November 29, 2020
Summary: A zone of weak upper level high pressure continues to stretch from the eastern Pacific, across California and then into the interior west. The freezing level is just under the 11,000 foot mark, pretty much where it’s been the past few days, indicating the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere have not changed much, either. A trough of low pressure is approaching the coast of the Pacific Northwest and will move quickly through Washington and Oregon on Monday then into the northern Rockies Monday night and Tuesday. As this system moves eastward, a massive upper high will build northward along the Pacific coast and will extend well into northwest Canada.
In the meantime, a surface high will develop over the northern Great Basin, centering over Idaho by Tuesday evening. This will set the stage for yet another robust off shore flow and another round of strong Santa Ana winds in southern California late Tuesday through Thursday. A couple of models suggest the possibility of Santa Ana winds blowing down the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and Tehachapi Mountains, possibility with some locally strong gusty winds in the extreme south valley. If this occurs, we would see a significant rise in temperatures along with falling dew points in Kern County Tuesday night and Wednesday. you may recall, as we led into the freeze pattern we’re under, we had a similar situation which contributed to the dry air mass now in place. At any rate, we may see a marginally cooler air mass by Thursday with the possibility of an injection of more dry air onto the valley floor.
By Thursday into Friday, a low center will develop over the western U.S. with the western side of this low stretching possibility as far west as California. This would have the effect of squeezing high pressure further north into the Pacific Northwest, eventually forming a new low over northern Baja by Friday. This would also contribute to the off shore flow. Historically, this is an extremely dry pattern and one that can be difficult to break.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Thursday. Mostly clear Thursday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
Madera 27/63/28/62 | Reedley 28/63/28/62 | Dinuba 27/62/27/61 | |
Porterville 28/64/28/62 | Lindsay 27/63/28/62 | Delano 28/64/29/62 | |
Bakersfield 37/64/38/63 | Taft 45/62/46/63 | Arvin 31/64/32/63 | |
Lamont 30/64/31/62 | Pixley 28/64/28/62 | Tulare 26/62/27/61 | |
Woodlake 28/63/28/62 | Hanford 29/63/29/62 | Orosi 27/63/27/61 |
Winds: Winds through Thursday north of Kern County will be variable to no more than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and generally at or less than 6 MPH nights and early mornings with periods of near calm conditions. Winds in Kern County through at least midday Tuesday will be light and variable. One element we will have to watch will be the possibility of another strong wind event affecting the extreme southern Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains late Tuesday through Thursday. I wouldn’t completely rule out some strong, gusty, downslope winds near the base of the Tehachapi’s and extreme southern Sierra Nevada possibility beginning as early as late Tuesday afternoon with a better chance later Tuesday night and Wednesday. it will be interesting to see if this is reflected in the next few model runs as most models did not indicate the winds will make it to the valley floor, however past experience has taught me to beware.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost: Air temperatures and dew points are roughly the same as they were roughly 24 hours ago, so for now I’m anticipating readings tonight to be similar to those of the past few nights. There is one wild card, however. There is a batch of high clouds off shore which is caught up in the westerly flow aloft. They will be moving through later tonight. it probably won’t be enough to slow the radiational cooling process, however if these clouds are dense enough, readings will be 2 to 3 degrees milder than forecast. Expect similar conditions coming up Tuesday morning.
Coldest, unprotected low lying regions will drop to between 24 and 26 tonight with most flatland locations ranging from 27 to 30. Hillsides will be above freezing.
The inversion tonight will be similar to last night with temperatures at most locations being 4 to 7 degrees warmer at 34 feet.
Coldest locations will dip to 32 degrees by about 10 to 11 pm and 28 degrees after 2:00am. They won’t rise above freezing until 8:30 to 9:00am Monday.
As mentioned in the wind discussion, some localized gusty Santa Ana winds could make it down to the extreme south valley Tuesday night and Wednesday. these downslope winds would warm up the Kern County portion of the valley significantly while also further driving down dew points. With yet another pending off shore flow at mid week, no doubt another injection of dry air will mix down to the valley floor, lowering dew points elsewhere and pretty much putting us back to square one.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
28 |
Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
25 |
Madera
27 |
Belridge
26 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
27 |
Orange Cove
26 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
23 |
Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
28 |
Arvin
32 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
33 |
Edison
33 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 30/am