December 28, 2020
Summary: A line of showers is rotating around the low pressure system now moving into southern California. As the low continues to pull away, the showers will end. The temperature up at Sandburg is 34 degrees with snow falling just above the ridge route. Periods of snow may very well affect the Kern County mountains well into evening. The flow aloft behind the exiting system and upper level high pressure off shore will be out of the north for a fairly cold pattern over the next few days. Frost will again be a concern, especially beginning Wednesday morning. this is discussed below.
In the meantime, the next system upstream will move through the Pacific Northwest late Wednesday night and into the Great Basin on New Year’s Eve. I feel safe now in taking any chance of rain out of the forecast with the possible exception of the high Sierra. In fact, after today, the dry weather pattern will return, lasting through the coming weekend.
The main forecast challenge outside of frost will be the amount of low clouds and fog that develop. As the high takes over, at least a weak warm air inversion will take over. Now that the ground is again wet, fog and low clouds will have no problem forming with at least some afternoon clearing. It now appears we’ll have to wait for the first week in January, and probably after the 4th or so, before the storm track sags far enough to the south to bring precipitation back to central California. Models for after the fourth and fifth do appear to show wet weather as the jet stream sags southward into southern California.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy tonight and Tuesday morning. clearing Tuesday afternoon with some residual cloud cover remaining over Kern and Tulare Counties. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday night through Friday. Mostly clear Friday night through Sunday. Partly cloudy Sunday night and Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 32/53/29/52 | Reedley 34/52/28/51 | Dinuba 33/52/28/51 | |
| Porterville 34/53/28/53 | Lindsay 34/51/27/51 | Delano 35/53/29/52 | |
| Bakersfield 40/52/34/54 | Taft 42/53/44/53 | Arvin 39/53/32/54 | |
| Lamont 38/52/31/54 | Pixley 35/52/28/52 | Tulare 32/53/28/51 | |
| Woodlake 34/52/28/53 | Hanford 34/52/29/52 | Orosi 33/53/28/54 | |
Winds: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH, becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds Tuesday through Thursday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 5 MPH nights and early mornings with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: The following are storm totals as of midday. Mettler .18, bakersfield .30, Taft .16, Buttonwillow .08, Arvin .09, Lamont .15, delano .16, Porterville .32, Stratford .05, Arvin .14, Visalia .25, Exeter .26, Del Rey .33, Fresno .31, Madera .07.
The heaviest amounts were over the Tulare County portion of the Sierra Nevada. The showers in Kern County will end over the next few hours. Expect dry weather tonight and for the remainder of this week and possibly into next week, as well. The storm track will migrate back into the Pacific Northwest, affecting northern California from time to time. Dry weather will essentially cover the southern 2/3 of the state. Longer range models do give some hope for precipitation after about the fourth or fifth.
Frost: The coldest locations tonight, mainly in Madera, Fresno, and Kings Counties, may possibly dip into the lower 30s with most locations ranging in the 30s to possibly even lower 40s in Kern County. The upslope clouds will begin clearing Tuesday afternoon as high pressure noses in from the west. The cold air mass currently moving in will be trapped under the saddle of high pressure. Any morning from Wednesday on may see unprotected low spots dip to 26 to 27 or so with most flatland regions ranging from 28 to 31 and low to mid 30s in Kern County south of Bakersfield. fog and low clouds will become more prevalent as the atmosphere settles down and a warm air inversion develops. Like our first fog regime, it may get to the point where clearing is limited in some areas, even during the afternoons. If this protective blanket seals in, we will enjoy above freezing conditions.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bell
Af |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
Af |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
Af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
| Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
32 |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
Af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next update: Christmas morning