November 17, 2020
Summary: This is one of those mornings where this meteorologist wishes he was out of the office and on a particular point on the planet. Grapevine Peak in Kern County would definitely give me pleasure. As of 6:00am, winds were sustained at 58, gusting to 81 MPH. So far these winds have not made it down to the valley floor. I just checked the CHP weather station at the bottom of the Grapevine where winds were still relatively light. Other locations on the Kern County portion of the valley floor were reporting winds of generally less than 15 MPH. this may change over the next 6 to 8 hours as high resolution models continue to indicate localized, strong gusty winds near the base of the Tehachapi’s and possibly at the I-5 corridor where winds could gust to 30 to 40 MPH.
The cold front and its associated trough of low pressure will move through the valley late tonight and Wednesday morning. models have not changed much as far as potential rainfall amounts go. Strong down sloping off the mountains in Kern County should dry out the air considerably, preventing precipitation from reaching the ground.
Further north, light showers are likely in Fresno and Madera Counties with perhaps a few hundredths in Kings and Tulare Counties.
Models indicate a roughly 100 knot jet stream will be over central California late Wednesday night through Thursday as much cooler air overspreads the region. Some locations in Kern County today may hit the 80 degree mark due to down slope compressional heating. A weaker trough will move from west to east across the region Friday night but with no precipitation. A northwest to southeast flow will keep temperatures in check over the weekend and into early next week as the storm track migrates north into British Columbia and Washington state.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness this afternoon. Light showers tonight and Wednesday north of Kern County. Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday. Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night with patchy morning fog. Partly cloudy Saturday through Tuesday with patchy night and morning fog.
Short Term:
| Madera 72/48/64/41/61 | Reedley 76/48/65/42/62 | Dinuba 74/47/64/41/61 |
| Porterville 78/48/65/42/61 | Lindsay 74/48/64/40/62 | Delano 78/49/65/43/61 |
| Bakersfield 81/53/65/52/59 | Taft 77/52/65/49/62 | Arvin 78/50/65/47/58 |
| Lamont 80/50/65/47/59 | Pixley 77/48/65/42/72 | Tulare 75/48/64/40/61 |
| Woodlake 75/48/65/41/61 | Hanford 76/49/65/42/62 | Orosi 74/47/65/41/61 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
Mostly cloudy 40/63 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 35/62 |
Sunday
Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy 34/61 |
Monday
Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy 33/61 |
Tuesday
Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy 36/62 |
Two Week Outlook: November 24 through November 30th: This model covers the last week of November and is calling for seasonal temperatures. Above average rain fall is projected north of Fresno County with below average precip for the remainder of the region.
Winds Discussion: We still need to closely monitor the extreme south valley over the next couple of hours. So far, the winds have been confined to roughly upwards of the 3,000 foot mark but that could change as the day progresses. Wind gusts to near 50 MPH are possible near the base of the Tehachapi’s through this afternoon, but I must emphasize the word possible. Elsewhere, winds will generally be out of the south to southwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH possible. Winds tonight will be mainly out of the south at 8 to 15 with stronger gusts, continuing Wednesday. From Wednesday night through Friday, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH during the late morning through the afternoon hours. During the night through midmorning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Light showers will spread from west to east over the valley tonight north of Kern County. A few sprinkles are possible in Kern County, but no measurable rain is expected. A rain shadow will develop along the west side, so generally at or less than .06 is expected over Kings County and much of Tulare County. In eastern Fresno and Madera Counties, .10 to .25 is possible. Light showers will continue Wednesday with dry weather Wednesday night and, if models are correct, for the next 7 to 10 days thereafter.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be well above 32 degrees tonight. above freezing conditions will prevail Thursday morning, as well. From Friday through Sunday, if skies are generally clear, coldest low lying properties will drop to near the freezing mark for short durations. Most of the typical flat land regions will chill down to 33 to 39 degrees with hillsides in the 40s. For now, there’s nothing on the horizon suggesting a cold weather pattern coming up.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 17, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Merced, Madera, and Fresno Counties. Today’s air quality is unhealthy for sensitive groups in Tulare, Kings, and Kern Counties.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/44%, Porterville, 98%/41%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .54, Blackwell Corners .57, Arvin .63, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .54, Delano .51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 55, Blackwell 61, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 56, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 81/29. Average Temperatures: 64/40
Heating Degree Days This Season: 217, -56
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.1 -0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .11, -1.07, Month to Date: .11, -.44
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.22. Month to date .39, +.08
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 74, Parlier, 88, Arvin, 63, Shafter, 58, Stratford, 85, Delano, 77, Lindcove, 81, Porterville, 85
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:40 am Sunset: 4:48 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:08
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1500 / 57 / 36 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1500 / 60 / 38 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1500 / 58 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1500 / 52 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 71 / 59 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 52 / 46 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 56 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 62 / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 61 / 39 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 68 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 1.67 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 1.33 13.11
MERCED 0.00 0.48 32 0.00 0 1.48 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.06 4 0.00 0 1.54 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.11 9 0.00 0 1.18 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.09 8 0.00 0 1.15 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 64 0.00 0 0.61 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.00 0 0.56 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.30 25 0.00 0 1.22 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.26 23 0.00 0 1.15 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.24 19 0.00 0 1.25 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
Af |
| Root creek
Af |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 17/pm