A fast moving low pressure system is currently moving through western Nevada. There is a lobe of energy on the far western side of the system which is resulting in light showers this morning. the showers have already ended north of a Visalia line, but continue in Kern County. This is a fast moving system so clearing will begin later this morning. however, with a push of north/northwest winds aloft behind this system, low level upslope clouds will be generated against the valley facing slopes of the Kern County mountains and, to a lesser extent, the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada.
The balloon sounding above Oakland a few hours ago indicated a freezing level right at 5,000 feet so it’s possible light snow may be falling near the top of the ridge route and in Tehachapi.
New Year’s Day will find a flat zone of upper level high pressure beginning to push in from the west. This will be the beginning of a zonal flow with the storm track moving into the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern 1/3 of California through the weekend. The first in a series of Pacific storms will sag southward into northern and central California Monday into Tuesday morning. As per usual, heaviest rainfall amounts will be to our north with generally light amounts in the valley, especially north of Kern County.
A temporary ridge of upper level high pressure will move into California Tuesday night and early Wednesday. on Wednesday night and Thursday, a vigorous low pressure system will be off the northern California coast, spreading more significant precipitation over central California. Currently, it’s questionable whether a pineapple connection will develop as some models are backing off on that possibility. After Friday of next week, a strong ridge will build in from the west for what could be an extended dry period.
Forecast: Light showers in Kern County for a time this morning. otherwise it will be mostly to partly cloudy through tonight. mostly cloudy Friday morning in Kern County and possibly portions of Tulare County, otherwise it will be mostly clear to partly cloudy with patchy morning fog. Mostly clear to partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. Mostly cloudy Sunday night. periods of rain Monday through Tuesday morning, mainly north of Kern County. Variable cloudiness Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. increasing cloudiness Wednesday night. rain likely Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 55/29/55/30/57 | Reedley 54/30/56/30/58 | Dinuba 54/29/55/29/57 |
| Porterville 54/30/56/30/59 | Lindsay 53/29/56/29/58 | Delano 53/32/56/31/60 |
| Bakersfield 52/38/57/38/61 | Taft 52/42/57/45/60 | Arvin 51/35/57/34/62 |
| Lamont 51/36/58/34/61 | Pixley 54/30/56/30/59 | Tulare 54/29/56/29/57 |
| Woodlake 54/30/56/29/57 | Hanford 55/32/56/31/58 | Orosi 54/29/56/29/57 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Increasing clouds 42/62 |
Monday
Periods of rain 48/58 |
Tuesday
AM rain 46/53 |
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy 39/57 |
Thursday
Rain likely 40/58 |
Two Week Outlook: January 4 through January 10: This is the most encouraging two week model forecast I’ve seen for a while. It projects above average precipitation for all of California as the storm track migrates southward. Temperatures will be near to marginally below average.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds today will be mainly out of the northwest at around 5 to 12 MPH with gusts to near 20 MPH possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor, diminishing this evening. Winds tonight through Sunday morning will be at or less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours and generally less than 10 MPH late mornings and afternoons. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH.
Rain Discussion: There has been some measurable rain in the valley this morning. as of 6:30, Lemoore had recorded .07, Westlands .03, Del Ray .02, Fresno, Taft, and Tulare .01.
The light showers have ended north of Kern County and will come to an end later this morning there. Expect dry weather later today through Sunday night.
The storm track will sag southward Monday. The main dynamics of this first storm will be over northern Californian. Even so, light rain will overspread the valley late Monday through Tuesday morning, mainly north of Kern County. I currently feel .10 to.25 is possible, especially from Fresno County north with just a few hundredths in Kern County.
A temporary slot of dry weather will return later Tuesday through at least Wednesday evening. Thursday and Friday of next week appears to be the best opportunity at significant amounts of valley rain and mountain snow. Some models have backed off on the possibility of a pineapple connection, however, even without that it still appears a significant precipitation event will unfold. For now it appears from next Friday night and beyond will be dry.
Frost Discussion: Conditions tonight will be variable from place to place. The fast moving system jetting through this morning will be followed by plenty of low level upslope clouds in Kern and Tulare Counties which may very well last into Friday morning. there are two possible solutions tonight. Locations that remain under the low cloud deck will be in the 30s. Locations with clear skies and where winds become calm will drop into the upper 20s to lower 30s.
Coldest unprotected low spots could potentially drop down to 27 to 28 with most flatland locations north of Kern County ranging from 29 to 33. Most locations in Kern County will range in the 30s due to cloud cover.
On Saturday morning, we could see widespread upper 20s and lower 30s with low to mid 30s south of Bakersfield. beginning Sunday morning, a mild westerly flow will be in place along with increasing amounts of cloud cover. A weak southerly surface flow will also develop.
Rain will arrive Monday, ushering in an active weather week which will keep temperatures above freezing through at least next Friday.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
32 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
32 |
Orosi
29 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
30 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
30 |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
30 |
AF=Above Freezing
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for December 31, 2020:
The air quality for is good in Madera County and moderate in the remainder of the growing area.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/55% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 40%, tomorrow 60%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET INORMATION IS UNAVALIABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. Stratford .24, Parlier .32, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .23, Porterville .NA, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 69/23. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 920 courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 46.9 +2.3 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -1.98, Month to Date: 1.14, or -.56
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .70, +or- -1.22 Month to date .31, or -.67
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 525, Parlier, 615, Arvin, 483, Belridge, 561, Shafter, 570, Stratford, 592, Delano, 634, Porterville, 678
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:54 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:41
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 56 / 30 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 58 / 30 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 57 / 37 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 57 / 30 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 59 / 28 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DHM / 55 / 36 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 32 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DHM / M / 36 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 58 / 33 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 57 / 31 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 1.83 39 4.32 93 4.65 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.52 38 3.23 81 4.01 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.23 65 0.00 0 3.44 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 21 0.00 0 3.67 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 42 0.00 0 3.40 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.65 21 0.00 0 3.04 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.70 36 0.00 0 1.92 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 13 1.10 70 1.58 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.87 23 5.06 132 3.84 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.98 27 6.01 168 3.58 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.76 44 4.16 105 3.97 13.95
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.98 28 5.93 170 3.49 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.76 45 4.05 104 3.89 13.95
Next report: December 31/pm