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Forecast

December 3, 2020/pm update

 

December 3, 2020

Summary: A couple of times in a typical winter, the weather just plain gets crazy over the valley portion of Kern County and today is definitely one of those days.  The 1:00pm observation at Meadows Field in Bakersfield showed a temperature of 74 degrees with a dew point of -1 and a relative humidity of 5% with winds out of the southeast sustained at 21 MPH.  Winds were beginning to marginally decrease, however at the bottom of the Grapevine, winds at the CHP office were still gusting to 46 as of the time of this writing.  The current barometric pressure at Salt Lake City was 30.54 while at LAX the pressure was 30.18, illustrating the off shore flow.  That’s not quite as dramatic as earlier, but still significant.

 

Upper level high pressure has been squeezed northward into the Pacific Northwest and the Canadian Rockies.  An elongated low pressure system extends from Missouri on the east to southeast Arizona on the west.  This keeps that easterly flow going above the southern half of California.  It will weaken as the low drifts southward into Mexico.

 

Upper level high pressure will continue to dominate Friday into Saturday night with mild days and chilly nights.  In fact, nights will be a bit colder now that dew points have again dropped, something we’ll discuss more in the frost section below.

 

A low pressure system will drop out of the Pacific Northwest Sunday, tracking south/southeast into Nevada Sunday afternoon then south/southwest through central and southern California Monday and will finally set up shop off the northern Baja coast Tuesday through Wednesday.  no active weather will be associated with this system, however it does pose some  more interesting possibilities for mainly Monday into Tuesday.  The circulation around that low over the top side will bring the winds aloft out of the east.  Again.  This will coincide with the development of another strong high over the interior west.  This is a recipe for strong Santa Ana winds over the mountains of Kern County and even down some of the canyons along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada.  I would not rule out another wind event over the valley portion of Kern County Monday into Tuesday.

 

Finally, later next week the low near Baja will be kicked eastward by a weak trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest followed by yet another ridge of high pressure which will allow for the very dry conditions of the past few months to continue.

 

Forecast:  Other than some high clouds at times, it will be mostly clear through Sunday morning.  mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday.  Mostly clear Monday night through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 28/64/27/64 Reedley 28/65/27/64 Dinuba 26/63/26/64
Porterville 27/65/26/64 Lindsay 27/63/36/63 Delano 28/64/27/63
Bakersfield 36/65/34/66 Taft 40/64/39/66 Arvin 34/64/29/66
Lamont 32/65/29/65 Pixley 27/64/26/64 Tulare 27/63/26/63
Woodlake 28/65/27/63 Hanford 29/65/28/64 Orosi 27/64/26/63

 

Winds: We’ll start off over the valley portion of Kern County.  Winds in some areas have begun to decrease slowly.  Winds peaked out at 52 MPH at the bottom of the Grapevine, 48 MPH at Lamont, 37 at Edison, 41 at Meadows Field with numerous other locations reporting winds between 30 and 40 MPH.  these winds will slowly decrease as the afternoon wears on, ending altogether by this evening.  Therefore, from later tonight and out over the entire valley through Sunday, winds will be at or less than 10 MPH afternoons and evenings and less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with periods of near calm conditions.  It’s possible we may see east/southeast winds in Kern County in the 5 to 12 MPH range during the nighttime hours.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather tonight and for at least the next 7 to possibly 10 days.

 

Frost:  Tonight’s forecast will be a tough one as I anticipate some possibly significant differences from one location to another.  Dew points are incredibly low over the valley  portion of Kern County, generally ranging from -5 into single digits.  From Tulare County north, dew points are much higher, but still much lower than previous nights, ranging in the mid 20s to the lower 30s.  the wild card in all this is the atmosphere above the valley floor which may mix down to the surface from time to time, possibly counteracting the lower dew points.  However, the coldest unprotected frost  pockets could drop down to 24 to 25 degrees Friday, Saturday, and Sunday mornings with most flatland locations between 26 and 29.  Even though some of these readings will be possibly somewhat milder due to the mixing effect, I still want to lean low.  Even though dew points are incredibly low in Kern County, mixing coupled by drainage winds off the mountains may mitigate the incredibly dry air.  Beware, though, that where winds die off and become calm, temperatures may rocket downward.

 

Coldest overnight lows tonight in typical low lying areas will drop down to 24 to 25 degrees with most flatland locations ranging from 26 to 29 with hillsides in the low to mid 30s.  Expect similar conditions Saturday and Sunday, though it’s possible temperatures could be a degree or two colder.

 

The inversion tonight will be a bit weaker with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 3 to 5 degrees warmer at most locations.

 

We could see slight moderation Monday and Tuesday mornings.  It’s possible we could see another wind event over the valley portion of Kern County Monday into Tuesday which is explained above in the summary.  At the very least, I still look for temperatures to be at least in the upper 20s at most locations though we could see some cloud cover from a weak upper low moving through Monday.

 

Later next week, I have no reason to believe conditions will  improve much.  Wish I had better news.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

27

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

25

Woodlake

27

Strathmore

27

McFarland

26

Ducor

28

Tea Pot Dome

27

Lindsay

26

Exeter

26

Famoso

26

Madera

28

Belridge

26

Delano

28

North Bakersfield

28

Orosi

27

Orange Cove

27

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

33

Sanger River Bottom

24

Root Creek

26

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

28

Jasmine

28

Arvin

33

Lamont

31

Plainview

28

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

26

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

26

AF=Above Freezing

Next report: December 4/am