December 4, 2020
Temperatures throughout the citrus belt this morning are generally 2 to 3 degrees colder than the previous night. Though strong winds lowered dew points throughout the region, they are recovering at Kern County. As of the time of this writing, the dew point in Bakersfield had risen to 16 as opposed to -5 yesterday afternoon. Weak high pressure now covers off shore waters of California and the western one-third of the U.S. while that low over the Desert Southwest, which played a role in those strong winds yesterday, has now moved into northern Mexico. The high will continue to control the situation through Saturday night. with the very dry air mass now in place, there will be wide swings in temperatures between daytime highs and overnight lows with readings well into the 60s afternoons and below freezing at night.
A low will be developing over the Pacific Northwest Saturday night which will drop into Nevada Sunday. The low will then track south/southwest, brushing central California and moving into southern California Monday. It will be off the Baja coastline Tuesday. The circulation pattern around this system will in part generate another strong off shore flow Monday into Tuesday. Right now it’s difficult to determine whether or not these winds will make it down to the valley floor, but I can’t eliminate that possibility. No active weather will be associated with this system, but hopefully there will be enough cloud cover to nudge temperatures up a bit Monday and Tuesday mornings.
By Thursday of next week, a weak trough of low pressure will be moving into the Pacific Northwest and northern California, pushing the Baja low further to the east. The flow will briefly become on shore, theoretically nudging dew points up.
Forecast: Other than occasional high clouds, it will be mostly clear through Sunday morning. partly cloudy Sunday afternoon through Monday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/27/65/27/62 | Reedley 65/27/66/28/61 | Dinuba 64/25/65/26/61 |
| Porterville 65/27/66/27/62 | Lindsay 64/26/66/26/62 | Delano 65/27/66/27/61 |
| Bakersfield 66/36/67/37/61 | Taft 64/43/67/43/61 | Arvin 65/29/66/29/62 |
| Lamont 65/29/66/29/62 | Pixley 65/27/66/27/62 | Tulare 63/25/65/26/61 |
| Woodlake 65/26/66/27/62 | Hanford 64/28/66/29/61 | Orosi 63/26/66/26/61 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Partly cloudy 31/60 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 30/62 |
Wednesday
Mostly clear 29/66 |
Thursday
Partly cloudy 32/66 |
Friday
Partly cloudy 30/58 |
Two Week Outlook: December 11 through December 17: I was almost shocked by the looks of this model this morning. it actually shows temperatures near to below average. Unfortunately, it does not indicate a pattern that would bring rain back to the valley.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Sunday night will be at or less than 10 MPH during the late mornings and afternoons and less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions. Winds beginning Monday will be off shore and fairly strong. There is a chance of gusty east to southeast winds making it down to the valley floor in Kern County. For now, the configuration doesn’t look as favorable as the pattern for yesterday’s event, but it will be close.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures as of 6:30 were generally running 2 to 3 degrees colder than 24 hours ago. The coldest so far was 25 degrees at Ivanhoe with most locations between 27 and 30. Lower 30s were the norm in Kern County. Dew points will rapidly recover today in Kern County. Even so, the air mass now in place on the valley floor is drier, as we knew it would be. This will allow strong radiational cooling with coldest river bottom and other frost pockets dropping down to 24 to 25 degrees with most flatland locations between 26 and 29.
The inversion tonight will be a bit better with temperatures at 34 feet generally running from 4 to 7 degrees warmer at most locations.
Expect similar conditions Sunday morning.
Monday and Tuesday mornings are a bit unclear at this time. A weak, dry, upper level low will be tracking south/southwest through western Nevada with the western side of the low over central California. Hopefully there will be enough cloud cover associated with this feature to nudge temperatures up a bit. Also, it will have the tendency of mixing out the atmosphere, which will also help. On the flip side, once this system moves to a position off of northern Baja, another strong off shore flow will develop, possibly injecting another round of dry air onto the valley floor, possibly leading to another string of chilly nights later next week.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 4, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as unsafe for sensitive groups in Fresno and Kings Counties. The air quality in the remainder of the growing area is moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 20s to the lower 30s. Kern, Mid to upper 20s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 79%/20% Porterville, 92%/18%
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 100% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .51, Parlier .48, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .70, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .50, Delano .50. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 50, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 53, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 51, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 72/28. Average Temperatures: 58/36
Heating Degree Days This Season: 457, -96
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.5 +3.2
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.54, Month to Date: .00, -.12
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.62. Month to date .00, -.07
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 230, Parlier, 288, Arvin, 208, Shafter, 234, Stratford, 266, Delano, 273, Lindcove, 270, Porterville, 332
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:57 am Sunset: 4:42 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:47
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 68 / 34 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 71 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 69 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 69 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 70 / 31 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 74 / 50 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 70 / 38 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 39 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 37 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 3 2.64 98 2.69 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 5 1.90 86 2.20 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 52 3.60 174 2.07 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 8 1.48 70 2.12 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 15 1.50 82 1.82 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 0.94 60 1.56 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 39 1.07 106 1.01 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 0.92 106 0.87 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 17 2.72 127 2.14 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 16 2.35 132 1.78 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 12 2.14 103 2.08 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
26 |
Porterville
27 |
Ivanhoe
25 |
Woodlake
26 |
| Strathmore
27 |
McFarland
26 |
Ducor
27 |
Tea Pot Dome
27 |
| Lindsay
26 |
Exeter
26 |
Famoso
25 |
Madera
27 |
| Belridge
25 |
Delano
27 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
26 |
| Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
26 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
24 |
| Root Creek
25 |
Venice Hill
28 |
Rosedale
28 |
Jasmine
28 |
| Arvin
29 |
Lamont
29 |
Plainview
27 |
Mettler
30 |
| Edison
30 |
Maricopa
27 |
Holland Creek
30 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
30 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 4/pm