January 14, 2021
Summary: Strong upper level high pressure is centered just off the central California coast this afternoon. A ridge extends from this high northward through the Pacific Northwest and into British Columbia. Temperatures on the valley floor at 1:00pm ranged from 60 at Fresno to 66 at Porterville. The high will peak in strength Friday, allowing the warmest locations to hit the 70 degree mark. With a strong warm air inversion, areas of ground fog and low clouds will form again tonight, mainly towards the center and west side of the valley, due to a continuing off shore flow.
Two weak disturbances will race through the Pacific Northwest then southeastward through the Great Basin. One will move through Friday night and Saturday morning and the second Sunday night and early Monday. Neither of these systems will directly impact the weather in central California. However, as soon as the second system moves through, the upper high off shore will drift further out over the ocean and build a ridge oriented southwest to northeast into British Columbia.
In the meantime, a cold trough of low pressure will dive southward from Canada into the interior west Monday then will form a closed low just to the west of northern Baja Tuesday through Wednesday. strong surface high pressure will develop over the Great Basin, meaning winds at the surface and aloft will be aligned off shore. My main concern is not the temperature of the air mass, although it will be cooler, but possibly much lower dew points. We could even see some strong, gusty winds in the south valley later Monday into Tuesday.
Central California will not receive any much needed precipitation with this change. The low will spread showers into the Desert Southwest and possibly extreme southern California. That low will finally move eastward Thursday as another cold low drops southward from western Canada and into California Friday through Saturday. this appears to be our best chance of receiving much needed precipitation, though it will bring with it well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear skies through Sunday night with periods of high, thin clouds and areas of night and morning fog and low clouds, mainly towards the center and west side of the valley north of Kern County. Partly cloudy, breezy, and cooler Monday and Monday night. mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/66/37/65 | Reedley 34/67/37/65 | Dinuba 34/65/36/65 | |
| Porterville 34/68/36/67 | Lindsay 33/66/35/67 | Delano 34/68/36/67 | |
| Bakersfield 43/71/45/69 | Taft 51/70/51/66 | Arvin 37/71/38/69 | |
| Lamont 37/70/38/69 | Pixley 35/68/36/66 | Tulare 33/65/34/65 | |
| Woodlake 35/65/36/65 | Hanford 35/67/36/66 | Orosi 33/65/35/64 | |
Winds: Winds through Sunday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions. Gusty north to northeast winds will begin along the far west side by Monday and Tuesday of next week. There is also the possibility of downslope Santa Ana winds in the extreme south valley around late Monday night through Wednesday of next week.
Rain: It appears dry weather will continue through Thursday of next week. Models show a cold low dropping out of western Canada and into California Friday and Saturday of next week. This cold system appears to be our best chance at measurable precipitation, though modeling is also showing additional opportunities towards the end of the month.
Frost: All locations will be above freezing tonight and each night through Monday morning, but near to slightly above in those traditional low cold spots. Models are indicating a very strong off shore flow will set up beginning Monday and lasting through Wednesday morning due to a moisture starved but robust low which most models place just off the Baja coastline by Monday night. high pressure will shift further off shore and will build a ridge northeastward into the Pacific Northwest, generating a north/northeast flow aloft. Strong surface high pressure will then set up shop over the Great Basin, meaning winds aloft and at the surface will be aligned off shore. This will spread a cooler air mass into the valley, but not necessarily what would be considered a cold air mass. The configuration later Monday and Monday night favors very strong Santa Ana winds in southern California, some of which could slide downslope off the Tehachapi Mountains for possibly some strong gusty winds in the extreme south valley. The main challenge will be determining where dew points settle in. I currently feel upper 20s to lower 30s for Tuesday through Thursday mornings, but stay tuned as the dew point factor has yet to be determined. It’s also possible that low off the northern Baja coastline could rotate some cloud cover over the valley, which would tend to nudge dew points and temperatures up. By next Friday, it appears a cold low will drop southward into central California from western Canada with even a chance of showers and low snow levels.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next update: January 15/am