December 29, 2020
There is a considerable amount of low clouds stacked up against the Kern County mountains. The cloud deck is actually fairly high. Bakersfield reported the base at 6,000 feet and it’s 7,000 feet over Porterville. The remainder of the valley was reporting anywhere from clear to partly cloudy conditions with areas of dense fog.
Yesterday’s weather system has now morphed into an elongated trough extending from the Dakotas southwestward into Arizona. Upper level high pressure is just off shore and is generating a north/northeast flow aloft. This is continuing to pump cold air into central California. In fact, the freezing level over Vandenburg AFB was just 4,600 feet a few hours ago. As skies clear today, it will result in areas of fog, low clouds, and frost tonight.
The next system of note is quite weak. Even short range models are differing somewhat on the exact path. Some show it moving into the Pacific Northwest then southeastward into Nevada while others show a path further west, down into northern and central California. It’s possible a few light showers could spread as far south as Fresno County, but for now we’ll put that in the slight chance category.
After that system moves through, a flat zone of upper level high pressure will anchor off the northern California coast as a zonal, or west to east, flow crosses the eastern Pacific with multiple storms affecting the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California. The rain line Sunday and Monday will sag down to roughly a Bay Area/Stockton line with only small chances of light showers further south.
Beginning Tuesday, models are now showing the jet stream sagging further and further south. Theoretically, this would guide storms into central and eventually southern California. Before that, though, from Friday through Sunday we’ll experience widespread fog and low clouds with partial afternoon clearing in some areas.
Forecast: Mostly cloudy this morning in Kern and southern Tulare Counties. Partly cloudy elsewhere with areas of dense fog and/or low clouds. Mostly clear tonight with widespread fog and low clouds developing before sunrise, mainly north of Kern County. Widespread morning fog and low clouds Wednesday morning with hazy afternoon sunshine. Widespread fog and low clouds again Wednesday night and Thursday morning with increasing higher clouds Thursday and a slight chance of sprinkles from Fresno County north Thursday and Thursday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Saturday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Variable cloudiness Sunday through Monday night with a slight chance of showers from Fresno County north. A higher risk of showers Tuesday.
Short Term:
| Madera 53/28/53/34/54 | Reedley 53/29/54/35/54 | Dinuba 52/27/53/33/53 |
| Porterville 54/28/54/34/54 | Lindsay 53/27/53/33/53 | Delano 54/29/53/35/54 |
| Bakersfield 52/35/55/37/53 | Taft 52/41/55/43/52 | Arvin 51/32/55/36/52 |
| Lamont 52/31/55/35/54 | Pixley 54/29/53/34/54 | Tulare 53/27/53/34/53 |
| Woodlake 53/28/53/34/53 | Hanford 54/28/54/35/54 | Orosi 53/27/53/33/53 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| New Year’s Day
AM fog/PM sun 33/54 |
Saturday
Am fog/PM sun 32/54 |
Sunday
Slight chance of showers 37/57 |
Monday
Slight chance of showers 40/58 |
Tuesday
Chance of rain 42/58 |
Two Week Outlook: January 4 through January 10: This is the most encouraging two week model forecast I’ve seen for a while. It projects above average precipitation for all of California as the storm track migrates southward. Temperatures will be near to marginally below average.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Friday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Wednesday night. there is a slight chance of a few sprinkles from Fresno County north Thursday and Thursday night, otherwise dry conditions will prevail through at least Saturday night. the storm track will be sagging slowly southward Sunday and Monday but will remain just to our north. It’s possible light showers could spread as far south as Fresno County Sunday and Monday. Most models are now indicating the jet stream will sag further south Tuesday through Friday of next week. Theoretically, this could produce significant precipitation and heavy snow in the high Sierra.
Frost Discussion: The air mass currently moving into central California is cold, but not critically so. Where skies clear tonight, river bottom and other low spots could drop down to 25 to 26 degrees with most flat land locations between 27 and 31. It’s possible residual cloud cover could remain over portions of Kern and Tulare Counties. Widespread dense fog is also likely in areas that clear. This could potentially affect the outcome tonight as well. Even so, this is a cold air mass. The freezing level above Vandenburg AFB a little bit ago was 4,600 feet.
The inversion tonight will begin fairly weak but will firm up after midnight with temperatures at 34 feet generally from 3 to 6 degrees warmer.
Lows Thursday morning may very well be held up by increasing amounts of higher clouds and fog and low clouds. New Year’s morning, for now, expect generally low to mid 30s with the combination of fog and low clouds with higher clouds above. For Saturday and possibly Sunday, upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible. Monday and beyond, the pattern will become more and more active with a milder westerly flow aloft.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bell
27 |
Porterville
28 |
Ivanhoe
27 |
Woodlake
28 |
| Strathmore
28 |
McFarland
27 |
Ducor
29 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
27 |
Exeter
27 |
Famoso
28 |
Madera
28 |
| Belridge
26 |
Delano
28 |
North Bakersfield
28 |
Orosi
27 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
26 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
31 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
28 |
Mettler
31 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
28 |
Holland Creek
31 |
Tivy Valley
27 |
| Kite Road South
31 |
Kite Road North
27 |
AF=Above Freezing
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 29, 2020:
The air quality for is moderate for Kern County. The air quality for the remainder of the growing area is good.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Mid to upper 40s
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/55% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 60%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET INORMATION IS UNAVALIABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. Stratford .24, Parlier .32, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .23, Porterville .NA, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 69/24. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 880 courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 46.0 +2.4 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -1.84, Month to Date: 1.14, or -.42
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .70, +or- -1.16 Month to date .31, or -.60
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 497, Parlier, 585, Arvin, 463, Belridge, 534, Shafter, 541, Stratford, 562, Delano, 604, Porterville, 659
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:11 am Sunset: 4:52 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:40
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 57 / 45 / 0.08 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 59 / 45 / 0.07 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 47 / 0.31 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 45 / 0.14 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / 37 / 0.03 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 56 / 47 / 0.21 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 59 / 44 / 0.24 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1552 / 51 / 42 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 44 / 0.22 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 50/ 44 / 0.18 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 54 / 43 / M /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON T 1.83 41 4.19 93 4.50 14.06
MODESTO 0.02 1.52 39 3.22 83 3.86 13.11
MERCED 0.08 2.23 68 0.00 0 3.30 12.50
MADERA T 0.77 22 0.00 0 3.53 12.02
FRESNO 0.28 1.42 44 0.00 0 3.26 11.50
HANFORD 0.12 0.68 24 0.00 0 2.87 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.21 0.70 38 0.00 0 1.85 6.47
BISHOP 0.20 0.21 14 1.10 73 1.51 5.18
SALINAS 0.02 0.88 24 4.76 129 3.70 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.41 0.98 29 5.78 169 3.42 12.78
SANTA MARIA 1.02 1.72 45 3.86 102 3.80 13.95
Next report: December 29/pm