January 14, 2021
Strong upper level high pressure is centered roughly 300 miles off the south/central California coast and is building a ridge northeastward into the Pacific Northwest and British Columbia. The freezing level both above VAFB and above Oakland this morning has soared all the way up to 13,300 feet. The temperature at Sandburg this morning at 4,100 feet as of 6:00am was a balmy 50 degrees with most locations on the valley floor in the low to mid 30s. most of the fog this morning is on the west side as an off shore surface flow nudges the fog and low clouds out of Kern County and much of Tulare County.
Two inside slider weather systems will move rapidly through the Pacific Northwest and into the Great Basin. The first will move in Saturday and the second Sunday night and Monday. We will see little impact on our weather. Through Monday, the main weather theme will be areas of night and morning low clouds and fog with hazy afternoon sunshine. With strong pressure aloft, temperatures during the day will warm into the mid to upper 60s, possibly eclipsing the 70 degree mark Friday and Saturday in the warmer locations in Kern County.
A few models began to depict radical changes taking place early next week. By Monday night, the high will back up off shore, building a southwest to northeast ridge into western Canada while a cold low drops southward into the interior west, forming a robust low pressure system, possibly over southern California or northern Baja, by Tuesday. In the meantime, very strong surface high pressure will build over the Great Basin. This creates a situation where winds aloft and at the surface are aligned off shore which potentially would drive a colder and much drier air mass onto the valley floor. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Mono wind event along the west facing slopes of the Sierra Nevada Monday night or Tuesday. More below in the frost discussion.
On paper, the chance of rain appears fairly low for northern and central California with a higher risk of showers over southern California. By Thursday of next week, models show the development of a cold low in western Canada driving southward into the western U.S. This would appear to be our best chance of showers along with well below average temperatures.
Forecast: Mostly clear through Sunday night with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds, mainly north of Kern County. Partly cloudy Monday. Variable cloudiness Monday night through Wednesday with a slight chance of showers Tuesday through Wednesday. variable cloudiness at times Wednesday night through Thursday with a slight chance of showers Thursday.
Short Term:
| Madera 64/36/66/37/66 | Reedley 65/34/66/37/65 | Dinuba 64/33/66/35/65 |
| Porterville 66/34/68/36/67 | Lindsay 65/33/66/36/67 | Delano 66/35/69/40/68 |
| Bakersfield 67/43/70/45/70 | Taft 65/51/70/51/66 | Arvin 67/37/71/40/70 |
| Lamont 66/37/70/39/69 | Pixley 65/35/66/37/65 | Tulare 63/34/66/36/65 |
| Woodlake 64/34/66/36/66 | Hanford 64/35/66/38/65 | Orosi 63/33/66/36/65 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Sunday
Patchy fog/mostly clear 37/63 |
Monday
Partly cloudy 40/61 |
Tuesday
Slight chance of showers 33/58 |
Wednesday
Partly cloudy 30/58 |
Thursday
Slight chance of showers 37/59 |
Two Week Outlook: January 21 through January 27: This model shows a broad area of low pressure stretching from western Canada southward into the western U.S., driving cold air into the western states. This would indicate below average temperatures. The chance of rain is higher than we’ve seen in a while.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: Winds through Sunday will be at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature during the late mornings and afternoons and generally less than 5 MPH during the night and early morning hours with extended periods of near calm conditions. Gusty north to northeast winds will begin along the far west side by Monday and Tuesday of next week. There is also the possibility of downslope Santa Ana winds in the extreme south valley around late Monday night through Wednesday of next week.
Rain Discussion: A radical shift in the pattern will begin early next week. A robust but moisture starved low will drop into the Great Basin Monday night, possibly centering over southern California or northern Baja Tuesday and Wednesday. as the low moves southward just to our east late Monday night and Tuesday, a few light showers could occur but nothing significant. A second cold trough will drop southward from western Canada and possibly into California Thursday and Friday of next week which appears to be our best chance for measurable precipitation.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but only slightly above in river bottom and frog pond situations.
Above freezing conditions will continue through Monday morning. radical changes will begin early next week. An upper high will move further off shore, building a ridge northeastward into western Canada while a low drops into the interior west Monday night then parks somewhere over southern California or northern Baja Tuesday through Wednesday. this will generate a north/northeast flow aloft. A very strong off shore flow will begin Monday, continuing through Wednesday. typically in situations like this, a cooler air mass moves into the valley, but more importantly is the fact that dew points lower. For the Tuesday through Wednesday time frame, we could see upper 20s and lower 30s on a widespread basis and possibly mid to upper 20s.
This is a very low confidence call for now due to the fact there will be strong wind energy above the valley floor. The placement of that low to our south means cloud cover may be added to the stew, resulting in milder overnight lows. By Thursday and Friday of next week, another cold trough will drop into the western U.S. for a chance of showers. Any night late next week through the weekend with generally clear skies could easily drop below freezing.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 100%/58% Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 80%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 90%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET information has been unavailable for the past four days. Seventy two hours. Stratford .NA, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 68/22. Average Temperatures: 54/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1160. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.0 +3.8 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -2.99 or 32% of average. Month to Date: .T or -.94
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.70, or 30% of average. Month to date .00, or -.48
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 661, Parlier, 773, Arvin, 632, Belridge, 719, Shafter, 728, Stratford, 743, Delano, 797, Porterville, 825
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:10 am Sunset: 5:07 pm Hours of Daylight: 9:55
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 65 / 37 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / M / 42 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 64 / 40 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 65 / 35 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 68 / 34 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1500 / 64 / 38 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1500 / 64 / 35 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1548 / 65 / 40 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 66 / 35 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DHM / M / M / M /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 67 / 38 / 0.00 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 2.09 36 4.68 80 5.85 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 30 3.48 68 5.14 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 47 M M 4.89 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 15 M M 5.06 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 32 M M 4.41 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 16 M M 4.32 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 30 M M 2.44 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 10 1.10 51 2.15 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.96 19 5.14 103 4.98 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 21 6.04 125 4.82 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 34 4.25 82 5.17 13.95
Next report: January 14/pm