November 10, 2020
Summary: A second night of subfreezing temperatures as readings were pretty similar to those of the previous night with widespread upper 20s and lower 30s. the air aloft is certainly beginning to moderate. Freezing levels have gone from just over 4,000 feet 24 hours ago to 9,500 feet this morning, according to the latest balloon sounding above Oakland. More in the frost discussion below.
The latest weather system to move out of the eastern Gulf of Alaska is now moving into the Pacific Northwest, but will trudge eastward into the northern and central Rockies Wednesday. Two more Pacific storms will move out of the Gulf of Alaska, affecting northern California later Thursday night and Friday. Yet another will move out late Friday night and Saturday. the chance of rain from any of these systems now appears to be very low as most models are now showing them moving more along an eastward track rather than southeastward.
From Friday through Monday, a westerly flow will set up along the eastern Pacific and into California with much milder air being the result. It’s possible that by next Tuesday and Wednesday the jet stream will begin to buckle, allowing a stronger trough of low pressure to move through. This looks to be our next best shot at significant precipitation in central California.
In the meantime, as each day goes by, afternoon temperatures will become more pleasant, eventually pushing the 70 degree mark, if not this weekend then early next week. It’s hard to believe that 70 degrees is above average, however we’re deep enough into November for average temperatures to be in the mid to upper 60s. the two week model has again flipped back in indicating temperatures will slide below average again with a reasonably decent chance of precip between the 17 and the 23.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, and patchy late night and morning fog, it will be mostly clear through Wednesday. partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Variable clouds at times Thursday through Saturday with only a slight chance of sprinkles or light showers from Fresno County north later Thursday night and Friday. Partly cloudy Saturday night through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night with a chance of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 57/30/59/34/62 | Reedley 58/31/59/34/62 | Dinuba 57/30/59/33/61 |
| Porterville 57/30/60/33/62 | Lindsay 58/30/59/33/62 | Delano 58/31/60/34/62 |
| Bakersfield 57/38/60/41/62 | Taft 56/40/59/45/61 | Arvin 58/32/59/35/63 |
| Lamont 58/33/59/37/63 | Pixley 57/30/59/33/62 | Tulare 57/29/59/32/62 |
| Woodlake 57/29/59/32/61 | Hanford 58/31/59/34/62 | Orosi 57/29/59/33/60 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly cloudy 39/64 |
Saturday
Mostly cloudy 41/68
|
Sunday
Partly cloudy 41/67 |
Monday
Increasing clouds 44/70 |
Tuesday
Chance of showers 48/68 |
Two Week Outlook: November 17 through November 23: This model has flipped back to a pattern more conducive for below average temperatures during this time frame. Fortunately, it also indicates the chance of precipitation will be higher than average.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the afternoon will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Thursday evening and more than likely for the remainder of the week. Even before models were indicating the chance of rain was pretty low for late Thursday night and Friday. If you even things out this morning, the chance is even less and even then from Merced County north. It appears our next shot at precipitation will occur about Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. Models indicate the jet stream will begin to buckle and move southward into northern and central California. On paper, there looks to be a reasonably decent chance of rain during this period, so we’ll see if this trend continues.
Frost Discussion: Upper 20s and lower 30s were again widespread throughout the region this morning. the air above the valley floor has risen markedly over the past 24 hours with freezing levels jumping over 5,000 feet. However, with the low sun angle and the much shorter days along with relatively low dew points, another night of below freezing conditions can be expected at most location, although moderating perhaps 1 to 2 degrees.
Coldest unprotected territory will dip down to 28 to 29 degrees with most flatland locations around 30 to 33 degrees. Hillsides will generally be above freezing. A decent inversion will prevail tonight with temperatures at 34 feet from 4 to 8 degrees warmer. Temperatures Thursday morning will be at least marginally milder and perhaps substantially milder. Clouds ahead of the next weather system will begin to increase over central California. Some models show these clouds arriving after midnight, in which case all locations will be above freezing. At any rate, after Thursday morning expect above freezing conditions through at least early next week and possibly beyond.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 10, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as good for the entire growing area except for Kern County where the air quality is listed as moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/84%, Porterville, 97%/57%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .68, Parlier .55, Blackwell Corners .68, Arvin .71, Orange Cove .62, Porterville .55, Delano .51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 63, Parlier 61, Blackwell 70, Arvin, 63, Orange Cove 66, Porterville 63, Delano 56
Record Temperatures: 85/33. Average Temperatures: 68/42
Heating Degree Days This Season: 101, -76
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 57.9 +1.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .11, -.78 Month to Date: .11, -.15
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.06. Month to date .39, +.24
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 11, Parlier, 18, Arvin, 4, Shafter,n 5, Stratford, 23, Delano, 4, Lindcove, 10, Porterville, 10
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:32 am Sunset: 4:53 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:22
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 42 / T /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 60 / 43 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 46 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 59 / 41 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 61 / 39 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 58 / 47 / 0.01 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 43 / 0.01 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1548 / 59 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 46 / 0.02 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON T T 0 0.00 0 1.24 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 1.00 13.11
MERCED T 0.48 41 0.00 0 1.18 12.50
MADERA T 0.06 5 0.00 0 1.23 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 0.11 12 0.00 0 0.89 11.50
HANFORD T 0.09 10 0.00 0 0.87 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.01 0.39 87 0.00 0 0.45 6.47
BISHOP T T 0 0.00 0 0.42 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.24 28 0.00 0 0.87 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.06 0.26 29 0.00 0 0.89 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 0.24 27 0.00 0 0.90 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
31 |
North Bakersfield
31 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root creek
29 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
32 |
Jasmine
32 |
| Arvin
33 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
29 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 10/pm