November 15, 2020
Summary: Infrared satellite imagery shows widespread fog all the way from the Delta southward into northern Kern County. Most of the fog is towards the center and west side of the valley, but there is some locally elsewhere. Visalia, Hanford, and Merced were each reporting a visibility of less than .25 of a mile as of the time of this writing. Satellite imagery also shows a wide zone of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific extending inland over central and southern California. The latest Pacific storm is moving onshore into the Pacific Northwest this morning, however the thrust of this system is eastward and not southeastward. The high will center over southern California and northern Baja Monday. Also, surface pressures will be higher over interior southern California than the southern San Joaquin Valley late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday. We’ll have to watch this closely as occasionally this configuration can spawn some localized strong, gusty winds in the south valley. The downslope compressional heating effect will also drive temperatures well above average Monday and Tuesday, especially in Kern county.
A trough of low pressure and its associated cold front will move through the valley late Tuesday night and Wednesday. there will be a chance of light showers north of Kern County, however amounts on the valley floor with generally be pretty scant.
As we move to this coming weekend, models are all over the place, ranging from a chance of rain to a completely dry pattern. For now, we’ll go forward with a dry forecast and hopefully see models come into more agreement.
Forecast: Mostly clear with areas of night and morning fog, especially up the center of the valley, through Monday night. Increasing clouds late Tuesday leading to a chance of light showers north of Kern County late Tuesday night and Wednesday. there will be locally strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley late Monday afternoon and Monday night. Partly to mostly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Sunday with areas of night and morning clouds and fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/36/67/39/72 | Reedley 65/36/68/40/73 | Dinuba 64/35/67/39/71 |
| Porterville 65/35/68/39/76 | Lindsay 65/35/69/40/75 | Delano 66/39/68/42/75 |
| Bakersfield 66/44/70/55/78 | Taft 64/47/71/55/77 | Arvin 65/40/72/42/78 |
| Lamont 65/50/68/48/77 | Pixley 64/35/68/39/75 | Tulare 64/35/67/39/73 |
| Woodlake 64/34/68/38/73 | Hanford 65/36/68/40/74 | Orosi 64/34/68/38/73s |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Light showers possible 49/67 |
Thursday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 42/65 |
Friday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 39/65 |
Saturday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 38/63 |
Sunday
Patchy fog/partly cloudy 35/64 |
Two Week Outlook: November 21 through the 27th: This model is indicating temperatures during this time frame will again fall below average. This model does not favor either above or below average precipitation, so at least a minimal chance of rain is possible.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be light to near calm through Monday morning. high resolution models for later Monday afternoon and night are indicating about a 5 to 6 millibar difference in pressure between the high deserts and the southern San Joaquin Valley. This configuration is a tricky one and has in the past spawned some strong, gusty, southeast winds blowing downslope and onto the extreme southern San Joaquin Valley at places like the bottom of the Grapevine. It’s always something of a toss of the dice, however it is possible that winds in excess of 40 MPH could push down the valley late Monday and Monday night. elsewhere, light winds will continue.
Rain Discussion: For now, it appears the only chance of rain will be late Tuesday night and Wednesday north of Kern County and especially from Fresno County north. If precipitation occurs at all, generally less than .10 can be expected. Dry weather will prevail Wednesday and through the remainder of the week. There are some differences on pattern solutions for the upcoming weekend, but until we see some model consistency, we’ll go with a dry forecast.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 15, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Fresno, Tulare, and Kern Counties. The remainder of the growing area will have good air quality.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Kern, Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 92%/50%, Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .49, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .62, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .NA, Delano .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 54, Blackwell 63, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 56, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 79/30. Average Temperatures: 65/40
Heating Degree Days This Season: 196, -51
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.0 -1.0
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .11, -1.00, Month to Date: .11, -.37
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.18. Month to date .39, +.12
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 67, Parlier, 78, Arvin, 55, Shafter, 57, Stratford, 75, Delano, 68, Lindcove, 71, Porterville, 80
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:39 am Sunset: 4:49 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:11
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 61 / 44 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 48 / T /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 47 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 46 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 66 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 68 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1553 / 66 / 44 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 68 / 41 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 1.56 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 1.25 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.48 34 0.00 0 1.41 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.06 4 0.00 0 1.46 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.11 10 0.00 0 1.11 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.09 8 0.00 0 1.08 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 68 0.00 0 0.57 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.52 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.30 27 0.00 0 1.12 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.26 24 0.00 0 1.09 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.24 21 0.00 0 1.16 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 16