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Forecast

January 13, 2021/report

January 13, 2021

The ground fog out there this morning is rather spotty, as expected.  As of last report, Hanford and Visalia were down to ¾ mile visibility with most other locations ranging from 1 to 4 miles.  Variable amounts of mid and high level clouds continue to stream over central California.  Satellite imagery indicates the amount of off shore cloud cover is not that great, so even in spite of the high clouds from time to time, hazy sunshine will prevail.  The balloon sounding over Oakland a couple of hours ago tagged the freezing level at just above 4,000 feet.  There is a strong high developing several hundred miles off the southern California coast.  This high will expand northward, encompassing the Pacific Northwest and even British Columbia and the western one-third of the U.S.  As the high continues to build, temperatures will respond accordingly, moving well into the 60s today and mid to upper 60s Thursday through Saturday.  areas of fog will plague mainly the center of the valley later nights and mornings, but  hazy sunshine will nevertheless prevail during the afternoon hours.

 

A few locations, mainly in Kern County, will tease with the 70 degree mark, especially on Friday.

 

Two inside sliders will race through the Pacific Northwest and the Great Basin.  One will move through Saturday, another one Sunday night and Monday.  Behind the Monday system, a strong surface high will develop over the Great Basin, generating a strong off shore flow later next week.

 

The pattern between the 21 and the 27 is still quite speculative.  There is some indication of a low developing just west of Seattle around the 23 then dropping through California with a chance of showers.  In addition, a sharp ridge of upper level high pressure will govern the Gulf of Alaska, ridging north of the arctic circle.  So the pattern during this time frame is quite muddy at the moment.  I am gaining more confidence that temperatures will fall below average with gusty winds aat times with the best chance of measurable rain we’ve seen in a while.

 

Forecast:  Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy through Thursday morning with areas of night and morning dense fog and low clouds, mainly north of Kern County and mainly towards the center of the valley.  Mostly clear Thursday afternoon and on through Wednesday of next week with occasional periods of high clouds and areas of night and morning dense fog and/or low clouds with hazy afternoons.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 62/36/63/37/65 Reedley 63/37/64/38/65 Dinuba 62/34/63/36/64
Porterville 64/35/65/36/66 Lindsay 63/34/63/36/65 Delano 64/37/65/38/67
Bakersfield 64/42/67/44/70 Taft 64/48/66/51/69 Arvin 65/37/68/39/71
Lamont 65/37/67/40/70 Pixley 64/36/65/37/66 Tulare 63/34/64/36/65
Woodlake 63/35/64/37/65 Hanford 64/37/63/39/66 Orosi 63/34/64/36/65

 

Seven Day Forecast:

Saturday

AM fog/partial clearing

37/65

Sunday

AM fog/partial clearing

38/64

Monday

AM fog/partial clearing

37/63

Tuesday

AM fog/partial clearing

34/62

Wednesday

AM fog/partial clearing

33/60

 

Two Week Outlook:  January 20 through January 26:  Models are indicating the possibility of a major pattern change during this period.  This new pattern would be conducive for below average temperatures for the western U.S.  It would also provide a greater possibility for precipitation, especially around the 23 to the 24.

 

January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all.  We’ll call it near average this time around.  Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.    

 

January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State.  Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.   

 

Winds Discussion: Winds through Saturday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain Discussion:  Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost Discussion: There were fewer mid and high level clouds streaming overhead last night.  as of 6:30, Lindcove and Porterville had dropped to 32 with all other locations between 33 and 38.  The upper high off the southern California coast is strengthening and expanding into the western U.S.  Expect well above average temperatures during the afternoon hours with most locations running in the mid 60s, possibly even lower 70s in the warmer spots like in Kern County.  Readings will fall back over the weekend due toa couple of weak disturbances moving through the Great Basin.  Longer range models, for now, do not indicate a freeze pattern ahead, however the configuration on some models would cause temperatures to drop back considerably between the 21 and 27.  There is not really a freeze pattern configuration, however, models will change a bit in the coming days.

 

Lows Tonight:  All locations will be above 32 tonight. 

Afternoon Dew Points Today:  Mid to upper 40s.  Mid to upper 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/58% Porterville, NA

 

Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 70%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 70%

 

ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET information has been unavailable for the past 72 hours.   Seventy two hours.  Stratford .34, Parlier .41, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .40, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .NA, Delano .31. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available

 

Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46

Record Temperatures: 70/19. Average Temperatures: 54/35

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1145.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 47.8 +3.7 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  1.42,  or -2.92 or 33% of average.  Month to Date: .T  or -.87

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  .74, +or-  -1.66, or 31% of average.  Month to date .00,  or -.44

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 649, Parlier, 759,  Arvin, 615, Belridge, 699, Shafter, 713, Stratford, 727, Delano, 780, Porterville, NA

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:11 am   Sunset: 5:06 pm   Hours of Daylight:  9:54

 

 

Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  58 /  36 / 0.00 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /   M /  43 / 0.00 /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  58 /  42 / 0.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  57 /  34 / 0.00 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  61 /  32 / 0.00 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport   496 : DH1600 / 59 /  37 / 0.00 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1600 /  58 /  35 / 0.00 /

ATEC1 : Avenal               787 : DHM    /  56 /  42 / 0.00 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1600 /  58 /  34 / 0.00 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  57 /  37 / 0.00 /

Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.00    2.09    37    4.68    83     5.67    14.06

MODESTO                       0.00    1.54    31    3.48    70     4.96    13.11

MERCED                        0.00    2.28    49    0.00     0     4.68    12.50

MADERA                        0.00    0.77    16    0.00     0     4.88    12.02

FRESNO                        0.00    1.42    33    0.00     0     4.26    11.50

HANFORD                       0.00    0.67    16    0.00     0     4.16    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.00    0.74    31    0.00     0     2.37     6.47

BISHOP                        0.00    0.21    10    1.10    53     2.07     5.18

SALINAS                       0.00    0.96    20    5.14   107     4.80    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.00    0.99    21    6.04   130     4.63    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.00    1.77    35    4.25    85     4.99    13.95

 

Next report: January 13/pm