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Forecast

January 9, 2021/report

January 9, 2021

Once again this morning, the valley is blanketed in fog and low clouds.  However, it is off the deck in most locations as most reporting stations are reporting visibility of a mile or more, with a few exceptions.  Madera is down to ½ mile and both Porterville and Fresno are reporting ¾ of a mile.  Porterville is also reporting some light drizzle.  The base of the low overcast ranges from just 200 feet at Porterville and Fresno to 1,600 feet at Lemoore.

 

We also now have an off shore flow as surface high pressure is settling into the Great Basin.  This will crank up the Santa Ana winds in southern California.  Typically, this pattern does not disturb the valley floor much except for Kern County where more mixing takes place, resulting in a much higher chance of afternoon clearing.

 

The overall pattern shows upper level high pressure about  overhead this morning with a sharp ridge jutting northward into western Canada.  The northern portion of the high will give way late Sunday into Monday, allowing the storm track to move back to the water logged Pacific Northwest.

 

Beginning Tuesday and for the rest of next week, all models show a strong high centered off the central and southern California coast, extending inland and basically covering the western 1/3 of the U.S.  By Wednesday and Thursday of next week, the foothills surrounding the valley will be in the mid 60s to even the lower 70s.  With a strong warm air inversion just above the valley floor, widespread fog and low overcast is likely each day.  Temperatures will be determined by how much clearing occurs on a given afternoon.

 

Forecast:  Low overcast with areas of ground fog this morning.  clearing in most areas during the afternoon.  Widespread fog and low overcast tonight with partial clearing in the afternoon.  Widespread fog and low overcast nights and mornings with partial afternoon clearing Monday through Saturday.

 

Due to widespread fog and low clouds, individual temperature forecasting is very tentative.  If your location remains under a low overcast, expect mid to upper 40s for highs.  If your location observes hazy sunshine, upper 50s to even lower 60s are likely. 

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 54/34/55/34/53 Reedley 53/33/54/35/54 Dinuba 52/33/54/33/53
Porterville 56/33/58/35/53 Lindsay 55/33/58/35/54 Delano 55/34/58/34/54
Bakersfield 57/38/59/38/61 Taft 54/44/58/46/60 Arvin 58/35/59/36/62
Lamont 57/35/60/35/62 Pixley 54/33/58/34/54 Tulare 52/33/54/34/53
Woodlake 55/33/58/35/53 Hanford 52/35/54/35/53 Orosi 54/32/58/34/57

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Tuesday

AM fog/partial clearing

38/58

Wednesday

AM fog/partial clearing

36/58

Thursday

AM fog/partial clearing

39/63

Friday

AM fog/partial clearing

39/64

Saturday

AM fog/partial clearing

37/63

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 16 through January 22:  A blocking ridge pattern definitely shows up on this model outlook.  The storm track will move well north of central California, bringing the chance of rain down into the low category with above average temperatures.

 

January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all.  We’ll call it near average this time around.  Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.    

 

January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State.  Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.   

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through Tuesday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost Discussion: Temperatures last night dropped well down into the 30s before the fog and low overcast moved in in some areas.  The result was most locations ranged between 33 and 37.  A few locations did hit the freezing mark.  Exeter came in at 31 as of 6:30, which was the coldest I could find.  This pattern will be the name of the game for the next week to ten days.  If the fog and low overcast completely take over, above freezing conditions will prevail.  However, any night where skies are generally clear and fog free, coldest low lying regions will dip into the lower 30s.  Very strong upper level high pressure will build over California beginning Tuesday, so where it clears from mid week on, daytime highs will soar into the mid to upper 60s.  however, if the fog locks in completely, readings will only be in the upper 40s and lower 50s, at best.

 

Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella

32

Porterville

32

Ivanhoe

32

Woodlake

Af

Strathmore

Af

McFarland

32

Ducor

Af

Tea Pot Dome

Af

Lindsay

32

Exeter

31

Famoso

Af

Madera

Af

Belridge

32

Delano

Af

North Bakersfield

Af

Orosi

32

Orange Cove

Af

Lindcove

32

Lindcove Hillside

Af

Sanger River Bottom

30

Root Creek

31

Venice Hill

Af

Rosedale

Af

Jasmine

Af

Arvin

Af

Lamont

Af

Plainview

Af

Mettler

Af

Edison

Af

Maricopa

Af

Holland Creek

af

Tivy Valley

Af

Kite Road South

Af

Kite Road North

Af

AF=Above Freezing

 

 

Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for January 9, 2021:

 

The air quality is Unsafe for Sensitive Groups in Fresno, Tulare, and Kern Counties and is Moderate for the remainder of the growing area.         

 

The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com.  The option to use a specific address is available.

 

In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device

 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 40s.  Mid to upper 40s

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/68% Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 30%.  Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 50%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:  Stratford .35, Parlier .42, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .41, Orange Cove .29, Porterville .NA, Delano .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46

Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 54/35

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1068.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.0 +5.0 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  1.42,  or -2.62,  Month to Date: .T  or -.57

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .74, +or-  -1.52  Month to date .00,  or -.30

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 591, Parlier, 696,  Arvin, 565, Belridge, 645, Shafter, 655, Stratford, 674, Delano, 717, Porterville, 753

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:12 am   Sunset: 5:02 pm   Hours of Daylight:  9:49

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  50 /  42 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /   M /  41 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  54 /  42 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  55 /  37 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  55 /   M / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DH1500 /  61 /  34 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  56 /  37 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DH1551 /  61 /  37 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  59 /  35 / 0.00 /

TFTC1 : Taft                 759 : DHM    /   M /   M /    M /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  50 /  39 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    2.09    39    4.33    80     5.39    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    1.54    33    3.23    69     4.70    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.28    52    0.00     0     4.36    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.77    17    0.00     0     4.59    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.42    35    0.00     0     4.04    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.67    17    0.00     0     3.90    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.74    33    0.00     0     2.26     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.21    11    1.10    56     1.95     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.96    21    5.06   111     4.54    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.99    23    6.01   138     4.34    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.77    38    4.16    88     4.72    13.95

Next report: January 9/pm