November 29, 2020
An extremely quiet weather pattern continues. A very dry air mass remains trapped on the valley floor underneath a typical winter warm air inversion. As of 6;30 am, the temperature at Sandburg at an elevation of 4,100 feet was 48 degrees while most rural locations on the valley floor were shivering in the upper 20s.
The next system of note will move through the Pacific Northwest Monday then will zip quickly into the northern Rockies Tuesday followed by a massive ridge of upper level high pressure which will cover the eastern Pacific Ocean and ridge as far north as the southern Yukon Territory of Canada. By Wednesday, an elongated area of low pressure stretching from the Midwest to the Desert Southwest will generate another northeasterly flow aloft, something similar to what we observed last week. Strong surface high pressure will center over the northern Great Basin for yet another off shore surface flow. This may very well inject another round of slightly cooler and drier air onto the valley floor after midweek, essentially reinforcing the frosty pattern we’ve been under recently.
This is rather a short summary, however there’s simply not a lot to talk about as even the latest two week model is indicating a blocking ridge continuing.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Thursday. Mostly clear skies will continue Thursday night through Sunday.
Short Term:
| Madera 63/27/63/28/62 | Reedley 64/27/63/27/62 | Dinuba 62/27/62/27/61 |
| Porterville 64/28/64/28/62 | Lindsay 63/26/63/27/61 | Delano 64/28/63/28/62 |
| Bakersfield 65/37/64/37/62 | Taft 65/47/65/45/61 | Arvin 65/32/62/32/62 |
| Lamont 65/30/62/30/61 | Pixley 64/27/63/27/62 | Tulare 63/26/63/27/62 |
| Woodlake 63/27/63/27/61 | Hanford 63/29/63/29/62 | Orosi 63/26/63/27/62 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Wednesday
Mostly clear 29/63 |
Thursday
Mostly clear 28/64 |
Friday
Mostly clear 29/65 |
Saturday
Mostly clear 29/64 |
Sunday
Mostly clear 30/64 |
Two Week Outlook: December 6 through December 12: This model gives absolutely no hope for precipitation. It is simply a variation of the blocking ridge pattern we’ve been under through the fall season so expect little chance of rain with above average daytime temperatures.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be variable to no more than 10 MPH. Winds during the night and early morning hours will generally be at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures were very similar again this morning. as of 6:30, the coldest I could find was 24 at Reedley, 25 at Fowler and Famoso, and 26 at Orange Cove, Ivanhoe, and Exeter. Most other locations were in the upper 20s to even a few lower 30s in Kern County.
We can pretty much make a carbon copy of yesterday’s forecast and just use it over the next few nights. Satellite imagery is showing some high, thin clouds off shore which will move inland from time to time, however these clouds will not be thick enough to affect the radiational cooling process.
Coldest temperatures in unprotected low spots will dip to 24 to 26 degrees with most flatland locations between 27 and 30 with hillsides above freezing.
The inversion tonight will be similar with temperatures at 34 feet generally ranging from4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Coldest river bottom and like location will dip to 32 degrees by 10:00pm and 28 degrees at or around 2:00am and won’t rise to above freezing until about 8:30 to 9:00 Monday morning.
Expect similar conditions in the coming nights. In fact, a configuration similar to what we recently experienced with a northeast flow aloft and a strengthening off shore flow will set up around Wednesday or Thursday, possibly reinforcing the dry air mass currently on the valley floor. For now, it just means a continuation of the frosty pattern.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for November 26, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups in Fresno and Kern Counties. The air quality in the remainder of the growing area is moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s, Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 83%/28% Porterville, 97%/25%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .56, Parlier .46, Blackwell Corners .54, Arvin .54, Orange Cove .47, Porterville .47, Delano .48. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 57, Parlier 53, Blackwell 59, Arvin, 56, Orange Cove 57, Porterville 53, Delano 48
Record Temperatures: 76/26. Average Temperatures: 59/37
Heating Degree Days This Season: 376, -85
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 52.9 +.0.6
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.34, Month to Date: .28, -.71
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.50. Month to date .39, -.20
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 182, Parlier, 219, Arvin, 159, Shafter, 164, Stratford, 203, Delano, 205, Lindcove, 213, Porterville, 262
Hours at 45 or below 45.
Sunrise: 6:52 am Sunset: 4:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:51
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 64 / 30 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 64 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 66 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 66 / 24 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 66 / 30 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 67 / 29 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 4 0.63 26 2.38 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 5 0.48 25 1.93 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 56 0.18 9 1.92 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 8 0.28 14 1.96 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 17 0.50 31 1.62 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 9 0.48 33 1.46 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 44 1.03 116 0.89 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.91 117 0.78 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 20 0.84 45 1.87 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 18 0.98 62 1.57 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 14 1.39 76 1.83 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
27 |
Porterville 27 | Ivanhoe
26 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
28 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
25 |
Madera
27 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
26 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
23 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
30 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
33 |
| Edison
33 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: November 29/pm