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Forecast

January 8, 2021/report

January 8, 2021

Fog and low clouds stretch from the base of the Kern County mountains northward to almost Sacramento this morning.  every reporting station is reporting ½ mile visibility or less with most locations at or less than ¼ mile.  The only exception is the Fresno Air Terminal which is reporting 1 mile visibility with a ceiling of just 1,000 feet.

 

A fast moving trough of low pressure is moving through northern California at this hour.  Radar returns are very weak and mainly confined to the northern Sierra Nevada and the Mount Siskiyou region.

 

Beginning tonight, an amplified ridge of upper level high pressure will build along the Pacific coast, topping out in western Canada.  This high will seal our doom as a warm air inversion builds above the valley floor.  The warm descending air underneath that dome of high pressure will trap a cool layer of moist air into roughly the lower 1,500 feet of the atmosphere, making conditions ideal for widespread fog and low clouds nights and mornings with partial clearing in the afternoons, especially in Kern County and along the foothills.  Temperatures will be governed by clearing, or the lack thereof.  Areas that remain locked under a low overcast will shiver in the mid to upper 40s.  locations with some hazy sunshine will warm into the upper 50s to the lower 60s.

 

The storm track will  move back into the Pacific Northwest Monday and Tuesday.  Models show a strong high anchoring off the California coast from the middle of next week and beyond.  It will eventually cover the western one-third of the U.S.

 

The two week model, encompassing the 15 through the 21, indicates a high probability that dry weather will continue.

 

Forecast:  Widespread dense fog this morning, lifting into a low overcast this afternoon with partial clearing and some areas of hazy sunshine.  Widespread fog and/or low clouds tonight through Monday with areas of clearing during the afternoons.  Widespread fog and low clouds with partial afternoon clearing will continue Monday night through Friday.    

 

Due to widespread fog and low clouds, individual temperature forecasting is very tentative.  If your location remains under a low overcast, expect mid to upper 40s for highs.  If your location observes hazy sunshine, upper 50s to even lower 60s are likely. 

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 53/35/54/35/52 Reedley 52/36/53/37/53 Dinuba 52/35/52/37/53
Porterville 57/34/56/34/55 Lindsay 56/33/55/34/54 Delano 54/36/55/37/55
Bakersfield 57/41/57/40/58 Taft 56/44/56/46/58 Arvin 60/36/57/36/60
Lamont 59/36/59/37/60 Pixley 54/35/53/35/55 Tulare 50/35/52/35/52
Woodlake 53/36/55/35/55 Hanford 49/37/52/37/53 Orosi 53/34/55/34/53

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Monday

AM fog/partial clearing

38/53

Tuesday

AM fog/partial clearing

38/53

Wednesday

AM fog/partial clearing

37/57

Thursday

AM fog/partial clearing

39/58

Friday

AM fog/partial clearing

40/62

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 15 through January 21:  A blocking ridge pattern definitely shows up on this model outlook.  The storm track will move well north of central California, bringing the chance of rain down into the low category with above average temperatures.

 

January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all.  We’ll call it near average this time around.  Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.    

 

January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State.  Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.   

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through Monday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost Discussion: All locations will remain above 32 degrees.  One location west of Porterville hit 32 overnight.  All other locations ranged from 33 to 37.  Expect above freezing conditions to continue, however any relatively clear, fog free night will see temperatures in the lower 30s in river bottom and other low lying frost pockets.  Nothing on medium or long range models suggesting a pattern conducive for cold weather.

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for January 8, 2021:

 

The air quality is Unsafe for Sensitive Groups in Fresno and Kern Counties and is Moderate for the remainder of the growing area.         

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 40s.  Mid to upper 40s

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/68% Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 20%.  Bakersfield: Today: 40% Tomorrow: 30%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:  Stratford .35, Parlier .42, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .41, Orange Cove .29, Porterville .NA, Delano .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46

Record Temperatures: 72/22. Average Temperatures: 53/35

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1049.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.4 +5.4 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  1.42,  or -2.55,  Month to Date: .T  or -.50

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .74, +or-  -1.48  Month to date .00,  or -.26

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 585, Parlier, 689,  Arvin, 558, Belridge, 638, Shafter, 648, Stratford, 667, Delano, 710, Porterville, 753

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:12 am   Sunset: 5:01 pm   Hours of Daylight:  9:48

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  48 /  34 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  48 /  32 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  55 /  39 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  57 /  38 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  57 /  31 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1600 /  58 /  39 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  56 /  38 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1547 /  56 /  37 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  60 /  34 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  50 /  38 / 0.00 /

 

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    2.09    39    4.33    82     5.31    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    1.54    33    3.23    70     4.62    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.28    54    0.00     0     4.26    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.77    17    0.00     0     4.49    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.42    36    0.00     0     3.97    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.67    18    0.00     0     3.80    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.74    33    0.00     0     2.22     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.21    11    1.10    58     1.91     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.96    22    5.06   113     4.46    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.99    23    6.01   141     4.25    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.77    38    4.16    90     4.63    13.95

 

Next report: January 8/pm