December 30, 2020
Summary: Temperatures have warmed into the mid 50s this afternoon under partly cloudy skies. The current cloud cover is of the high variety, based near 20,000 feet. To our north, a rapidly moving low pressure system is tracking through the Pacific Northwest. Light showers have spread as far south as Ukiah along the coast and the northern Sacramento Valley inland. The strongest dynamics of this storm will move quickly into western Nevada later tonight and will be centered somewhere near Yuma, Arizona by New Year’s morning. skies will be mostly clear this evening, but then clouds will quickly increase from the northwest later tonight. I wouldn’t rule out a few sprinkles Thursday through Thursday evening anywhere in the valley, but especially from Fresno County north. Measurable precipitation, as rare as it may be, should be confined to the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.
Skies will begin to clear during the early morning hours Friday as we rid ourselves of the year 2020. Areas of ground fog will no doubt form Friday morning, otherwise New Year’s Day will be generally clear to possibly partly cloudy.
A flat zone of high pressure will extend from the eastern Pacific into the southern 2/3 of California through Sunday. We call it a zonal flow, which is generally a flat west to east flow in the upper atmosphere and it will continue to hit the Pacific Northwest with storm after storm. The good news is, the jet stream will sag further and further south, resulting in heavy precipitation over northern California Monday and Tuesday with light rain spreading over central California, mainly north of Kern County.
Models continue to point towards a significant wet period from next Thursday to next Saturday. some medium range models are suggesting a strong low will be off the coast of Oregon and northern California with the jet stream moving from south/southwest to east/northeast into southern and central California. There’s even a chance of a pineapple connection setting up, if I may be so bold!
Forecast:Mostly clear this evening. Increasing cloudiness later tonight. mostly cloudy Thursday well into Thursday night with a chance of sprinkles. After areas of morning fog New Year’s Day it will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Friday through Saturday night. increasing cloudiness Sunday. Mostly cloudy Sunday night. light rain becoming likely at times Monday through Tuesday, mainly north of Kern County. A chance of showers Tuesday night through Wednesday night.
Short Term:
| Madera 37/54/32/55 | Reedley 36/54/33/54 | Dinuba 35/53/32/53 | |
| Porterville 35/54/32/56 | Lindsay 34/54/31/56 | Delano 36/53/32/57 | |
| Bakersfield 37/53/35/58 | Taft 44/53/45/58 | Arvin 36/52/34/57 | |
| Lamont 36/53/33/57 | Pixley 35/54/32/55 | Tulare 34/53/31/55 | |
| Woodlake 34/55/31/55 | Hanford 36/54/33/56 | Orosi 34/53/31/55 | |
Winds: Winds through Saturday will be generally at or less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons and at or less than 5 MPH nights and early mornings with extended periods of near calm conditions through Thursday.
Rain: Sprinkles will be possible late tonight through well into Thursday night. I don’t anticipate measurable rain on the valley floor, however. Dry weather will prevail New Year’s Day and more than likely through Sunday night. the storm track will migrate slowly southward Sunday with light rain possibly reaching Fresno County by Monday morning and into Kings and Tulare Counties Monday afternoon. Kern County will be right on the dividing line between light rain in southern California and active weather further north. The chance of light rain will continue on and off through Tuesday with a minimal chance of showers Tuesday night and Wednesday. From Thursday through Saturday of next week, models continue to show a robust low off the Oregon and northern California coast with the jet stream flanked underneath that low and into central and southern California. There’s even a possibility of a pineapple connection. If we can somehow pull this pattern off, heavy rain and show would be likely over the Sierra Nevada with significant rain on the valley floor, assuming rain shadows don’t interfere.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. it’s possible a few frog ponds or sinkhole locations could dip down to 31 to 32, but that will certainly be more the exception than the rule. Cloud cover will increase during the second half of the night with abundant cloud cover lasting into Thursday night. it’s possible skies will begin to clear after midnight Thursday, possibly allowing coldest locations down into the upper 20s and lower 30s with most locations in the low to mid 30s. the risk factor for upper 20s and lower 30s is higher Saturday morning then from Sunday morning through at least Friday of next week, above freezing conditions can be expected due to a mild westerly flow across the Pacific and into California, steering storms our way from time to time.
Next update: December 31/am