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November 17, 2020/report

November 17, 2020

Summary: This is one of those mornings where this meteorologist wishes he was out of the office and on a particular point on the planet.  Grapevine Peak in Kern County would definitely give me pleasure.  As of 6:00am, winds were sustained at 58, gusting to 81 MPH.  So far these winds have not made it down to the valley floor.  I just checked the CHP weather station at the bottom of the Grapevine where winds were still relatively light.  Other locations on the Kern County portion of the valley floor were reporting winds of generally less than 15 MPH.  this may change over the next 6 to 8 hours as high resolution models continue to indicate localized, strong  gusty winds near the base of the Tehachapi’s and possibly at the I-5 corridor where winds could gust to 30 to 40 MPH.


The cold front and its associated trough of low pressure will move through the valley late tonight and  Wednesday morning.  models have not changed much as far as potential rainfall amounts go.  Strong down sloping off the mountains in Kern County should dry out the air considerably, preventing precipitation from reaching the ground.


Further north, light showers are likely in Fresno and Madera Counties with perhaps a few hundredths in Kings and Tulare Counties.


Models indicate a roughly 100 knot jet stream will be over central California late Wednesday night through Thursday as much cooler air overspreads the region.  Some locations in Kern County today may hit the 80 degree mark due to down slope compressional heating.  A weaker trough will move from west to east across the region Friday night but with no precipitation.  A northwest to southeast flow will keep temperatures in check over the weekend and into early next week as the storm track migrates north into British Columbia and Washington state.


Forecast:  Increasing cloudiness this afternoon.  Light showers tonight and Wednesday north of Kern County.  Mostly to partly cloudy Wednesday night and Thursday.  Partly cloudy Friday and Friday night with patchy morning fog.  Partly cloudy Saturday through Tuesday with patchy night and morning fog.    


Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 72/48/64/41/61 Reedley 76/48/65/42/62 Dinuba 74/47/64/41/61
Porterville 78/48/65/42/61 Lindsay 74/48/64/40/62 Delano 78/49/65/43/61
Bakersfield 81/53/65/52/59 Taft 77/52/65/49/62 Arvin 78/50/65/47/58
Lamont 80/50/65/47/59 Pixley 77/48/65/42/72 Tulare 75/48/64/40/61
Woodlake 75/48/65/41/61 Hanford 76/49/65/42/62 Orosi 74/47/65/41/61


Seven Day Forecast:


Mostly cloudy



Partly cloudy



Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy



Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy



Patchy AM fog/partly cloudy



Two Week Outlook:  November 24 through November 30th:  This model covers the last week of November and is calling for seasonal temperatures.  Above average rain fall  is projected north of Fresno County with below average precip for the remainder of the region.


Winds Discussion:  We still need to closely monitor the extreme south valley over the next couple of hours.  So far, the winds have been confined to roughly upwards of the 3,000 foot mark but that could change as the day progresses.  Wind gusts to near 50 MPH are possible near the base of the Tehachapi’s through this afternoon, but I must emphasize the word possible.  Elsewhere, winds will generally be out of the south to southwest at 8 to 15 MPH with local gusts to 25 MPH possible.  Winds tonight will be mainly out of the south at 8 to 15 with stronger gusts, continuing Wednesday.  From Wednesday night through Friday, winds will be generally at or less than 10 MPH during the late morning through the afternoon hours. During the night through midmorning hours, winds will be generally at or less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.


Rain Discussion: Light showers will spread from west to east over the valley tonight north of Kern County.  A few sprinkles are possible in Kern County, but no measurable rain is expected.  A rain shadow will develop along the west side, so generally at or less than .06 is expected over Kings County and much of Tulare County.  In eastern Fresno and Madera Counties, .10 to .25 is possible.  Light showers will continue Wednesday with dry weather Wednesday night and, if models are correct, for the next 7 to 10 days thereafter.


Frost Discussion:  All locations will be well above 32 degrees tonight.  above freezing conditions will prevail Thursday morning, as well.  From Friday through Sunday, if skies are generally clear, coldest low lying properties will drop to near the freezing mark for short durations.  Most of the typical flat land regions will chill down to 33 to 39 degrees with hillsides in the 40s.  For now, there’s nothing on the horizon suggesting a cold weather pattern coming up.


Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 17, 2020:


Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Merced, Madera, and Fresno Counties.  Today’s air quality is unhealthy for sensitive groups in Tulare, Kings, and Kern Counties.       


The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.


For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires


In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 40s.  Kern, Low to mid 30s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/44%, Porterville, 98%/41%


Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 50%, tomorrow 30%.  Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 20%


ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .54, Blackwell Corners .57, Arvin .63, Orange Cove .54, Porterville .54, Delano .51. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available


Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 55, Blackwell 61, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 59, Porterville 56, Delano 51

Record Temperatures: 81/29. Average Temperatures: 64/40

Heating Degree Days This Season: 217, -56


Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.1 -0.6

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .11,  -1.07,  Month to Date: .11,  -.44

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .39, +or-  -.22.   Month to date .39,  +.08

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 74, Parlier, 88, Arvin, 63, Shafter, 58, Stratford, 85, Delano, 77, Lindcove, 81, Porterville, 85

Hours at 45 or below 45.

Sunrise: 6:40 am   Sunset: 4:48 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:08



Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1500 /  57 /  36 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1500 /  60 /  38 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1500 /  58 /  43 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1500 /  52 /  37 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  71 /  59 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  52 /  46 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1500 /  56 /  38 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  62 /  39 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1500 /  61 /  39 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  68 /  39 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00       T     0    0.00     0     1.67    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00       T     0    0.00     0     1.33    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    0.48    32    0.00     0     1.48    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.06     4    0.00     0     1.54    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.11     9    0.00     0     1.18    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.09     8    0.00     0     1.15    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.39    64    0.00     0     0.61     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00       T     0    0.00     0     0.56     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.30    25    0.00     0     1.22    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.26    23    0.00     0     1.15    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.24    19    0.00     0     1.25    13.95


Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella














Tea Pot Dome














North Bakersfield




Orange Cove




Lindcove Hillside


Sanger River Bottom


Root creek


Venice hill


















Holland Creek


Tivy Valley


Kite Road South


Kite Road North


AF=Above Freezing


Next report: November 17/pm