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Forecast

November 29, 2020/pm update

November 29, 2020

Summary: A zone of weak upper level high pressure continues to stretch from the eastern Pacific, across California and then into the interior west.  The freezing level is just under the 11,000 foot mark, pretty much where it’s been the past few days, indicating the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere have not changed much, either.  A trough of low pressure is approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest and will  move quickly through Washington and Oregon on Monday then into the northern Rockies Monday night and Tuesday.  As this system moves eastward, a massive upper high will build northward along the Pacific coast and will extend well into northwest Canada.

 

In the meantime, a surface high will develop over the northern Great Basin, centering over Idaho by Tuesday evening.  This will set the stage for yet another robust off shore flow and another round of strong Santa Ana winds in southern California late Tuesday through Thursday.  A couple of models suggest the possibility of Santa Ana winds blowing down the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, possibility with some locally strong gusty winds in the extreme south valley.  If this occurs, we would see a significant rise in temperatures along with falling dew points in Kern County  Tuesday night and Wednesday.  you may recall, as we led into the freeze pattern we’re under, we had a similar situation which contributed to the dry air mass now in place.   At any rate, we may  see a marginally cooler air mass by Thursday with the possibility of an injection of more dry air onto the valley floor.

 

By Thursday into Friday, a low center will develop over the western U.S. with the western side of this low stretching possibility as far west as California.  This would have the effect of squeezing high pressure further north into the Pacific Northwest, eventually forming a new low over northern Baja by Friday.  This would also contribute to the off shore flow.  Historically, this is an extremely dry pattern and one that can be difficult to break.

 

Forecast:  Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Thursday.  Mostly clear Thursday night through Sunday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 27/63/28/62 Reedley 28/63/28/62 Dinuba 27/62/27/61
Porterville 28/64/28/62 Lindsay 27/63/28/62 Delano 28/64/29/62
Bakersfield 37/64/38/63 Taft 45/62/46/63 Arvin 31/64/32/63
Lamont 30/64/31/62 Pixley 28/64/28/62 Tulare 26/62/27/61
Woodlake 28/63/28/62 Hanford 29/63/29/62 Orosi 27/63/27/61

 

Winds: Winds through Thursday north of Kern County will be variable to no more than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and generally at or less than 6 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions.  Winds in Kern County through at least midday Tuesday will be light and  variable.  One element we will have to watch will be the possibility of another strong wind event affecting the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains late Tuesday through Thursday.  I wouldn’t completely rule out some strong, gusty, downslope winds near the base of the Tehachapi’s and extreme southern Sierra Nevada possibility beginning as early as late Tuesday afternoon with a better chance later Tuesday night and Wednesday.  it will be interesting to see if this is reflected in the next few model runs as most models did not indicate the winds will make it to the valley floor, however past experience has taught me to beware.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.

 

Frost:  Air temperatures and dew points are roughly the same as they were roughly 24 hours ago, so for now I’m anticipating readings tonight to be similar to those of the past few nights.  There is one wild card, however.  There is a batch of high clouds off shore which is caught up in the westerly flow aloft.  They will be moving through later tonight.  it probably won’t be enough to slow the radiational cooling process, however if these clouds are dense enough, readings will be 2 to 3 degrees milder than forecast.  Expect similar conditions coming up Tuesday morning.

 

Coldest, unprotected low lying regions will drop to between 24 and 26 tonight with most flatland locations ranging from 27 to 30.  Hillsides will be above freezing.

 

The inversion tonight will be similar to last night with temperatures at most locations being 4 to 7 degrees warmer at 34 feet.

 

Coldest locations will dip to 32 degrees by about 10 to 11 pm and 28 degrees after 2:00am.  They won’t rise above freezing until 8:30 to 9:00am Monday.

 

As mentioned in the wind discussion, some localized gusty Santa Ana winds could make it down to the extreme south valley Tuesday night and Wednesday.  these downslope winds would warm up the Kern County portion of the valley significantly while also further driving down dew points.  With yet another pending off shore flow at mid week, no doubt another injection of dry air will mix down to the valley floor, lowering dew points elsewhere and pretty much putting us back to square one.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

27

Porterville

27

Ivanhoe

26

Woodlake

28

Strathmore

27

McFarland

26

Ducor

28

Tea Pot Dome

27

Lindsay

26

Exeter

27

Famoso

25

Madera

27

Belridge

26

Delano

28

North Bakersfield

28

Orosi

27

Orange Cove

26

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

23

Root Creek

25

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

28

Arvin

32

Lamont

30

Plainview

28

Mettler

33

Edison

33

Maricopa

27

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

27

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

27

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: November 30/am