Infrared satellite imagery which depicts fog and low clouds indicates plenty of both blanketing Tulare and Kern Counties with even a ribbon of low clouds as far north as eastern Fresno County. In the wake of yesterday’s uneventful storm, we are now under a north/northwest flow aloft which is sandwiched between building high pressure off shore and the exiting trough of low pressure which now extends from Montana to Arizona. Already the air aloft has begun to warm. The freezing level above both Vandenburg and Oakland is now just over 10,000 feet.
The high off shore will slowly build into California this weekend as the storm track is nudged northward into the Pacific Northwest. As the lowest level of the atmosphere becomes stabilized under a warm air inversion, fog and low clouds will be the main challenge through the middle of next week.
There are two possible solutions over the next five days or so. Solution one gives us areas of night and morning fog and low clouds with hazy afternoon sunshine and high temperatures eventually reaching into the upper 50s to the lower 60s. Solution number two would see the beginning of a full fledged fog regime. That’s when widespread fog dominates the valley and only lifts into a very low, gray overcast with just partial afternoon clearing. Highs then would only be in the upper 40s to the lower 50s.
Beginning Tuesday night, a low will drive into the Pacific Northwest then into the Rocky Mountain region as a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure builds northward all the way into Alaska and northwest Canada by Wednesday evening. This would drive an arctic air mass into the Rocky Mountain region on a north/northwest flow aloft. Fortunately, the last couple of model runs have been pretty consistent in keeping this air mass to our east so it appears the main challenge as we head into the Christmas holiday will be fog and low clouds which sounds like a typical Christmas in the valley.
Some models are now sowing the off shore high shifting further towards the southwest around a week from Saturday. this could bring the storm track back to at least the northern half of California during the last week of the year.
Forecast: A low overcast this morning, mainly in Tulare and Kern Counties. Mostly clear skies elsewhere. Becoming mostly clear this afternoon through Monday with increasing amounts of morning fog and low clouds. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Monday night through Christmas Eve with widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings and with partial afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 56/29/56/28/57 | Reedley 55/28/55/28/57 | Dinuba 54/27/55/27/56 |
| Porterville 57/29/57/29/58 | Lindsay 56/27/57/27/57 | Delano 57/29/57/29/56 |
| Bakersfield 57/35/58/35/59 | Taft 57/45/58/46/60 | Arvin 56/33/58/33/60 |
| Lamont 56/34/58/33/60 | Pixley 56/29/55/29/55 | Tulare 54/28/55/28/55 |
| Woodlake 56/28/55/28/54 | Hanford 55/29/54/29/54 | Orosi 56/27/56/27/56 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Monday
AM fog/partial clearing 30/53 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partial clearing 32/52 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partial clearing 35/52 |
Christmas Eve
AM fog/partial clearing 37/51 |
Christmas
AM fog/partial clearing 37/51 |
Two Week Outlook: Christmas Day through New Year’s Eve: This model is indicating near average precipitation over the northern half of California with below average precipitation over the southern half of the state. Temperatures are projected to be marginally above average.
December: This model shows above average temperatures during the month of December. Southern California should experience below average precipitation. There is some hope for northern and central California, however, as this model spits out equal chances of above or below average rainfall. We’re hoping for the above average side of things.
December, January, February: This model definitely reflects a La Nina pattern, which is when ocean temperatures are below average through the equatorial waters off of Peru, extending into the mid Pacific. Typically, this results in above average temperatures for much of the southern half of the U.S., including California, with unfortunately below average precipitation for California including the valley.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Monday will be generally less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Dry conditions will prevail for the next seven days. Some models project the storm track will affect northern California beginning the 26 and possibly at times through the New Year.
Frost Discussion: Most locations were slightly above freezing last night. Lindsay was the coldest at 30 as of 6:30 this morning followed by 31 at Lindcove and McFarland. Low clouds in Kern County kept temperatures in the upper 30s to even the lower 40s. the upslope clouds currently covering the southern and southeastern flanks of the valley will slowly dissipate, leaving hazy afternoon sunshine today. The air mass which has moved in behind yesterday’s system is what I call seasonably cold.
There are two possible solutions over the next five to six days. Solution number 1 would have areas of night and morning fog and low clouds with clearing in the afternoon, in which case upper 20s and lower 30s would be dominant. Solution number 2 is that we move into a full fledged fog regime under a warm air inversion, resulting in chilly daytime highs but generally above freezing temperatures at night. in recent years, I’ve seen many patterns that would seem ideal for a fog regime but it didn’t seem to materialize. So, as we head into the weekend, conditions seem ideal for a fog regime, but we’ll see.
For tonight, coldest frost pockets could drop as low as 26 to 27 with most flatland locations between 28 and 32 and low to mid 30s in portions of Kern County. Because of the two possible solutions in the summary, we’ll just approach this day by day and study the fog’s behavior.
It appears more and more likely that the arctic air mass will remain to the east of central California as there is now a trend for the high off the Pacific coast to be far enough to the east so that the arctic push of air will move into the Rockies and Midwest.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
Mcfarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
28 |
Lindcove
27 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
26 |
| Root Creek
27 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmin
29 |
| Arvin
34 |
Lamont
33 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
29 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 18, 2020:
The air quality for the entire valley is Moderate.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Kern, mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 91%/56% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .37, Parlier .25, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .35, Orange Cove .23, Porterville .NA, Delano .32. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 50, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 51, Delano 45
Record Temperatures: 71/26. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: NA
Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.6 +3.5
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.08, or -1.45, Month to Date: .80, or -.03
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .40, +or- -1.04 Month to date .01, or -.49
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 355, Parlier, 434, Arvin, 357, Belridge, 420, Shafter, 402, Stratford, 411, Delano, 448, Porterville, 497
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:07 am Sunset: 4:46 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 58 / 46 / 0.19 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 46 / 0.14 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 58 / 47 / 0.01 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 61 / 42 / T /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 64 / 43 / 0.01 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 63 / 43 / T /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 43 / 0.02 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 61 / 45 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1500 / 57 / 40 / T /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DHM / M / 37 / M /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.32 1.70 47 4.05 112 3.62 14.06
MODESTO 0.25 1.45 48 2.79 92 3.04 13.11
MERCED 0.19 2.10 80 M M 2.62 12.50
MADERA 0.14 0.69 25 M M 2.79 12.02
FRESNO 0.01 1.08 43 M M 2.53 11.50
HANFORD T 0.49 24 M M 2.05 10.10
BAKERSFIELD T 0.40 28 M M 1.44 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.01 1 1.06 91 1.17 5.18
SALINAS 0.17 0.83 28 4.12 140 2.95 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 0.30 12 4.70 181 2.59 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.01 0.31 11 2.68 91 2.95 13.95
Next report: December 18/pm