November 30, 2020
Summary: The only real weather feature of note is moving through eastern Washington and Oregon, but the thrust of this storm is eastward rather than southward. It has briefly turned the surface winds along the coast onshore, however, as that low moves into the northern Rockies tonight, it will be followed quickly by a building surface high centering over Idaho. This means barometric pressure will be higher over the Great Basin than off the southern California coast, resulting in the latest off shore flow.
Latest high resolution models are indicating the pending off shore flow probably will not be strong enough for Santa Ana type winds to reach the valley floor in Kern County. Even so, this is always a tricky forecast but for now, so far so good.
A massive high is already building along the Pacific coast and will ridge as far north as northwest Canada and will also cover much of the western U.S. By Wednesday night and Thursday, a low center will develop over Missouri then will stretch into the southwestern desert regions, increasing the off shore flow. It’s possible another injection of dry air down to the valley floor could occur which simply means more of the same weather we’ve been having can be expected through the weekend.
Speaking of the weekend, there are models that show the development of a closed low over southern California Saturday. It’s projected to drift to a position off northern Baja by Sunday. This feature will be dry, but will turn the winds aloft out of the east. This is just another version of an off shore flow, however.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 28/62/28/63 | Reedley 27/62/28/64 | Dinuba 29/63/29/64 | |
| Porterville 28/63/28/64 | Lindsay 27/62/28/64 | Delano 29/64/29/65 | |
| Bakersfield 37/65/37/66 | Taft 46/63/47/65 | Arvin 33/65/33/66 | |
| Lamont 33/63/34/65 | Pixley 28/63/29/65 | Tulare 27/62/28/63 | |
| Woodlake 28/62/29/64 | Hanford 29/63/30/65 | Orosi 27/63/28/64 | |
Winds: Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature. During the night and morning h ours, winds will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost: Temperatures as of the time of this writing have warmed into the lower 60s with dew points in the low to mid 30s, which is almost identical to not just yesterday, but the past several days. Tonight’s temperatures will also be very similar to what we’ve experienced yesterday. The off shore flow has temporarily halted, but will begin again Tuesday and increase Wednesday and Thursday. The main question is whether or not it will be strong enough to mix more dry air down to the valley floor. Even if this doesn’t occur, I just don’t see any mechanism to nudge dew points up and allow overnight low temperatures to moderate.
Coldest low lying frost pockets will bottom out near 25 to 26 tonight with most flatland locations between 27 and 31. Portions of Kern County will be in the low to mid 30s. Hillsides will be above freezing.
The inversion tonight will be pretty much status quo with temperatures at 34 feet anywhere from 4 to 8 degrees warmer at most locations.
With the stale, dry air mass parked on the valley floor, and building upper level high pressure above central California, expect little change through the remainder of the work week and possibly through the weekend.
Some models are showing a closed low forming over southern California this weekend, which will have limited moisture. Currently, it’s too early to tell what affect it will have on dew points, but for now my guess is below freezing temperatures will continue over the weekend.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
28 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
29 |
McFarland
28 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
29 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
27 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
29 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
32 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
AF |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 1/am