December 11, 2020
This morning was one of the coldest morning’s so far, north of Kern County, which is discussed in the frost section. However, the good news is that this 18 day stream of subfreezing weather is now over. Finally, we have an onshore flow as the winds aloft have become northwesterly. The eastern Pacific high has backed further off shore which will allow the first of two storm systems this weekend to bring light precipitation to central California. The latest model runs now give a chance of light showers as far south as Kings and Tulare counties later this evening through Saturday morning.
The main dynamics of this first system will dive into the Great Basin with the western flank moving through northern and central California. Lift along the Sierra Nevada will wring out some decent rainfall amounts in the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite north and lighter precipitation south to the Sequoia National Forecast. The second system is weaker but it will move thorough northern and central California Sunday and Sunday night for our next chance of light showers, this time from Fresno County north. This system will be moving quickly with dry weather returning Monday.
For much of next week, the flow aloft will continue out of the northwest with no off shore flow in sight. The next trough of low pressure will move through the northern half of the state Thursday into Friday. We’ll continue to forecast a chance of showers with this system, although the latest model runs are not as aggressive.
Medium range models for next weekend and beyond really don’t show anything too exciting. For the fall and early winter season, storms have largely moved into the Pacific Northwest and that shows up again on this model.
Forecast: Increasing cloudiness today. Cloudy tonight and Saturday. Light showers will become likely later this evening through Saturday morning from Fresno County north with a chance of scattered light showers in the south valley. Partly to mostly cloudy Saturday afternoon and night. mostly cloudy Sunday through Monday morning with a chance of light showers Sunday and Sunday night, mainly from Fresno County north. Partly cloudy Monday afternoon through Wednesday. increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with a chance of showers Thursday through Friday.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/40/55/41/59 | Reedley 57/41/55/41/60 | Dinuba 56/39/55/40/59 |
| Porterville 58/39/55/41/58 | Lindsay 57/39/54/40/58 | Delano 58/41/55/42/60 |
| Bakersfield 57/43/55/53/61 | Taft 58/45/55/42/61 | Arvin 58/41/54/42/61 |
| Lamont 57/42/55/42/60 | Pixley 57/40/55/41/59 | Tulare 56/39/55/40/58 |
| Woodlake 57/49/55/42/57 | Hanford 57/41/55/42/59 | Orosi 57/39/55/41/58 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
Mostly cloudy 41/59 |
Tuesday
Partly cloudy 39/58 |
Wednesday
Increase clouds 42/62 |
Thursday
Ch. Of showers 44/63 |
Friday
Ch of showers 39/55 |
Two Week Outlook: December 18 through December 24: This model has reverted back to the blocking ridge pattern which drives storms well to our north. With a dome of high pressure above, expect daytime highs to remain above average.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Monday during the later morning through afternoon hours will be generally no more than 10 MPH with locally stronger gusts near showers. Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 7 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: We are actually going to see a little water fall out of the sky tonight and Saturday morning, mainly north of Kern County then again Sunday and Sunday night, this time from Fresno County north. The main dynamics of the first storm will be to our north and east. Even so, with a little bit of luck, Fresno and Madera Counties could pick up a tenth or two with less than a tenth in Kings and Tulare Counties and probably just trace amounts in Kern County. Sunday’s system is actually closer in proximity, however it’s weaker and generally less than a tenth from Fresno County north with just trace amounts likely south of that line. Dry weather will return Monday and continue through Wednesday night.
Models are still showing a trough of low pressure moving through Thursday into Friday for our next chance of rain. Even though this trend still shows up on models, the latest runs are weaker. Even so, a chance of precipitation needs to be in the forecast for Thursday into Friday. For now, next weekend and well into the following week look dry as models revert back to a blocking ridge pattern along the west coast.
Frost Discussion: Last night was the last in this seemingly endless string of subfreezing nights. And it did go out in a blaze of glory as it was one of the coldest during this entire string. Famoso rocketed down to 23 with 26 degree readings at Ivanhoe and Reedley and 27 at Orange Cove, McFarland, Exeter, and Lindsay. Most other locations were in the upper 20s with low to mid 30s generally in Kern County.
Heavy cloudy cover along with a chance of showers will ensure above freezing temperatures at all locations tonight. it appears above freezing conditions will continue for the next week. For now, there’s nothing on modeling information suggesting a pattern which would bring subfreezing weather back.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 10, 2020:
Today’s air quality is listed as moderate for Tulare County and Merced County north. The air quality for the remainder of the valley is Unsafe for Sensitive Groups.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
For more information on wildfires affecting the Valley’s air, visit: http://www.valleyair.org/wildfires
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 30s to the lower 40s. Kern, Low to mid 30s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 97%/34% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 0%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .47, Parlier .44, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .48, Orange Cove .45, Porterville .NA, Delano .41. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 50, Blackwell 56, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 55, Porterville 51, Delano NA
Record Temperatures: 69/25. Average Temperatures: 56/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 557, -115
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.5 +2.8
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, .28, or -1.88, Month to Date: .00, or -.46
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .39, +or- -.83. Month to date .00, or -.28
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 308, Parlier, 379, Arvin, 289, Shafter, 318, Stratford, 352, Delano, 371, Lindcove, NA, Porterville, 414
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:02 am Sunset: 4:43 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 32 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 65 / 31 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 39 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 64 / 31 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 67 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 64 / 37 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 63 / 34 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1535 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 65 / M / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 0.09 3 4.00 127 3.14 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 0.10 4 2.78 107 2.60 13.11
MERCED 0.00 1.08 47 0.00 0 2.31 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.16 7 0.00 0 2.41 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 0.28 13 0.00 0 2.16 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.13 7 0.00 0 1.75 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.39 32 0.00 0 1.22 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 T 0 1.06 105 1.01 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.37 15 4.09 161 2.54 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.28 13 4.70 219 2.15 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.25 10 2.68 107 2.50 13.95
Next report: December 11/pm