January 17, 2021
Summary: It is a quiet and very warm Sunday afternoon with hazy sunshine and several locations approaching the 70 degree mark as of 1:00pm. To our north and northwest, radical changes are rapidly occurring. The upper high which has kept conditions so pleasant this past week is migrating further west out over the Pacific. What is currently a benign low pressure system is west of the extreme northern California/southern Oregon coast. By sunrise, this feature will be increasing in strength and will be just west of Monterey. It will race southward to off the southern California coast by Monday evening and off the northern Baja coastline Tuesday morning. the high I just mentioned will build a sharp ridge of high pressure from southwest to northeast into western Canada, resulting in a strong off shore flow aloft.
A complicated pattern as discussed this morning has become more complicated. Some models are now showing the development of a second low over southern Nevada. Some indicate this low will merge with the one off of northern Baja and place this mess a bit further south, off the central Baja coastline. The strong off shore surface flow we talked about this morning is still very much in play, however because of this second feature, the chance of Santa Ana winds reaching the extreme south valley is reduced. Even so, I want to keep that chance in the forecast from late Monday afternoon through Tuesday. One model is projecting sustained winds of 25 MPH as far north as Meadows Field. Again, if these winds do occur, very strong gusts exceeding 60 MPH are possible near the bottom of the Grapevine and as high as 50 MPH in places such as Taft, Mettler, Arvin, and Lamont.
By Wednesday morning, the configuration will begin to unlock, allowing winds to subside with light winds returning Wednesday afternoon and beyond.
A very cold upper low will drop southward from western Canada Thursday night and into California Friday night and Saturday. on paper, this system does not show any excitement whatsoever for the possibility of rain on the valley floor. Some models show precipitation mainly over the mountain areas. Even so, we’ll keep a minimal chance of showers in the forecast for Friday through Saturday morning.
Models do show an active pattern beginning a week from tomorrow as cold storms move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California.
Forecast: Mostly clear tonight. becoming partly cloudy after around 3:00am through Monday night. there is a chance of strong, gusty, east to southeast winds in the extreme south valley and possibly as far north as Bakersfield Monday through Tuesday with much lighter winds elsewhere. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy Tuesday through Thursday. It’s possible upper 20s and lower 30s could occur Wednesday and Thursday mornings with most locations being above freezing. Mostly cloudy Thursday night through Saturday with a minimal chance of light showers Friday through Saturday morning. partly to mostly cloudy Saturday night through Sunday.
Temperatures: Lows tonight will range from the mid 30s to the lower 40s with possibly mid to upper 40s in Kern County. Highs Monday will range in the mid to upper 60s. Lows Monday night will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s, possibly as warm as the low to mid 50s in Kern County if the winds develop. Highs Tuesday will once again range in the mid to upper 60s.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next update: January 18/am