January 18, 2021
A complex and rare weather pattern is currently evolving. The upper level high which, in part, resulted in such pleasant January weather is shifting further off shore. In the meantime, a weak wave of low pressure which was off the southern Oregon/northwest California coast 24 hours ago, is now centered just to the west/southwest of Santa Maria. This system is marked by some high clouds but little else. Further out over the ocean, a strong high is building a ridge into Canada. This will create a northeast flow aloft. Meanwhile, a second low is developing over Montana and will drop east into southern Nevada later tonight, merging with the off shore low which by Tuesday night will be centered just off the northern Baja coastline.
The next major factor in this equation is strong surface high pressure which is already building over the Pacific Northwest and will be over Montana and Idaho by this time tomorrow morning. this is creating a rare phenomenon which aligns the winds from the surface with winds up to 30,000 feet. In this case, they’re aligned out of the east/northeast with much lower barometric pressure off the southern California coast as compared to the northern Great Basin. This may cause a rare Mono wind event along the east/west facing canyons of the Sierra Nevada, mainly from Kings Canyon north.
This same evolution will create a strong Santa Ana wind event in southern California. I wouldn’t be surprised to hear of winds approaching 100 MPH through canyons and below passes. I still believe it’s entire possible that these winds could move downslope off the Tehachapi and the extreme southern Sierra Nevada for a possible high wind event in the extreme south valley and, to a lesser extent, further north in Kern County. Gusty northeast winds can also be anticipated along the west side of the valley, especially along the Interstate 5 corridor.
By Wednesday afternoon, the low west of Baja will be kicked into northwest Mexico by a cold low dropping southward along the Canadian coast. This low should be just west of Crescent City by Thursday night and over central California Friday and Saturday. models are now varying on precipitation amounts. Some now show a decent chance of showers while others still show fairly dry weather with rain mainly over the high country. This low will begin to shift eastward late Saturday as a brief and narrow high moves overhead late Sunday. I must say there’s a definite trend on medium range models for cold storms to move out of the Gulf of Alaska and into California for episodes of wet weather beginning Monday and through next weekend. We’ll have to see if medium range models hold up this time.
Forecast: partly cloudy today. Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Wednesday. There is a chance of high winds over the valley portion of Kern County from late this afternoon through Tuesday. Mostly clear Wednesday night and Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night. a chance of showers Friday through Saturday. partly cloudy Saturday night and Sunday with areas of night and m orning fog. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with a chance of rain Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 67/37/64/32/56 | Reedley 68/35/64/31/55 | Dinuba 67/34/64/31/57 |
| Porterville 69/34/65/31/58 | Lindsay 68/34/64/30/58 | Delano 69/38/65/33/58 |
| Bakersfield 70/51/64/41/62 | Taft 65/47/61/45/60 | Arvin 70/52/64/;42/62 |
| Lamont 70/50/64/41/65 | Pixley 68/37/65/33/59 | Tulare 67/36/65/31/57 |
| Woodlake 68/35/65/31/59 | Hanford 68/38/65/31/58 | Orosi 67/34/64/30/58 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Thursday
Mostly cleaer 31/64 |
Friday
Chance of showers 39/61 |
Saturday
Chance of showers 40/53 |
Sunday
Partly cloudy 33/56 |
Monday
Chance of rain 39/55 |
Two Week Outlook: January 24 through January 30: This model paints roughly 80% of the lower 48 with below average temperatures, including California. It also indicates there will be an active pattern over the western U.S. with a greater potential for precipitation.
January: This model doesn’t really show a trend for temperatures at all. We’ll call it near average this time around. Not surprisingly, it does indicate January will have below average precipitation, as has been the case this La Nina year.
January, February, March: This model does not really offer much hope for a decent rainy season as below average precipitation is indicated over the Golden State. Temperatures over this 90 day period will be generally above seasonal average.
Winds Discussion: North of Kern County, winds will be generally light and variable for most of the day. Along the east side of the valley from late this afternoon through Tuesday, winds will be out of the north/northwest at 10 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.
