November 11, 2020
Summary: Temperatures this morning are running about 2 to 4 degrees warmer than 24 hours ago. Even so, a number of locations are still at or below the freezing mark. We’ll talk about further frost possibilities in the frost section below.
There are two areas of low pressure we’re monitoring this morning. The first moved through the Pacific Northwest yesterday and is now moving into the northern Rockies. The second is a weak upper air disturbance several hundred miles off the central coast which is moving southeastward towards southern California. It’s possible that, as this system brushes central California later tonight and Thursday, some sprinkles could occur over the high Sierra, but no rain is expected for the valley floor.
From Friday through Monday, what we call a zonal flow will set up across the eastern Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest and northern California. The next wet weather system will spread showers down to roughly a Bay Area/Stockton line Friday night and Saturday. Further impulses will move from west to east further north, meaning central California will have a rather pleasant weekend coming up.
We are still looking at next Tuesday into Wednesday for our next chance of precipitation as the zonal flow buckles, allowing the main trough of low pressure to dig further south and move through central California. I must say, though, that some models this morning are showing the chance of rain as being less than previously projected. We’ll emphasize the word chance.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy today and tonight. variable cloudiness at times Thursday through Saturday with patchy late night and early morning fog. Mostly clear Saturday night through Sunday night with patchy night and morning fog. Increasing cloudiness late Monday leading to a slight chance of showers Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 59/33/62/37/63 | Reedley 60/33/62/37/64 | Dinuba 59/33/61/36/62 |
| Porterville 60/33/62/37/63 | Lindsay 59/33/62/36/63 | Delano 60/35/62/38/63 |
| Bakersfield 61/42/63/44/64 | Taft 60/46/62/47/63 | Arvin 61/36/62/38/63 |
| Lamont 61/37/62/30/64 | Pixley 59/34/62/37/63 | Tulare 58/33/62/35/62 |
| Woodlake 58/33/61/36/62 | Hanford 60/36/63/38/64 | Orosi 59/32/61/35/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Saturday
Variable clouds 40/68 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 41/67 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 42/70 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 47/73 |
Wednesday
Slight chance of showers 48/71 |
Two Week Outlook: November 18 through November 24: This model has flipped back to a pattern more conducive for below average temperatures during this time frame. Fortunately, it also indicates the chance of precipitation will be higher than average.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: It still appears our next chance at legitimate rain may occur Tuesday and Wednesday of next week. Models show the jet stream buckling, allowing the main trough of low pressure to move through, however I must admit some of the newer medium range models are backing off on the southern limit of precipitation. No doubt, models will flip flop back and forth over the next few days.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures at most locations this morning are running 2 to 3 degrees milder than 24 hours ago. Even so, coldest unprotected locations are still dipping into the mid to upper 20s. we continue to monitor a wide area of mid and high level clouds off shore. Some of then will be streaming overhead tonight. if the cloud cover remains dense enough, all locations will remain above freezing. If not, the very coldest, unprotected region will dip no lower than 30 to 31 or so. Many locations will remain above freezing tonight, even if skies are relatively clear. Tonight will be the last frost threat for a while as the winds aloft become more westerly. There will be a great deal of cloud cover from time to time Thursday through Saturday. by early next week, temperatures will be above average and for now there’s no pattern on the horizon that would favor subfreezing temperatures after tonight.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 11, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as good for Merced, Madera, and Tulare Counties. The air quality is listed as moderate for Fresno, Kings, and Kern Counties.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, Mid to upper 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/70%, Porterville, 99%/39%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 70% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .64, Parlier .49, Blackwell Corners .61, Arvin .60, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .49, Delano .42. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 62, Parlier 58, Blackwell 67, Arvin, 62, Orange Cove 64, Porterville 60, Delano 54
Record Temperatures: 84/31. Average Temperatures: 67/42
Heating Degree Days This Season: 142, -57
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature For This Month So Far: 55.2 -0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .11, -.85 Month to Date: .11, -.22
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.10. Month to date .39, +.20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 26, Parlier, 33, Arvin, 16, Shafter, 19, Stratford, 38, Delano, 25, Lindcove, 26, Porterville, 33
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:34 am Sunset: 4:51 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:18
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 31 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 59 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 60 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 60 / 28 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 60 / 30 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1600 / 58 / 34 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 60 / 33 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 1.34 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 1.08 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.48 38 0.00 0 1.26 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.06 5 0.00 0 1.31 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.11 11 0.00 0 0.96 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.09 9 0.00 0 0.95 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 80 0.00 0 0.49 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.45 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.24 26 0.00 0 0.94 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.26 27 0.00 0 0.96 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.24 24 0.00 0 0.99 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
31 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
32 |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root creek
31 |
Venice hill
32 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
32 |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 11/pm