Summary: The fast moving low pressure system which brought the light showers this morning has raced southeastward and is now centered over southwest Arizona. Behind this system is a northwest flow which is generating low level upslope clouds against the southern Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains. As of 1:30pm, Bakersfield was reporting a ceiling of just 700 feet, Porterville was also reporting 700 feet, Visaila was overcast at 2,000 feet, and 2,200 feet at Fresno. Northwest winds are also moving down the west side of the valley and are averaging 10 to 20 MPH and generally 8 to 15 MPH from Fresno County north. These clouds will begin to clear alogn the west side during the night as drier air moves in from the west/northwest. Cloud cover may very well keep regenerating over Kern and Tulare Counties for most, if not the entire, night.
Beginning Friday, upper level high pressure will begin to shift in from the west. A flat zone of high pressure will cover the eastern Pacific, across the southern 2/3 of California, and into the Great Basin with the storm track continuing to pound the Pacific Northwest and the northern ¼ of California through Sunday.
A rather robust low pressure system will be centered just west of Crescent City by late Monday afternoon. Rain will overspread central California all the way down into Kern County Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning. from Fresno County north, it’s possible we could get a decent soaking with this event with lighter amounts in the south valley. We will also have to watch the possibility of gusty southeast winds Sunday night and Monday, both along the west side and possibly in the extreme south valley.
From Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, a very temporary ridge of high pressure will move through for a return to dry weather. That will change later Wednesday night and Thursday as a trough of low pressure moves through. Unfortunately, models are trending towards the lack of a pineapple connection with this system, but more than likely it will be your garden variety trough of low pressure with rain, but not the potentially big event I was hoping for a day or so ago.
After Friday of next week, models revert back to the La Nina pattern with storm after storm pounding the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California from time to time with central and southern California remaining dry.
Forecast: A low overcast will continue in Kern and Tulare Counties for much of the night with mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions elsewhere. Patchy fog will develop after about midnight. Partly cloudy Friday after the low clouds and patchy fog burn off. Partly cloudy Friday night through Saturday night with areas of patchy night and morning fog and low clouds. Increasing cloudiness Sunday. Mostly cloudy Sunday night. Rain becoming likely at times Monday, especially during the afternoon. Rain at times Monday night and Tuesday morning. mostly to partly cloudy Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. increasing cloudiness Wednesday night with a chance of rain after midnight. Rain likely at times Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/55/30/58 | Reedley 30/56/30/58 | Dinuba 29/55/30/57 | |
| Porterville 31/56/30/59 | Lindsay 30/55/29/58 | Delano 35/57/31/59 | |
| Bakersfield 40/57/37/60 | Taft 44/57/45/60 | Arvin 37/57/33/61 | |
| Lamont 37/56/33/61 | Pixley 32/57/30/59 | Tulare 29/54/29/57 | |
| Woodlake 30/56/30/58 | Hanford 33/57/31/59 | Orosi 29/55/30/57 | |
Winds: Winds from northern Tulare county northward this evening will be out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH. In western Fresno County and northwest Kings County, winds will be out of the northwest at 10 to 20 MPH, diminishing later this evening. Winds later tonight will decrease to less than 6 MPH with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Friday through Saturday night during the late mornings and afternoons will be variable to no more than 10 MPH and at or less than 5 MPH during the nights and mornings with periods of near calm conditions. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH, increasing to around 10 to 20 MPH with stronger gusts along the west side. There is a low chance of strong, gusty, downslope winds near the base of the Tehachapi Mountains, mainly Sunday night and Monday morning.
Rain: Dry weather will continue through Sunday night. the chance of rain will begin to increase Monday, especially during the second half of the day, with rain at times Monday night and Tuesday morning north of Kern County. Light showers can be expected over the valley portion of Kern County. Dry weather will return later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday. the chance of rain will pick up again later Wednesday night through Thursday night. rainfall amounts Monday through Tuesday look to be possibly .25 to .33 in Madera, eastern Fresno, and possibly much of Tulare County with perhaps .10 to .20 in western Fresno and Kings County and generally less than .10 over the valley portion of Kern County. The latest model runs for the Thursday/Friday storm are not as impressive as they were earlier. Even so, the chance of rain appears high, even though we’re still a week out. Unfortunately, models are trending back towards a dry La Nina pattern with storms moving into the Pacific Northwest and parts of northern California from next Friday and for several days thereafter.
Frost: Conditions tonight will vary widely. Currently, widespread low clouds cover all of Kern and Tulare Counties and much of eastern Fresno County. Some clearing is taking place along the west side. The base of the overcast varies from 700 feet at Porterville to 2,200 feet at Fresno. For now, it appears this overcast will continue to regenerate for the rest of the night, so it’s possible a low overcast will keep conditions above freezing in Kern County and possibly even eastern and southern Tulare County. As we all know from experience, that is not a given.
Where skies clear and winds die off, upper 20s and lower 30s will be likely with the coldest low spots dropping down to 27 to 28 or so. Most flat terrain locations will range from 29 to 33. Most, if not all, of Kern County will likely remain above freezing.
There is a greater risk of upper 20s and lower 30s Saturday morning. however, it’s also possible cloud cover from the next Pacific storm could move in, keeping temperatures milder than anticipated. The good news is, from Sunday morning through at least next Friday, temperatures will be above freezing due to an active weather pattern.
Nothing on medium range models at this time suggests a seriously cold weather pattern.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
31 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
29 |
Woodlake
30 |
| Strathmore
30 |
McFarland
31 |
Ducor
31 |
Tea Pot Dome
30 |
| Lindsay
29 |
Exeter
29 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
29 |
Delano
32 |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
30 |
| Orange Cove
30 |
Lindcove
29 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
27 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
30 |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
30 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next update: January 1/late morning