A weak trough of low pressure is moving through California this morning. the Sierra Nevada is creating enough lift to squeeze out some light snow showers over the southern Sierra Nevada. Currently, Doppler Radar is depicting some snow showers as far south as the Fresno/Tulare County line.
The trough will move into the Great Basin by this evening. Behind the trough is a cooler north/northwest flow which has lowered the freezing level over Oakland this morning to 8,300 feet. No doubt some upslope clouds will be generated against the north facing slopes of the Tehachapis and the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada, mainly in Tulare County.
Another weak trough will ride over the top of high pressure into the Pacific Northwest Wednesday. as this system moves into the interior west, it will form a trough oriented from northeast to southwest from central Canada to southern California.
While that development is occurring, a large ridge will develop over the eastern Pacific, building up into western Canada. This will create a north/northeast flow into California. As a strong surface high develops over the northern Great Basin, a brief, strong off shore flow will be created Thursday night and Friday. The combination of all these factors will drive drier air down the valley. Frost will be likely beginning Friday morning and each morning through at least Monday, which is discussed below in the frost summary.
As far as our weather is concerned, after tomorrow morning we can expect clear skies well into next week. Even the two week model is indicating a dry pattern will hold through the first week in December.
Forecast: Partly cloudy today through Tuesday morning. Mostly clear Tuesday afternoon through Thanksgiving Day with patchy night and morning fog and occasional high clouds. Clear skies Thursday night through Monday with chilly nights and cool afternoons.
Short Term:
| Madera 60/35/61/35/61 | Reedley 61/34/60/33/61 | Dinuba 59/33/61/33/60 |
| Porterville 62/35/61/34/61 | Lindsay 60/33/61/33/62 | Delano 62/36/61/36/62 |
| Bakersfield 59/40/62/39/61 | Taft 60/44/61/44/61 | Arvin 59/39/62/38/61 |
| Lamont 60/38/62/38/61 | Pixley 61/34/61/34/61 | Tulare 60/33/61/33/61 |
| Woodlake 60/34/60/33/60 | Hanford 61/35/60/34/60 | Orosi 60/32/61/32/60 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thanksgiving
Patchy fog/mostly clear 35/59 |
Friday
Mostly clear 31/61 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 30/62 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 29/63 |
Monday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 31/65 |
Two Week Outlook: November 30 through December 6 this model points to a continuation of the pattern we’ve seen in recent weeks. Storms will move through the Pacific Northwest, clipping northern California from time to time with central California remaining largely dry. Anticipate somewhat above average temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable to no more than 10 MPH while winds during the night through mid morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thanksgiving Day.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Only the coldest low spots will drop down to around 31 to 32 degrees tonight. temperatures as of 6:00am were about 1 to 2 degrees warmer at most locations than 24 hours ago. McFarland was the coldest I could find at 33. Temperatures Wednesday and Thanksgiving mornings will be similar with widespread mid to upper 30s with the coldest locations dropping down to around 32.
Beginning Friday morning, the potential for widespread subfreezing temperatures will begin. Let me just briefly explain the pattern. On Thanksgiving Day, a trough of low pressure will orient from central Canada southward to southern California while a big upper high over the eastern Pacific builds a ridge into western Canada. This sets up a north/northeast flow in the upper levels of the atmosphere over California. A strong surface high will pop up over the northern Great Basin, creating a brief but strong off shore flow. This will mix drier air down to the valley floor. How low dew points will ultimately dip is difficult to discern at this time, but it does look like we’ll see an upper 20s/lower 30s event with coldest river bottom and similar locations possibly down to 26 to 27 by Saturday morning.
As always, stay tuned, but I do look for subfreezing temperatures through Monday of this week.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 23, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Kings, Tulare, and Merced Counties. The air quality in the remainder of the growing region is unsafe for sensitive groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, Mid upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/49% Porterville, 99%/47%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 60% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .54, Parlier .38, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .56, Orange Cove .37, Porterville .40, Delano .46. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 59, Parlier 56, Blackwell 62, Arvin, 58, Orange Cove 60, Porterville 56, Delano 51
Record Temperatures: 78/27. Average Temperatures: 62/38
Heating Degree Days This Season: 282, -79
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 54.0 +.0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.12, Month to Date: .28, -.49
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.36. Month to date .39, -.06
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 115, Parlier, 139, Arvin, 94, Shafter, 94, Stratford, 135, Delano, 128, Lindcove, 136, Porterville, 178
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:47 am Sunset: 4:45 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:59
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DHM / 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 39 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 63 / 40 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DHM / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / 65 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DHM / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 4 0.00 0 2.03 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 6 0.00 0 1.63 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 63 0.00 0 1.72 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 9 0.00 0 1.78 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 20 0.00 0 1.40 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 10 0.00 0 1.34 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 52 0.37 49 0.75 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.06 9 0.67 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 24 T 0 1.53 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 21 0.02 1 1.35 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 16 0.02 1 1.54 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
32 |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 23/pm