The center of circulation of a closed low appears to be right over the south valley at this hour. Doppler radar is depicting some light showers over the Kern County mountains and the Tulare County portion of the southern Sierra Nevada. The low will continue to move to the southwest to a position off the northern Baja coastline on Tuesday morning.
In the meantime, strong high pressure at the surface is centered over southern Idaho. The combination of wind energy from the upper low and a strong off shore surface gradient will continue to generate gusty winds over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada today.
The current barometric pressure at Pocatello, Idaho is 30.54 inches of mercury while at LAX, the barometric pressure is 29.99. This is well over a half inch of difference. The counterclockwise circulation around the low and the difference in pressure may be enough to allow those winds to work downslope off the Kern County mountains and into the extreme south valley later today anjd tonight.
In the meantime, winds are out of the east at Sandburg at 35, gusting to 46 MPH. Up at Crane Flat in Yosemite, winds are 18 MPH, gusting to 46. Pressure differences will begin to subside later Tuesday then late Wednesday through Thursday, a weak trough of low pressure moving through the Pacific Northwest will kick the Baja system eastward. This system will be followed by a ridge of high pressure just off shore, creating a northwesterly flow over California. A series of disturbances will move into the Pacific Northwest Saturday and Sunday, possibly spreading showers over the northern ¼ of California.
Medium range models continue to look more favorable for rain over the northern half of California from the 14th through the 16th.
Forecast: Variable cloudiness in the south valley today. Mostly clear elsewhere. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 62/29/64/28/66 | Reedley 61/27/64/27/66 | Dinuba 61/28/63/27/65 |
| Porterville 61/28/64/28/66 | Lindsay 62/28/64/28/65 | Delano 61/29/64/28/66 |
| Bakersfield 59/39/66/40/68 | Taft 60/43/66/46/68 | Arvin 59/33/64/32/66 |
| Lamont 60/33/64/33/68 | Pixley 61/28/64/28/66 | Tulare 60/27/64/27/64 |
| Woodlake 61/28/64/28/65 | Hanford 62/30/64/29/66 | Orosi 61/28/64/27/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly clear 29/59 |
Friday
Mostly clear 29/60 |
Saturday
Partly cloudy 30/62 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 30/63 |
Monday
Mostly clear 3162 |
Two Week Outlook: December 14 through December 20: This model gives a fairly high risk of rain for northern California but a low possibility of rain for southern California. As is many times the case, central California is on the dividing line. Daytime temperatures will continue to run somewhat above seasonal norms.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: There is a chance of gusty Santa Ana winds moving downslope into the south valley later today and tonight. if this occurs, gusts over 45 MPH are possible near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains and 30 MPH as far north as Bakersfield. these winds, if they occur, will decrease later tonight with light winds returning Tuesday. North of Kern County, expect variable winds to no more than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and 5 MPH during the night and morning hours with periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next 7 to possibly 10 days.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures were all over the place last night, generally ranging from 28 to 32 with some areas in Kern County above freezing. Reedley and Famoso dropped to 26 while Orange Cove and Sanger registered 27 as of 6:30 this morning. cloud cover is arcing over the south valley at this hour from a moisture starved upper low tracking through central California. These clouds will clear out tonight. We also have another strong off shore flow underway which no doubt will mix down some drier air to the valley floor.
Coldest unprotected low lying locations will drop down to 24 to 29 degrees with most flatland locations ranging from 26 to 31. Hillsides will be above freezing.
The inversion tonight will be weak to moderate with temperatures at 34 feet ranging from 3 to 6 degrees warmer at most locations.
Expect similar conditions Wednesday and Thursday mornings. A northwest flow aloft will begin Thursday, which is an onshore flow for a change. We could see some cloud cover from time to time from Thursday through the weekend from disturbances tracking through the Pacific Northwest and clipping northern California, however the bottom line is that we are into the shortest days of the year, and due to the lack of rain, dewpoints will continue to be low enough for subfreezing overnight temperatures to last through the end of the week.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 7, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Merced County. Air quality for December 7 for the remainder of the growing area is posted as Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 30s. Kern, Upper 20s to the lower 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/36% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 80%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .52, Parlier .48, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .69, Orange Cove .52, Porterville .NA, Delano .49. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 55, Parlier 50, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 51, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 69/25. Average Temperatures: 57/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 503, -107
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.65 +3.3
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, -1.68, Month to Date: .00, -.26
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.71. Month to date .00, -.16
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 260, Parlier, 326, Arvin, 243, Shafter, 268, Stratford, 300, Delano, 313, Lindcove, NA, Porterville, 356
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 6:59 am Sunset: 4:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:44
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 33 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 33 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 63 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 65 / 39 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 63 / 35 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 3 3.27 116 2.82 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 4 2.47 107 2.31 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 51 4.28 201 2.13 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 7 1.61 74 2.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 15 1.82 95 1.91 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 8 1.36 84 1.61 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 36 1.27 119 1.07 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 1.04 114 0.91 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 16 3.22 143 2.25 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 15 3.62 193 1.88 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 11 2.32 106 2.19 13.95
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
27 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
27 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
30 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next report: December 7/pm