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Forecast

December 18, 2020/pm update

December 18, 2020

Summary: We are now under the eastern rim of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific which is creating a north/northwest flow aloft.  As of 1:00pm, the fog and low clouds had not burned off in some areas of the valley.  For example, Visalia was reporting a low cloud deck at 600 feet and Fresno at 800 feet.  Where skies are clear,  most locations are in the mid 50s at this hour, however, Fresno was reporting 49, Madera 48, and Visalia 47.  Judging from satellite imagery, those areas will see clearing in the next two hours or so.

 

The off shore upper high will shift eastward just about right overhead this weekend and into Tuesday, creating a warm air inversion over the valley floor, meaning conditions will be ripe for extensive fog and low clouds nights and mornings.  The guessing game begins in an effort to determine when it will burn off, if it burns off at all.  Historically, the center of the valley north of Kern County burns off last with areas closer to the foothills having a better shot at some sunshine.

 

A vigorous low will dive through the Pacific Northwest Tuesday then into the northern and central Rockies Tuesday night.  A massive high will build just off the Pacific coast with a ridge almost as far north as the Arctic Circle in Alaska Wednesday.  an arctic air mass will dive southward over the Rockies and Midwest Wednesday night through Christmas  Day.  Fortunately, the recent trend of this bitterly cold air mass to the east of us continues to hold.

 

A very strong surface high will build over the Great Basin Wednesday and Thursday which will generate an off shore flow over California.  Our friend the Sierra Nevada will do an excellent job of blocking that air mass from getting in here.  So, the main challenge will continue to be the fog and low clouds and when and where they clear through Christmas Day.

 

There seems to be a trend no on models for the high beginning to break down after Christmas, setting up a zonal flow across the Pacific and into the Pacific Northwest and northern half of California.  So, it’s possible rain may reenter the forecast at some time between the 26 and New Year’s Eve and Day.

 

 

Forecast: Mostly clear this evening.  Areas of fog and low clouds developing tonight, possibly becoming widespread by sunrise.  There will be extensive fog and /or low clouds nights and mornings with clearing in some areas during the afternoons from Saturday through Christmas Day.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 29/52/30/52 Reedley 28/54/30/53 Dinuba 28/52/29/51
Porterville 28/56/28/57 Lindsay 27/56/28/54 Delano 29/55/29/54
Bakersfield 36/58/36/59 Taft 43/58/45/59 Arvin 34/58/34/58
Lamont 33/57/33/58 Pixley 29/54/29/53 Tulare 29/51/30/50
Woodlake 28/54/28/53 Hanford 30/53/30/54 Orosi 28/54/28/52

 

Winds: Winds through Monday will be generally less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry weather through at least Christmas Day.  There are models showing the storm track sinking southward into roughly the northern half of California beginning a week from tomorrow with possibly more systems closer to New Year’s.  Southern California would remain dry.

 

Frost:  Temperatures as of 1:00pm were still only in the upper 40s at Madera, Visalia, and Fresno.  Those areas still had a low overcast which will probably burn off in the next few hours.  Dew points this afternoon are generally in the low to mid 40s.  Beginning tonight and each night for the next week or so, the bottom line is locations that remain fog free will dip into the upper 20s and lower 30s with unprotected river bottom locations down to 26 to 27 or so.  With a warm air  inversion firming up the next few days, fog and low clouds will no doubt become extensive the next few days.  Just how widespread remains to be seen, but if we are blessed with a full fledged fog regime, in other words that cold gray overcast we love this time of year, readings will remain above freezing wth daytime highs only in the mid 40s to the lower 50s.

 

Mid 50s to near 60 is possible in areas that clear.

 

We’ll simply have to take this one night at a time and try to outsmart the fog  machine.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

28

Porterville

28

Ivanhoe

27

Woodlake

29

Strathmore

28

Mcfarland

28

Ducor

29

Tea Pot Dome

28

Lindsay

27

Exeter

27

Famoso

28

Madera

29

Belridge

27

Delano

29

North Bakersfield

29

Orosi

28

Orange Cove

28

Lindcove

27

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

26

Root Creek

27

Venice Hill

28

Rosedale

29

Jasmin

30

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

29

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

28

Holland Creek

31

Tivy Valley

28

Kite Road South

31

Kite Road North

28

AF=Above Freezing

 

 

Next update:  December 19/am