January 9, 2021
Once again this morning, the valley is blanketed in fog and low clouds. However, it is off the deck in most locations as most reporting stations are reporting visibility of a mile or more, with a few exceptions. Madera is down to ½ mile and both Porterville and Fresno are reporting ¾ of a mile. Porterville is also reporting some light drizzle. The base of the low overcast ranges from just 200 feet at Porterville and Fresno to 1,600 feet at Lemoore.
We also now have an off shore flow as surface high pressure is settling into the Great Basin. This will crank up the Santa Ana winds in southern California. Typically, this pattern does not disturb the valley floor much except for Kern County where more mixing takes place, resulting in a much higher chance of afternoon clearing.
The overall pattern shows upper level high pressure about overhead this morning with a sharp ridge jutting northward into western Canada. The northern portion of the high will give way late Sunday into Monday, allowing the storm track to move back to the water logged Pacific Northwest.
Beginning Tuesday and for the rest of next week, all models show a strong high centered off the central and southern California coast, extending inland and basically covering the western 1/3 of the U.S. By Wednesday and Thursday of next week, the foothills surrounding the valley will be in the mid 60s to even the lower 70s. With a strong warm air inversion just above the valley floor, widespread fog and low overcast is likely each day. Temperatures will be determined by how much clearing occurs on a given afternoon.
Forecast: Low overcast with areas of ground fog this morning. clearing in most areas during the afternoon. Widespread fog and low overcast tonight with partial clearing in the afternoon. Widespread fog and low overcast nights and mornings with partial afternoon clearing Monday through Saturday.
Due to widespread fog and low clouds, individual temperature forecasting is very tentative. If your location remains under a low overcast, expect mid to upper 40s for highs. If your location observes hazy sunshine, upper 50s to even lower 60s are likely.
Short Term:
Madera 54/34/55/34/53 | Reedley 53/33/54/35/54 | Dinuba 52/33/54/33/53 |
Porterville 56/33/58/35/53 | Lindsay 55/33/58/35/54 | Delano 55/34/58/34/54 |
Bakersfield 57/38/59/38/61 | Taft 54/44/58/46/60 | Arvin 58/35/59/36/62 |
Lamont 57/35/60/35/62 | Pixley 54/33/58/34/54 | Tulare 52/33/54/34/53 |
Woodlake 55/33/58/35/53 | Hanford 52/35/54/35/53 | Orosi 54/32/58/34/57 |
Seven Day Forecast:
Tuesday
AM fog/partial clearing 38/58 |
Wednesday
AM fog/partial clearing 36/58 |
Thursday
AM fog/partial clearing 39/63 |
Friday
AM fog/partial clearing 39/64 |
Saturday
AM fog/partial clearing 37/63 |
Two Week Outlook: January 16 through January 22: A blocking ridge pattern definitely shows up on this model outlook. The storm track will move well north of central California, bringing the chance of rain down into the low category with above average temperatures.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Tuesday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.
Rain Discussion: Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.
Frost Discussion: Temperatures last night dropped well down into the 30s before the fog and low overcast moved in in some areas. The result was most locations ranged between 33 and 37. A few locations did hit the freezing mark. Exeter came in at 31 as of 6:30, which was the coldest I could find. This pattern will be the name of the game for the next week to ten days. If the fog and low overcast completely take over, above freezing conditions will prevail. However, any night where skies are generally clear and fog free, coldest low lying regions will dip into the lower 30s. Very strong upper level high pressure will build over California beginning Tuesday, so where it clears from mid week on, daytime highs will soar into the mid to upper 60s. however, if the fog locks in completely, readings will only be in the upper 40s and lower 50s, at best.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
Strathmore
Af |
McFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
Af |
Lindsay
32 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
Belridge
32 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
30 |
Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
Af |
Mettler
Af |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Air Quality Expectations: The San Joaquin Valley Air Pollution Control District has issued the following warning(s) for January 9, 2021:
The air quality is Unsafe for Sensitive Groups in Fresno, Tulare, and Kern Counties and is Moderate for the remainder of the growing area.
The District’s Real-time Air Advisory Network (RAAN) can be used to track air quality at any Valley location by visiting myRAAN.com. The option to use a specific address is available.
In addition, anyone can follow air quality conditions by downloading the free “Valley Air” app on their mobile device
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Mid to upper 40s. Mid to upper 40s
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/68% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 20%, tomorrow 30%. Bakersfield: Today: 30% Tomorrow: 50%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: Stratford .35, Parlier .42, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .41, Orange Cove .29, Porterville .NA, Delano .35. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 51, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1068. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.0 +5.0 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -2.62, Month to Date: .T or -.57
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.52 Month to date .00, or -.30
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 591, Parlier, 696, Arvin, 565, Belridge, 645, Shafter, 655, Stratford, 674, Delano, 717, Porterville, 753
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:12 am Sunset: 5:02 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:49
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 50 / 42 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / M / 41 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 54 / 42 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 55 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 55 / M / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 61 / 34 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 56 / 37 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1551 / 61 / 37 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 59 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 50 / 39 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 2.09 39 4.33 80 5.39 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 33 3.23 69 4.70 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 52 0.00 0 4.36 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 17 0.00 0 4.59 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 35 0.00 0 4.04 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 17 0.00 0 3.90 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 33 0.00 0 2.26 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 11 1.10 56 1.95 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.96 21 5.06 111 4.54 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 23 6.01 138 4.34 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 38 4.16 88 4.72 13.95
Next report: January 9/pm