Lindsay 27/57/29/59 | Delano 29/57/31/60 | |
| Bakersfield 35/55/37/60 | Taft 38/56/40/59 | Arvin 30/58/31/60 | |
| Lamont 30/57/32/60 | Pixley 29/58/30/59 | Tulare 27/57/29/58 | |
| Woodlake 28/57/29/59 | Hanford 29/58/31/60 | Orosi 27/57/29/59 | |
Winds: Winds during the afternoon will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain: Models vary as far as the southern limit of light showers for late Thursday night and Friday. We’ll maintain the same general theme we put out this morning in calling for a chance of light showers, especially from Fresno County northward. However, I wouldn’t rule out a chance of light showers in the south valley, as well. All the models agree that if showers do occur, amounts on the valley floor will be pretty scant. The Pacific Northwest and northern California will pick up potentially heavy amounts of rain from Saturday through Wednesday of next week. Medium range models show the jet stream buckling Monday night and Tuesday, allowing a strong trough of low pressure to move through which may be the next chance of significant precipitation for central California.
Frost: Dew points this afternoon are generally ranging between 30 and 35 degrees so the air mass on the valley floor is marginally dry. I’ve certainly seen much worse, but considering the character of this air mass, and the fact that temperatures are only in the mid 50s, widespread upper 20s and lower 30s are a given tonight.
Coldest unprotected regions will drop down to 26 to 27 degrees with most flatland locations between 28 and 31. Hillsides will generally be in the low to mid 30s.
The inversion tonight will be somewhat stronger with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations. Temperatures at the coldest locations will reach the freezing mark between 10:00 and 11:00 pm and 28 degrees around 3:00am. Temperatures will rise above freezing around 8:30 or 9:00 Tuesday morning. only slow moderation can be expected for Wednesday morning with the coldest locations down to 28 to 29 or so with most locations in the lower 30s.
Currently it looks like we’ll have enough cloud cover Wednesday night and Thursday morning to keep most locations above freezing. For Friday and beyond, a mild pattern will set up with heavy cloud cover from time to time with a westerly flow aloft moving in higher dew points and warmer temperatures. For now, medium range models do not show a pattern that would call for a repeat of our current pattern.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
29 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
33 |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
30 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
28 |
| Edison
31 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 10/morning