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Forecast

November 10, 2020/pm update

November 10, 2020

Summary: Temperatures this afternoon are generally 2 to 4 degrees warmer than at this time yesterday.  Above the valley floor, temperatures are significantly warmer.  Blue Canyon at 5,600 feet is 8 degrees warmer while Sandburg at 4,100 feet is up 9 degrees from yesterday at this time.  The visible satellite shot this afternoon is a nice  one to see as a mantle of snow is clearly seen over the high Sierra.  The latest weather system is now moving through the Pacific Northwest and will dive into the northern Rockies tonight and Wednesday.  there is a mass of mid and high level clouds off the coast of northern California which might affect overnight temperatures, mainly from Fresno County north.

 

The next weather system will spread showers down to about a Bay Area/Stockton line Thursday night and Friday.  I feel comfortable taking precipitation out of the forecast through Monday of next week even though yet another system will spread showers over northern California Friday night and Saturday.  I still feel Tuesday, or a week from today, will our  best bet at receiving valley rain and mountain snow.  Models still show the jet stream buckling, allowing a trough of low pressure oriented from northeast to southwest to move through central California Tuesday into Wednesday.  after Wednesday, models show the pattern becoming dry once again.

 

So far in this early rainfall season the overall pattern is mimicking a La Nina pattern with the main storm track at the Pacific Northwest and affecting northern California from time to time while the southern half of the state remains dry.

 

Forecast: Occasional high clouds and a few patches of late night and early morning fog, otherwise it’ll be mostly clear through Wednesday night.  partly cloudy Thursday after patchy morning fog.  Variable cloudiness Thursday night through Saturday.  Mostly clear Saturday night through Monday.  Increasing cloudiness Monday night leading to a chance of showers Tuesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 31/59/34/61 Reedley 31/58/35/62 Dinuba 30/.58/33/61
Porterville 31/60/34/62 Lindsay 30/59/33/61 Delano 31/60/34/62
Bakersfield 37/59/41/62 Taft 40/60/43/62 Arvin 33/60/35/62
Lamont 32/59/35/62 Pixley 30/59/34/61 Tulare 29/58/33/61
Woodlake 30/58/33/60 Hanford 32/60/35/62 Orosi 29/58/33/61

 

Winds: Winds during the afternoon will be variable to no more than 10 MPH.  Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  It now appears our next chance of rain will not occur until late Monday night and Tuesday of next week.  In the meantime, two storms will pass by to our north: one Thursday night and one Friday with another Friday night and Saturday.  upper level high pressure will move in from the west Saturday night through Sunday night.  A west to east jet stream will buckle Monday night, allowing a northeast to southwest oriented trough to move through Tuesday.  Models do vary on the timing, but do seem to agree that rain has a chance to spread all the way down the valley with dry weather returning thereafter.

 

Frost:  Air temperatures this afternoon are generally 2 to 4 degrees higher than yesterday at this time.  Dew points are roughly the same with most locations indicating dew points in the mid 30s.  we are also watching a batch of mid and high level clouds near the northern California coast which might be enough to effect tonight’s outcome, especially north of Tulare County, however if pressure remains high enough over central and southern California much of this cloud cover will dissipate as it advances inland.

 

The very coldest unprotected river bottom and similar locations will chill down to 27 to 28 degrees with most flatland regions ranging from 29 to 33. Hillsides will be generally in the mid 30s.  the inversion tonight will be decent with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

Temperatures Thursday morning should be generally above freezing.  It’s possible coldest low lying areas could dip down to 30 or so but with most locations in the low to mid 30s.  For Friday and beyond, a west/northwest flow will pump milder air into the region, ending further chances for subfreezing weather through at least mid week next week and possibly beyond.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

30

Porterville

31

Ivanhoe

29

Woodlake

30

Strathmore

30

McFarland

32

Ducor

32

Tea Pot Dome

30

Lindsay

29

Exeter

30

Famoso

32

Madera

31

Belridge

30

Delano

31

North Bakersfield

31

Orosi

29

Orange Cove

30

Lindcove

29

Lindcove hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

27

Root Creek

29

Venice Hill

30

Rosedale

31

Jasmine

32

Arvin

33

Lamont

33

Plainview

30

Mettler

Af

Edison

33

Maricopa

30

Holland Creek

32

Tivy Valley

29

Kite Road South

32

Kite Road North

29

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 11/morning