November 16, 2020
Summary: The center of circulation is over northern Baja and southern California this morning. the air aloft is quite cozy, especially for this late in the fall season. The freezing level is all the way up to 14,500 feet, according to the latest balloon sounding over Vandenburg AFB.
In the meantime, a fairly robust low pressure system is approaching the coast of Vancouver Island. Its associated trough of low pressure sweeps southward to off the central California coast. As pressures fall to our west, an off shore pressure gradient will set up between higher pressure over the interior and falling pressure off shore. This will generate Santa Ana winds in southern California. There are high resolution short term models that indicate some of these winds may spill downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains, creating some localized gusty southeast winds in places like Arvin, Edison, Maricopa, and especially near the bottom of the Grapevine. Sometimes these winds make it all the way down to the valley floor. Even if these winds do not materialize, the compressional heating effect of down slope winds will drive temperatures in Kern County Tuesday to near 80 degrees.
As the trough moves on shore, it will weaken rapidly, resulting only in a chance of showers north of Kern County, and especially from Fresno County north. After this system moves into the interior west Wednesday night, a westerly flow will set up across the Pacific,, however the storm track will migrate back into the Pacific Northwest so after Wednesday, the remainder of the week will be dry with fairly seasonal temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear through late this evening. Becoming partly cloudy after midnight. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday. A chance of light showers later Tuesday night and Wednesday north of Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday morning. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Monday of next week with areas of night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 68/39/74/46/67 | Reedley 69/39/76/47/67 | Dinuba 67/38/74/45/66 |
| Porterville 71/39/78/48/68 | Lindsay 69/38/75/47/67 | Delano 70/43/78/48/68 |
| Bakersfield 72/54/81/52/68 | Taft 72/55/80/55/67 | Arvin 74/45/78/52/67 |
| Lamont 72/47/80/48/67 | Pixley 70/40/76/47/68 | Tulare 67/39/75/45/66 |
| Woodlake 68/39/75/46/67 | Hanford 69/41/77/49/68 | Orosi 67/38/75/46/66 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy 43/64 |
Friday
Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy 40/63 |
Saturday
Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy 37/62 |
Sunday
Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy 36/63 |
Monday
Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy 36/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 21 through the 27th: This model is indicating temperatures during this time frame will again fall below average. This model does not favor either above or below average precipitation, so at least a minimal chance of rain is possible.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be variable to no more than 10 MPH throughout the valley today and north of Kern County through Thursday. For a time tonight through Tuesday, a fairly strong off shore configuration will develop. There are still high resolution, short term models that indicate a chance of some localized gusty Santa Ana winds making it into the extreme south valley with gusts as strong as 35 MPH possible. If these winds do make it all the way down the hill, they should end by Tuesday afternoon as pressure gradients begin to slacken. Light winds can be expected throughout the valley late Tuesday night through Thursday.
Rain Discussion: A weakening trough of low pressure and its associated cold front will move down the valley late Tuesday night and Wednesday. This will be a meager event with a chance of light showers north of Kern County and mainly from Fresno County north. Even in Madera and Fresno Counties, no more than .10 is anticipated. From Wednesday night through the weekend, expect dry conditions. For now there doesn’t look to be a pattern in the near future that would bring much needed precipitation.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above freezing.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 16, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for the entire growing area.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 50s. Kern, Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/55%, Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 40%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .57, Parlier .53, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .62, Orange Cove .53, Porterville .NA, Delano .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 60, Parlier 54, Blackwell 63, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 56, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 81/27. Average Temperatures: 65/40
Heating Degree Days This Season: 207, -53
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.0 -0.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .11, -1.03, Month to Date: .11, -.40
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.20. Month to date .39, +.10
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 74, Parlier, 88, Arvin, 63, Shafter, 58, Stratford, 85, Delano, 77, Lindcove, 81, Porterville, 85
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:40 am Sunset: 4:48 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:10
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 67 / 37 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 68 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 68 / 40 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 67 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1515 / 67 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 1.61 14.06
MODESTO T T 0 0.00 0 1.29 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.48 33 0.00 0 1.44 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.06 4 0.00 0 1.50 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.11 10 0.00 0 1.14 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.09 8 0.00 0 1.11 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 66 0.00 0 0.59 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.54 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.30 26 0.00 0 1.17 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.26 23 0.00 0 1.12 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.24 20 0.00 0 1.21 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 16/pm