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Forecast

December 3, 2020/report

December 3, 2020

As of 6:00am, the temperature at Meadows Field in Bakersfield was 60 degrees with a dew point of 7 and a relative humidity of 12%.  Winds were out of the southeast at 25, gusting to 35 MPH.  the following are peak wind gusts as of 6:00am:  Grapevine base 46, Mettler 42, Grapevine Rd. east 51 MPH, Rancho Rd PGE 32, Lamont 48, Bakersfield 41, West Cottonwood Rd 40.  Peak pressure differences will peak over the next 24 hours as these winds continue to scream through the Kern County portion of the valley floor.  All the frost stations in Kern County were in the mid to upper 50s this morning while lows north of Kern County were in the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

 

In the big picture, we have an Omega formation on the weather map with high pressure being squeezed into the Pacific Northwest and western Canada while a low center stretches from Oklahoma westward to Arizona.  This is creating an easterly flow aloft which has aligned winds ata the surface and aloft favoring the Santa Ana winds to reach the valley floor.

 

Winds in Kern County will decrease later this afternoon with light winds returning tonight through Saturday night.

 

Over the weekend, a low will drop southward out of the Pacific Northwest then will take a track through northwest Nevada before moving southward through central and southern California
Sunday night and Monday.  It will be off the northern Baja coastline Monday night and Tuesday.  From Sunday night through early Tuesday, the circulation pattern around this dry low and high pressure over the Great Basin will again generate a strong off shore flow.  I wouldn’t rule out another wind event in Kern County early next week.

 

Medium range models still show a blocking pattern, so no precipitation is in our weather future for now.

 

Forecast:  Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday morning.  Partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday.  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 66/29/64/27/64 Reedley 67/29/64/27/63 Dinuba 65/28/63/27/63
Porterville 68/29/64/28/65 Lindsay 67/28/64/27/64 Delano 68/32/64/28/65
Bakersfield 71/38/64/35/66 Taft 70/45/64/44/65 Arvin 71/33/64/29/65
Lamont 71/33/64/30/66 Pixley 68/28/64/27/64 Tulare 65/28/64/26/64
Woodlake 66/28/63/27/63 Hanford 67/30/64/29/64 Orosi 66/28/64/27/63

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Sunday

Partly cloudy

30/61

Monday

Partly cloudy

33/61

Tuesday

Mostly clear

30/66

Wednesday

Mostly clear

31/67

Thursday

Partly cloudy

31/59

 

Two Week Outlook:  December 10 through December 16:  I was almost shocked by the looks of this model this morning.  it actually shows temperatures near to below average. Unfortunately, it does not indicate a pattern that would bring rain back to the valley.

 

December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December.  Southern California should experience below average precipitation.  There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall.  We’re hoping for the above average side of things. 

 

December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific.  Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley. 

 

Winds Discussion:  If you want to take a look at some peak wind gusts as of 6:00am, read the beginning of the summary above.  Suffice it to say, winds are gusting in excess of 40 to 50 MPH over much of the valley portion of Kern County at this hour.  The strong difference in pressure between the interior and off shore will begin to weaken later this afternoon.  As it slackens, winds will back off, becoming light tonight.  until then, over the valley portion of Kern County, expect winds out of the east to southeast at 20 to 35 MPH with gusts over 50 MPH  possible.  Strongest gusts will be near the base of the Kern County mountains.  The remainder of the valley can expect winds at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions through at least Sunday.

 

The configuration at the surface and aloft Sunday night and Monday shows the possibility of yet another off shore flow with the winds aligned east to west.  This could give another round of gusty winds to the Kern County portion of the valley.  Obviously, we’ll watch this pattern for changes.

 

Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.

 

Frost Discussion:  Lows this morning in Kern County are in the mid to  upper 50s due to strong winds.  The dew point at Meadows Field at last report was 7 with a relative humidity of 12%.  Lows from Tulare County northward averaged in the low 30s with Ivanhoe at 28 and Exeter at 29 beign the lowest.  Obviously, very dry air is being injected into the south valley and I do anticipate dew points to lower further north as well.  Tonight’s forecast is a tricky one as we may still see some mixing going on and dew points which will not yet have been determined.

 

For now, coldest river bottom and similar locations will drop down to 26 to 27 degrees with most flatland locations between 28 and 32.  Even though temperatures are in the mid 50s this hour in Kern County, winds there will be over tonight so that same rule of thumb would apply in Kern County as well, although that will be a difficult forecast.

 

Expect temperatures Saturday to be a tad colder, and possibly Sunday.

 

An upper low will drop  southward into central California late Sunday and Monday.  No rain is expected, but hopefully enough cloud cover will move overhead to slow the radiational cooling process.  After Monday, skies will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy.  For now, it would appear upper 20s and lower 30s would be the norm.

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 3, 2020:

 

Today’s air quality is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups in Fresno, Kern, and Kings Counties.  The air quality in the remainder of the growing area is moderate.    

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Low to mid 30s,  Kern, Mid teens to the lower 20s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 81%/32% Porterville, 95%/29%

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 100%, tomorrow 90%.  Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 90%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .46, Blackwell Corners .55, Arvin .57, Orange Cove .48, Porterville .50, Delano .50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 50, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 51, Delano NA

Record Temperatures: 75/30. Average Temperatures: 58/36

Heating Degree Days This Season: 443, -91

 

Courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.8 +2.2

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  .28,  -1.50,  Month to Date: .00,  -.08

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .39, +or-  -.60.   Month to date .00,  -.05

Water year season is from October 1st through September.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 229, Parlier, 276,  Arvin, 204, Shafter, 222, Stratford, 254, Delano, 261, Lindcove, 270, Porterville, 318

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 6:55 am   Sunset: 4:43 pm   Hours of Daylight:  9:48

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  65 /  31 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  66 /  31 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  66 /  37 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  68 /  31 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  66 /  30 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  67 /  38 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  66 /  33 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1600 /  68 /  35 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  68 /  32 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DH1600 /  63 /  45 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  63 /  36 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                         M       M     M       M     M        M    14.06

MODESTO                          M       M     M       M     M        M    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    1.08    53    3.60   176     2.04    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.16     8    1.48    71     2.08    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    0.28    16    1.50    84     1.78    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.13     8    0.94    61     1.54    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.39    39    1.07   108     0.99     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00       T     0    0.92   108     0.85     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.37    18    2.70   129     2.09    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.28    16    2.22   128     1.74    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    0.25    12    1.98    98     2.03    13.95

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

28

Porterville

29

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

28

Strathmore

28

McFarland

28

Ducor

29

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

28

Exeter

27

Famoso

29

Madera

28

Belridge

28

Delano

28

North Bakersfield

29

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

28

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

29

Rosedale

29

Jasmine

29

Arvin

33

Lamont

31

Plainview

28

Mettler

32

Edison

33

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

30

Tivy Valley

27

Kite Road South

30

Kite Road North

27

AF=Above Freezing

 

Next report: December 3/pm