Summary: Even though temperatures are not reflecting a cooler air mass invading central California, they will with time. To our north, winds at Stockton are out of the north, gusting to 29, Modesto has gusts to 24, Merced has sustained winds out of the northwest at 17, while along the west side, Lemoore was reporting winds out of the north at 16 MPH.
The main upper trough of low pressure now stretches from the Canadian Rockies to northern California. By Thanksgiving morning, this trough will stretch from central Canada to central and southern California. While that’s occurring, upper level high pressure off shore will be ridging into western Canada.
The squeeze play between these two features will generate a short lived but strong northeast flow aloft. As the trough pulls off to the east, strong surface high pressure will take shape over northern Nevada and Utah, resulting in a robust off shore flow Thanksgiving day. It’s possible west to east oriented canyons along the Sierra Nevada could see localized strong, gusty, easterly winds. By midday Friday, the high off shore will be moving inland. A cooler and more importantly drier air mass will have settled onto the valley floor by that time. This will set the stage for a string of subfreezing mornings beginning Friday. More below in the frost discussion.
The high will dominate our pattern through the weekend. Once we get to Tuesday of next weekend and beyond, models show little consistency. It does appear a trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest then into the Great Basin Monday as an inside slider.
Some models are still showing a closed to possibly even cut off low developing somewhere near northern California Tuesday or Wednesday. if this does develop, these systems are notorious bad boys, but for now I don’t see any potential for precipitation.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies tonight with the possible exception of portions of eastern Tulare County and Kern County which may be mostly to partly cloudy due to upslope clouds into Thanksgiving morning. expect clear skies thanksgiving afternoon through Monday with cold nights and cool days. Mostly clear Tuesday through Wednesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 35/56/29/59 | Reedley 35/57/29/60 | Dinuba 34/55/28/59 | |
| Porterville 37/57/28/61 | Lindsay 35/56/28/60 | Delano 38/56/29/60 | |
| Bakersfield 42/57/34/61 | Taft 45/56/34/62 | Arvin 40/56/30/62 | |
| Lamont 39/57/30/61 | Pixley 37/56/28/61 | Tulare 35/56/27/60 | |
| Woodlake 36/56/28/60 | Hanford 37/57/29/60 | Orosi 35/56/28/59 | |
Winds: Winds tonight towards the center and west side of the valley north of Kern County will be out of the north to northwest at 10 ot 20 MPH. gusts to 30 MPH will be possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor. Elsewhere, winds north of Kern County will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH with stronger gusts. In Kern County, winds will be generally variable to 12 MPH. locally gusty southeast to east winds could occur near the base of the Kern County mountains and extreme southern Sierra Nevada late tonight through midday Thanksgiving. From Thursday afternoon through Saturday, winds will be generally variable to 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and generally at or less than 6 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of calm conditions.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight but only slightly above in the coldest, wind sheltered locations. The atmosphere will be somewhat chaotic tonight due to northwesterly winds blowing down mainly the west side of the valley. We may see some upslope clouds develop later tonight into Thanksgiving morning in Tulare and Kern Counties. At any rate, enjoy tonight as a strong of subfreezing mornings will begin Friday morning.
A strong northeast flow aloft and an equally strong off shore flow at the surface will begin the process of driving down dew points later tonight and Thursday. By the time we get into Thursday night and Friday morning, the combination of a cooler air mass and dew points settling into the upper 20s to lower 30s will result in widespread upper 20s to lower 30s Friday morning.
Coldest, unprotected locations Friday morning could potentially drop to 26 to 27 degrees for a few hours with most flatland locations between 28 and 32. Saturday and Sunday mornings could potentially be a bit colder. Coldest readings both mornings in those unprotected cold spots could dip down to 25 to 26 degrees with most flat terrain ranging from 27 to 31. Hillsides will come in at around 30 to 35. Anticipate only moderation for Monday and Tuesday mornings.
After Tuesday, models are in disagreement with one another. But none is showing a reinforcing blast of cold dry air for now.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Terra Bella
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
Af |
Exeter
Af |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
Af |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
Af |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
Af |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
32 |
| Root Creek
Af |
Venice hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: Thanksgiving morning