We will be out of the office this afternoon. Thank you for your patience.
January 5, 2021
The southern half of the valley is under a low overcast this morning. it’s actually a bit higher than most upslope cloud events. The base of the overcast above Visalia is 4,700 feet, 4,900 feet above Porterville, and 5,500 feet above Bakersfield. these clouds will slowly mix out during the late morning and early afternoon hours.
Obviously, yesterday’s storm was a dismal failure. It seems that’s the way it is in dry years, though I must admit models have been doing the worse job I’ve seen in quite some time over the past few weeks and have generally been over-estimating the southern limit of storms this winter season.
The remainder of this week will be dry. Two systems will move rapidly through northern California this week: one Wednesday night and the second on Friday. Both will spread showers no further south than a Bay Area/Stockton line, if that.
The main challenge this upcoming week will be the probability of extensive night and morning fog as a warm air inversion develops above the valley floor. It’s possible some areas may not even clear during the afternoon from Wednesday on, especially up the center of the valley north of Kern County. Models show the high strengthening over the weekend, increasing the chance of a full fledged fog regime. Another system is shown moving over the top of the high into the Pacific Northwest Monday.
The bottom line is that there is a good chance now that we will remain dry through the middle of January.
Forecast: A low overcast this morning over Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties. Mostly clear in Fresno and Madera Counties with areas of dense fog. Mostly clear this afternoon. Widespread fog and low clouds developing tonight. clearing in most areas Wednesday afternoon. It will be mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Wednesday night through Friday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds. From Friday night through Tuesday, conditions will be mostly clear with widespread fog and low clouds and partial afternoon clearing.
Short Term:
| Madera 58/35/58/36/59 | Reedley 58/34/57/34/58 | Dinuba 56/33/57/33/57 |
| Porterville 56/34/57/34/58 | Lindsay 57/33/57/33/58 | Delano 56/35/57/35/59 |
| Bakersfield 54/42/59/41/61 | Taft 55/47/58/48/60 | Arvin 54/37/59/37/61 |
| Lamont 56/37/59/36/61 | Pixley 57/35/57/35/59 | Tulare 56/34/57/34/58 |
| Woodlake 57/33/57/34/58 | Hanford 57/36/57/35/58 | Orosi 57/33/57/34/58 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Friday
AM fog/partly cloudy 38/59 |
Saturday
AM fog/partial clearing 38/56 |
Sunday
AM fog/partial clearing 37/56 |
Monday
AM fog/partial clearing 38/57 |
Tuesday
AM fog/partial clearing 36/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 11 through January 17: A blocking ridge pattern definitely shows up on this model outlook. The storm track will move well north of central California, bringing the chance of rain down into the low category with above average temperatures.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Friday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
We will be out of the office this afternoon. Thank you for your patience.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight and each night for the remainder of the week. However, river bottom and low lying frost pockets may briefly dip into the lower 30s on any morning with mostly clear skies and fog free conditions.
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for January 5, 2021:
The air quality is Moderate for the entire growing area.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 90%/55% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 60%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET INORMATION IS UNAVALIABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. Stratford .24, Parlier .32, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .23, Porterville .NA, Delano .26. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 48, Blackwell 55, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 51, Porterville 51, Delano 44
Record Temperatures: 72/20. Average Temperatures: 53/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 989 courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.0 +5.0 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -2.34, Month to Date: .00 or -.29
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.37 Month to date .00, or -.15
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 557, Parlier, 651, Arvin, 531, Belridge, 606, Shafter, 623, Stratford, 628, Delano, 674, Porterville, 728
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 4:58 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:46
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 60 / 43 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 62 / 42 / T /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 63 / 47 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 41 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 38 / T /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 67 / 43 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 64 / 42 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1542 / 67 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 42 / 0.00 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 58 / 43 / T /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.15 2.09 41 4.33 86 5.06 14.06
MODESTO T 1.54 35 3.23 74 4.39 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 58 M M 3.95 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 18 M M 4.19 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 38 M M 3.76 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 19 M M 3.53 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 35 M M 2.11 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 12 1.10 61 1.79 5.18
SALINAS 0.01 0.96 23 5.06 120 4.22 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 25 6.01 150 4.00 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 40 4.16 95 4.38 13.95
Next report: January 5/pm