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Forecast

November 12, 2020/report

November 12, 2020

Summary: Temperatures were a bit milder last night due to in and out cloud cover.  Most frost stations were above freezing.  Only the coldest locations will fall to near the freezing mark tonight.

 

For today, we are sandwiched between a weak upper air disturbance moving into southern California which was responsible for the high clouds overnight and the next low pressure system moving out of the north Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest.  This is a fast moving system and will spread showers over northern California Friday.  Most of the models this morning show the rain line north of roughly a Monterey/Merced/Kings Canyon line.  It’s possible an isolated shower or light sprinkle could occur as far south as Fresno County Friday night and early Saturday.

 

On Saturday night and Sunday, a new high center will form off the central coast then will move eastward, centering right over central California Sunday night into early Tuesday.  With generally a weak westerly flow in the upper atmosphere and warm descending air due to the high, temperatures will top 70 Monday through Wednesday.  Earlier models had indicated the possibility of a trough of low pressure moving through about Tuesday into Wednesday.  these same models this morning ar enow indicating that trough will move through closer to Thursday.  Outside of the chance of a few sprinkles late tomorrow and tomorrow night, at least the next six days will be dry, and possibly seven.

 

 

Forecast: Mostly clear today and tonight with occasional high clouds.  Increasing clouds Friday.  A slight chance of a few sprinkles from Fresno County north late Friday afternoon into early Saturday.  Clearing later Saturday morning.  mostly clear Saturday afternoon through Tuesday night with patchy night and early morning fog.  Partly cloudy Wednesday.  Variable cloudiness Wednesday night and Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 63/34/64/45/64 Reedley 63/34/65/45/63 Dinuba 62/33/63/44/63
Porterville 64/34/64/46/65 Lindsay 62/33/63/44/64 Delano 64/35/64/46/65
Bakersfield 64/44/64/49/63 Taft 62/45/64/50/62 Arvin 64/38/64/48/63
Lamont 64/39/64/48/62 Pixley 63/33/64/44/64 Tulare 62/32/64/44/63
Woodlake 62/33/64/45/63 Hanford 64/34/64/44/63 Orosi 62/32/64/43/62

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

39/65

Monday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

40/67

Tuesday

Patchy fog/mostly clear

41/75

Wednesday

Increasing clouds

51/73

Thursday

Variable clouds

44/67

 

Two Week Outlook:  November 19 through November 25:  This model has flipped back to a pattern more conducive for below average temperatures during this time frame.  Fortunately, it also indicates the chance of precipitation will be higher than average.

 

Winds Discussion:  Winds during the afternoon will be variable to no more than 10 MPH.  Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion: It is possible a few sprinkles or isolated light showers could reach as far south as Fresno County late Friday afternoon through early Saturday.  anything measurable, however, will l ikely stay north of a Monterey/Merced line.  Later Saturday through Wednesday of next week will be dry.  On the average each successive medium range model that comes out pushes back the chance of rain.  If these models are correct, and since there has been very poor model continuity lately, this is a low confidence call but we could see a chance of rain next Thursday.  Unfortunately, longer range models really do not show a pattern which would result in significant precipitation for central California.

 

Frost Discussion:  In and out high clouds last night in part helped keep temperatures above freezing.  Skies tonight will be mostly clear through at least the early morning hours, so coldest locations tonight could drop down to 30 to 32 or so.  Most locations, however, will range from between 33 and 37 degrees.  From Saturday morning and beyond, there will be no chance of frost for at least the following week to ten days.

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 12, 2020:

 

Today’s air quality is listed as good for the Frazier Park region of Kern County.  The air quality for the remainder of the valley is moderate.    

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern, Upper 30s to the lower 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/41%, Porterville, 99%/36%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 30%.  Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .58, Parlier .47, Blackwell Corners .58, Arvin .56, Orange Cove .51, Porterville .46, Delano .40. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 61, Parlier 57, Blackwell 65, Arvin, 61, Orange Cove 63, Porterville 58, Delano 53

Record Temperatures: 81/29. Average Temperatures: 67/41

Heating Degree Days This Season: 161,  -49

 

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.3 -1.3

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .11,  -.89  Month to Date: .11,  -.26

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .39, +or-  -.12.   Month to date .39,  +.18

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 26, Parlier, 33, Arvin, 16, Shafter, 19, Stratford, 38, Delano, 25, Lindcove, 26, Porterville, 33

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:35 am   Sunset: 4:51 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:17

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  59 /  34 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  60 /  36 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  60 /  39 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  60 /  31 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  60 /  30 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  62 /  39 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  60 /  34 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1526 /  60 /  34 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  62 /  36 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  57 /  36 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00       T     0    0.00     0     1.40    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00       T     0    0.00     0     1.12    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.48    37    0.00     0     1.30    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.06     4    0.00     0     1.35    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.11    11    0.00     0     1.00    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.09     9    0.00     0     0.98    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.39    76    0.00     0     0.51     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.47     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.24    24    0.00     0     0.98    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.26    26    0.00     0     0.99    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.24    23    0.00     0     1.03    13.95

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

32

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

32

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root creek

32

Venice hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: November 12/pm