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Forecast

January 13, 2021/pm update

January 13, 2021

Summary:  Temperatures at 1:30 were quite uniform up an down the valley, ranging from 61 at Fresno to 63 at Avenal.  Outside of high, thin cirrus clouds, hazy sunshine is widespread this afternoon.  Strong upper level high pressure off the southern California coast is expanding eastward and northward.  It will build a ridge northward into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia Thursday through Friday night, giving those folks a brief respite from the relentless rains they’ve had this winter.  As the high builds, daytime temperatures will warm considerably through Saturday, especially Friday and Saturday.  warmest locations in the south valley will be teasing with the 70 degree mark.  With a strong, warm air inversion above the valley floor, areas of fog and/or low clouds will form during the night and morning hours, mainly towards the center of the valley north of Kern County.

 

Two fast moving inside sliders will zip through Nevada and Utah.  The first will race through Saturday, the second Sunday night into Monday.  Following the latter system, I’m now quite intrigued by the possibility of a freeze pattern developing about the middle of next week.  Models show a moisture starved but robust low pressure system forming over southern California and northwest Mexico while upper level high pressure builds through the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia.  This would generate a north/northeast flow aloft.

 

The other worrisome aspect to this pattern is a very strong surface high over the interior west, generating a very strong off shore flow.  What I’m watching is a combination of that upper level high pressure creating a cold northeast flow aloft and a robust off shore flow which could easily mix down cooler but more importantly drier air to the valley floor.  Models do show a chance of rain late next week, but that is then.

 

Forecast: Areas of night and morning fog and low clouds, mainly up the center of the valley and north of Kern County each morning through Monday.  Mostly clear and hazy conditions will prevail afternoons with occasional high, thin clouds mixed in at times.  Partly cloudy Monday night through Wednesday with gusty winds along the west side Tuesday and Wednesday.

 

Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 37/63/38/66 Reedley 36/65/37/66 Dinuba 35/63/38/66
Porterville 34/66/36/68 Lindsay 33/65/35/67 Delano 37/64/38/68
Bakersfield 42/67/44/70 Taft 48/65/52/70 Arvin 37/68/39/71
Lamont 36/67/38/69 Pixley 36/64/37/66 Tulare 33/63/36/65
Woodlake 35/63/37/66 Hanford 38/65/38/68 Orosi 33/63/35/65

 

Winds: Winds through Saturday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions.

 

Rain:  Expect dry conditions for the next week to possibly ten days.

 

Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees each night through Monday morning but only at or slightly above in the coldest river bottom and other low lying frost pockets.  There are models for the period beginning Tuesday that are getting my attention.  At the upper levels of the atmosphere, a strong high will build into the Pacific Northwest and western Canada while a moisture starved but strong low develops somewhere over southern California or possibly northwest Mexico.  At the surface, a very strong surface high will be centered over the Great Basin, generating a robust off shore flow.  My main concern is the alignment between winds aloft and at the surface.  Each is an off shore flow.  This could easily mix down a cooler but, more importantly, drier air mass onto the valley floor.  The fact that it’s been several days since we’ve had rain means the valley floor had now dried out.  Models in coming days may not show this pattern, but for the sake of argument, pretend it comes to pass.  We would more than likely be looking at mid to upper 20s beginning Wednesday, but more so Thursday and Friday.

 

Lows Tonight:

All locations will be above 32 tonight.

 

Next update:  January 14/am