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Forecast

November 16, 2020/pm update

November 16, 2020

Summary: The possibility of our first wind event for Kern County may occur late tonight through Tuesday morning.  a vigorous Pacific storm is located off the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  High resolution models are indicating the possibility of Santa Ana type winds moving downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains and into the extreme south valley.  The time frame for this appears to be later this afternoon through tomorrow morning when pressure differences will be their tightest.  Wind gusts exceeding 45 MPH cannot be ruled out at places like the bottom of the Grapevine.  There is some indications places such as Edison and Arvin could also see gusts exceeding 40 MPH.  these same models are forecasting winds in excess of 50 MPH in places such as Frazier Park.

 

As the trough begins to move inland later Tuesday, pressure differences will begin to equalize with rapidly decreasing wind conditions.  Light showers will begin to spread over much of the valley north of Kern County.  The compressional affect of the winds ahead of the front will dry out the atmosphere in the south valley so measurable rain is unlikely.  The best chance of showers will be after midnight Tuesday through Wednesday morning.

 

The trough will then proceed into the Great Basin Wednesday night and Thursday followed by a west/northwest flow aloft which will spread a cooler air mass into California.  The weather pattern that’s been in place for roughly the past three weeks of storm after storm bombarding the Pacific Northwest and occasionally northern California will continue this weekend and well into next week.  In fact, the new two week outlook for the last week of November indicates above average precipitation from  Fresno County north with a reduced chance of precipitation further south.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear through later this evening. Increasing clouds after midnight.  There will be a good chance of strong, gusty, south to southeast winds developing in the extreme south valley, possibly spreading as far north as Bakersfield.  There will be a chance of light showers north of Kern County later Tuesday night and Wednesday morning then mostly cloudy Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Thursday afternoon through Monday with areas of night and morning fog.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 40/74/47/66 Reedley 39/77/48/67 Dinuba 39/74/46/66
Porterville 39/79/50/67 Lindsay 38/77/49/67 Delano 43/78/50/68
Bakersfield 52/81/53/68 Taft 54/79/53/67 Arvin 44/78/50/67
Lamont 48/80/51/67 Pixley 41/78/48/68 Tulare 38/75/46/66
Woodlake 39/75/46/67 Hanford 41/76/49/66 Orosi 38/75/45/66

 

Winds: Winds north of Kern County tonight will be mainly out of the southeast at 5 to 12 MPH.  From late this evening through Tuesday morning, winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains will increase to possibly 20 to 25 MPH with gusts possibly as high as 50 MPH, diminishing by midday Tuesday.  Winds Tuesday afternoon and night will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with gusts to 25 MPH possible.  Winds Wednesday will be mainly out of the west to northwest at 8 to 15 MPH, becoming light and variable Wednesday night and Thursday.

 

Rain:  A vigorous Pacific storm is currently approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  The thrust of this system is eastward, thus the northern Sierra Nevada will pick up a good one to two inches of rain along with higher elevation snow late Tuesday night through Wednesday.  anywhere from three quarters to one inch of rain could fall from Yosemite northward.  On the valley floor, the chance of light showers will begin to increase after midnight Tuesday night with light showers continuing through Wednesday morning.  strong downslope winds ahead of the front will dry out the air in the south valley where no measurable rain is anticipated, particularly in Kern County.  Rainfall amounts in Tulare and Kings Counties should total less than .10 with perhaps as much as .15 in Fresno and Madera Counties with higher amounts near the foothills.  Dry weather will return later Wednesday night and will continue through the weekend and for at least the first few days of next week.

 

Frost:  All locations will be above freezing Tuesday through Thursday mornigns.  The air mass following a cold front which will move through the valley Wednesday is cooler.  But it’s not one that poses a serious frost threat.  It’s possible that where skies clear from Friday through Monday mornings, that coldest locations will approach the lower 30s with most locations being from 34 to 39 degrees.  For now, there’s nothing out there that looks like it would create an especially cold pattern.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

Af

Porterville

Af

Ivanhoe

Af

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

Af

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

Af

Exeter

32

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

Af

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

Af

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

Af

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

Af

Root creek

Af

Venice hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

Af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 17/morning