November 30, 2020
Yet another cold, frosty morning will turn into a rather pleasant afternoon considering the time of year. Weak upper level high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific and across California. To our north, a weak trough of low pressure is traversing the Pacific Northwest and will move into the northern Rockies later tonight and Tuesday. Following this system, a massive upper high will cover the eastern Pacific and the western one-third of the U.S. The northern limit of this high will eventually reach into northwest Canada.
The pattern for later next week, even though the pattern will be boring, is rather interesting from a meteorological perspective. That low currently moving through the Pacific Northwest will center over Missouri Wednesday night and Thursday with the western section of the low expanding towards the west and into the Desert Southwest. The persistent off shore flow of the past week or so will weaken today, but will increase again late Tuesday night through Thursday. We could see some locally strong Santa Ana winds in the south side of the valley. As always, it’s somewhat of a roll of the dice. If it does occur, the Kern County portion of the valley floor could warm to near 70 Wednesday and Thursday. This pattern may also inject another round of dry air onto the valley floor for a continuation of subfreezing overnight temperatures.
Most models project a low center developing off the northern Baja coastline this weekend. This, in part, will continue the off shore flow, especially over southern California.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Friday. Mostly clear skies will continue Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/28/61/28/64 | Reedley 64/26/61/27/64 | Dinuba 63/28/61/28/63 |
| Porterville 65/28/61/29/65 | Lindsay 64/28/61/28/65 | Delano 65/28/62/29/64 |
| Bakersfield 65/37/63/37/65 | Taft 64/45/64/45/66 | Arvin 66/33/64/33/66 |
| Lamont 65/31/65/32/66 | Pixley 65/28/61/28/64 | Tulare 63/27/61/28/63 |
| Woodlake 64/28/61/29/64 | Hanford 65/30/61/30/63 | Orosi 63/28/61/28/63 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 29/61 |
Friday
Mostly clear 28/63 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 29/63 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 28/62 |
Monday
Mostly clear 28/62 |
Two Week Outlook: December 6 through December 12: This model gives absolutely no hope for precipitation. It is simply a variation of the blocking ridge pattern we’ve been under through the fall season so expect little chance of rain with above average daytime temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds north of Kern County will be variable in nature during the afternoons at no more than 10 MPH. during the night and early morning hours, winds will be no more than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions. There is a chance, late Tuesday night and Wednesday, that increasing Santa Ana winds may make it downslope and into the extreme south valley floor. As always, its’ something of a roll of the dice to see if these winds actually make it to the valley floor. Nevertheless, the risk factor is high enough to mention this possibility of winds in the 15 to 35 MPH range with stronger gusts. Again, this would be late Tuesday night and Wednesday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: On average, lows this morning are running a degree or two milder than the past few mornings, but are still below freezing at most locations. The coldest I could find as of 6:30am was 25 at Reedley, and 26 at Fowler, Ivanhoe, and Exeter. Most other locations were 28 to 30 with parts of Kern County slightly above freezing.
There is a weak trough moving through the Pacific Northwest today. It will briefly turn the off shore flow onshore which could bring dew points up a tad later today. We’ll tackle that in the afternoon report.
A strong off shore flow will again redevelop late Tuesday night through Thursday, possibly injecting more cold, dry air onto the valley floor. This would essentially put us back to square one. At any rate, for tonight, the coldest unprotected low lying regions will chill down to 25 to 27 degrees with most flat terrain from 28 to 30 with hillsides above freezing.
Portions of Kern County near the base of the mountains will be slightly above freezing.
The inversion tonight will be similar with temperatures at 34 feet being 5 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations. Expect similar conditions Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. We’ll have to study the picture for Thursday and Friday mornings. Right now, I’m taking a wait and see attitude regarding off shore winds injecting more cold, dry air onto the valley floor. For now, I don’t see anything colder than what we’ve experienced of late.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 30, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups in Fresno and Kern Counties. The air quality in the remainder of the growing area is moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s, Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 84%/32% Porterville, 93%/28%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .55, Parlier .47, Blackwell Corners .54, Arvin .55, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .48, Delano .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 56, Parlier 52, Blackwell 58, Arvin, 55, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 47
Record Temperatures: 77/29. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 394, -85
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.7 +.0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.38, Month to Date: .28, -.75
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.53. Month to date .39, -.23
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 194, Parlier, 234, Arvin, 171, Shafter, 178, Stratford, 216, Delano, 219, Lindcove, 228, Porterville, 275
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:53 am Sunset: 4:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:50
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 29 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 66 / 29 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 66 / 34 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 28 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 27 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 29 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 32 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 4 0.77 31 2.45 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 5 0.50 25 1.99 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 55 0.18 9 1.95 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 8 0.28 14 1.99 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 17 0.50 30 1.66 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 0.58 39 1.48 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 42 1.03 112 0.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.91 114 0.80 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 19 0.85 44 1.92 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 17 1.01 63 1.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 13 1.47 78 1.88 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 30/pm