California is now on the eastern flank of upper level high pressure over the eastern Pacific. This high will slowly shift eastward, blanketing California and into the interior west. This is tightening the warm air inversion above the valley floor. The balloon sounding above Oakland a few hours ago indicated the freezing level has risen to 11,200 feet.
Dense fog is widespread this morning. in fact, every location between Bakersfield and Merced was reporting ¼ mile visibility or less. The lone exception as of 7:00am was Porterville.
For the next several days, temperature forecasting will be quite difficult. The ground fog will lift into a low overcast late this morning and this afternoon and will burn off in some areas while other locations may not see the sun at all. High temperatures each afternoon will only rise into the mid to upuer 40s in fog shrouded locations but will be as high as the upper 50s to the lower 60s where hazy sunshine prevails.
As per usual, the foothills and coastal sections will enjoy mild afternoons with mostly clear skies.
The next trough of low pressure will move through the Pacific Northwest and northern California Monday night and Tuesday. This system will be too far to the north for precipitation in central California. The only question is whether there will be enough energy this far south to mix out the fog and low clouds. At this point, it appears doubtful.
As the trough moves into the Rocky Mountain region, a sharp ridge of high pressure will build northward into Alaska and northwest Canada. This will set up a strong northerly flow into the Great Basin and Rocky Mountain region, allowing arctic air to plunge southward. Models still keep this air mass to the east of the Sierra Nevada, however a very strong surface high will also build over the Great Basin Wednesday, generating a strong off shore flow. This will spread cooler, drier air into the deserts of southern California.
Models show a weak upper low developing off the central coast on Thursday, moving into southern California Christmas Day. For now, the dynamics don’t look strong enough for precipitation, however the high over the eastern Pacific will break down the day after Christmas, possibly allowing a series of storms to run from west to east into at least the northern half of California and possibly further south. Some models also show a chance of precipitation around the 28th and again around New Year’s.
Forecast: Widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings with clearing in some areas during the mid to late afternoons through Tuesday night. Temperatures will be determined by when and where the fog burns off. Partly cloudy Wednesday and Christmas Eve with extensive fog and clouds nights and mornings. Increasing cloudiness Christmas Day with areas of night and morning clouds and fog leading to a chance of showers Saturday, mainly from Fresno County north.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/30/50/35/50 | Reedley 52/31/55/34/50 | Dinuba 50/30/49/35/50 |
| Porterville 56/29/54/30/52 | Lindsay 56/28/53/30/52 | Delano 54/30/52/34/51 |
| Bakersfield 58/36/57/37/60 | Taft 58/45/58/46/61 | Arvin 58/34/55/34/60 |
| Lamont 57/34/58/35/61 | Pixley 53/29/50/34/51 | Tulare 49/30/49/35/52 |
| Woodlake 52/29/52/32/51 | Hanford 50/31/50/33/51 | Orosi 53/28/52/31/51 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
AM fog/partial PM clearing 36/52 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partly cloudy 35/56 |
Christmas Eve
AM fog/partly cloudy 35/57 |
Christmas Day
AM fog/increasing clouds 40/60 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 41/58 |
Two Week Outlook: Christmas Day through New Year’s Eve: This model is indicating near average precipitation over the northern half of California with below average precipitation over the southern half of the state. Temperatures are projected to be marginally above average.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Tuesday will be generally less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Christmas Day. There is a bit of a wild card Wednesday and Thursday in the form of a weak upper low which will move into southern California. For now, it doesn’t look like there will be enough dynamics for rain in our neck of the woods. Beginning the day after Christmas, models are showing the high over the eastern Pacific breaking down. This would create a zonal flow into the Pacific Northwest and possibly the northern 2/3 of California. For now, we’ll call for a small chance of rain next Saturday from manly Fresno County north and possibly more a few days beyond.
Frost Discussion: Upper 20s and lower 30s were widespread north of Kern County this morning with low to mid 30s over much of Kern County. The coldest I could find as of 6:30 was Exeter at 28 and Lindsay and McFarland at 27. Through at least Wednesday morning, low temperatures will be determined by a race between fog and low clouds and where skies remain relatively clear. The bottom line is, where it remains clear, upper 20s and lower 30s will be dominant and where fog lifts into a low overcast, temperatures will be above freezing.
As you can imagine, forecasting individual low temperatures under these conditions is tricky. The numbers forecast below will represent clear skies for most of the night. if skies do not clear, that’s fine, too. We could begin to see some higher clouds move in Wednesday and Thursday of next week and possibly even some rain by this coming Saturday. until then, it’ll be a cat and mouse game of trying to determine temps.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
29 |
Porterville
29 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
Mcfarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
29 |
Madera
30 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
29 |
North Bakersfield
30 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmin
30 |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
28 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
28 |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Kern, upper 30s to the lower 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 98%/60% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .36, Parlier .24, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .33, Orange Cove .23, Porterville .NA, Delano .31. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 54, Parlier 51, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 54, Porterville 51, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 74/25. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: NA This information has not been available for the past few days.Courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: NA
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.08, or -1.51, Month to Date: .80, or -.09
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .40, +or- -1.07 Month to date .01, or -.52
Water year season is from October 1st through September.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 370, Parlier, 450, Arvin, 369, Belridge, 431, Shafter, 417, Stratford, 426, Delano, 464, Porterville, 506
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:07 am Sunset: 4:46 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:39
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 53 / 35 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 51 / 34 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 53 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 34 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 33 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 57 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 55 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1535 / 56 / 38 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 36 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 36 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.70 46 4.11 111 3.70 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.45 47 2.80 90 3.11 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.10 78 0.00 0 2.68 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.69 24 0.00 0 2.85 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.08 42 0.00 0 2.59 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.49 23 0.00 0 2.11 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.40 27 0.00 0 1.47 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.01 1 1.06 89 1.19 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.83 28 4.22 140 3.01 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.30 11 4.73 178 2.66 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 0.31 10 2.72 90 3.02 13.95
Next report: December 19/pm