Along the western side of Fresno and Kings “Counties, winds will be out of the north to northeast at 15 to 30 MPH with local gusts to 40 MPH possible, decreasing later Tuesday night.
For Kern County, winds will be light for most of the day. The chance of strong winds out of the east/southeast will increase from late this afternoon through Tuesday. I must emphasize that sometimes these winds reach the valley floor but most of the time they do not. However, the configuration setting up is such where I would put the chance of these winds developing at 60% or more. If they do develop, gusts to near 70 MPH cannot be ruled out near the bottom of the Grapevine with gusts to 40 to 50 MPH in places such as Mettler and Taft. There is a chance of 50 to 60 MPH gusts at Edison, Arvin, and Lamont. These winds may work as far north as roughly Oildale. Gusts over 40 MPH are certainly possible as far north as Meadows Field.
These winds will rapidly decrease Tuesday night with winds of less than 20 MPH Wednesday and light winds returning Wednesday night and Thursday.
Rain Discussion: Dry weather will continue through Thursday night. a very cold low will drop into California Friday and Saturday. some models now are showing an increased possibility of a widespread rain event. Others, though, still show precipitation confined to the higher elevations. At any rate, there is a legitimate chance of showers Friday through Saturday with a brief period of dry weather Saturday night through Sunday night. medium range models the past several days have been pointing towards a wet, active pattern beginning Monday and that trend continues today. There will be an increasing chance of rain Monday with further chance of precipitation later next week.
Frost Discussion: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight. it’s possible a few wind sheltered locations along the east side could drop into the lower 30s. there will be tremendous wind energy above the valley floor, mixing up the lower level of the atmosphere, thus keeping temperatures up.
From this point on, we will study dew points and wind conditions. I do believe upper 20s and lower 30s will be possible Wednesday and Thursday mornings. Theoretically, we should have a drier air mass on the valley floor allowing for greater radiational cooling. Temperatures Friday through Saturday will be above freezing due to cloud cover and the chance of rain. There is a chance of frost on some areas Sunday morning if skies clear, which is questionable.
Much of next week will be characterized by a cold but active pattern with most days above freezing.
Lows Tonight: All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Upper 40s to the lower 50s. Mid to upper 40s.
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 90%, tomorrow 80%. Bakersfield: Today: 90% Tomorrow: 70%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET information has been unavailable for the past eight days. Seventy two hours. Stratford .NA, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 70/23. Average Temperatures: 55/35
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1210. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.0 +4.6 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.42, or -3.29 or 30% of average. Month to Date: .T or -1.24
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .74, +or- -1.86, or 28% of average. Month to date .00, or -.64
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 670, Parlier, 784, Arvin, 640, Belridge, 727, Shafter, 737, Stratford, 746, Delano, 806, Porterville, 750
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:09 am Sunset: 5:11 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:00
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 69 / 39 / 0.00 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / M / 43 / 0.00 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 70 / 43 / 0.00 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 70 / 37 / 0.00 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 72 / 37 / 0.00 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 70 / 42 / 0.00 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 69 / 42 / 0.00 /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1540 / 69 / 41 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 72 / 41 / 0.00 /
TFTC1 : Taft 759 : DH1600 / 67 / 51 / M /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.00 2.09 34 5.14 83 6.22 14.06
MODESTO 0.00 1.54 28 3.85 70 5.49 13.11
MERCED 0.00 2.28 44 0.00 0 5.24 12.50
MADERA 0.00 0.77 14 0.00 0 5.38 12.02
FRESNO 0.00 1.42 30 0.00 0 4.71 11.50
HANFORD 0.00 0.67 15 0.00 0 4.60 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.00 0.74 28 0.00 0 2.60 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 9 1.16 50 2.31 5.18
SALINAS 0.00 0.96 18 5.88 111 5.32 12.83
PASO ROBLES 0.00 0.99 19 6.61 127 5.19 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.00 1.77 32 4.77 86 5.54 13.95
Next report: January 18/pm