January 18, 2021
Summary: This is actually one of the most fascinating weather patterns I’ve ever seen, and believe me, guys, I’ve been around a while. All these various components are rapidly coming together to create a potentially very strong wind event. These are the various players. Upper level high pressure has glided well off shore with a big ridge extending into western Canada. There are two low pressure systems rapidly evolving. The first was just west of Santa Maria this morning and is now roughly 200 miles west/southwest of San Diego. Low number 2 is rapidly progressing southward and is now centered over southern Idaho and northeast Nevada. This low will overtake the first low, forming one storm system off the northern and central Baja coast. The other component is just beginning to take shape in the form of strong upper level high pressure which is centered over eastern Washington state and will move into the northern Great Basin later tonight and Tuesday.
We see a lot of off shore flows this time of year, but this one is, number one, particularly strong, and the flow both at the surface all the way up through the upper atmosphere will align. Potentially powerful Mono winds will work their way southward along the Sierra Nevada later tonight and Tuesday. The alignment will move further south into southern California later Tuesday morning, lasting through out the day. I hope I don’t end up with egg on my face, but the potential for strong winds in the south valley will begin later tonight with the greatest risk being Tuesday morning, but lasting well into the afternoon and possibly the evening. More in the wind discussion below.
The low will finally be kicked eastward Wednesday night and Thursday as a cold trough of low pressure drops southward from the Gulf of Alaska and into California. Models certainly are at war with one another on the chance of precipitation, ranging from near nothing to possibly significant amounts. I feel comfortable using the term “showers likely”, especially from Friday afternoon through later Saturday.
Medium range models show another cold system dropping into California Monday into Tuesday for the likelihood of precipitation. Some models are now painting a very strong storm system off the northern California coast Wednesday with the potential for significant precipitation for most of California with another possible system next weekend.
Forecast: Mostly clear to occasionally partly cloudy tonight through Wednesday morning. expect strong, gusty winds to develop along the west side and possibly some strong winds over the valley portion of Kern County later tonight into Tuesday. Mostly clear Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Increasing cloudiness Thursday night with showers likely Friday through Saturday evening with a diminishing chance of showers into early Sunday morning. partly cloudy Sunday. Increasing cloudiness Sunday night with rain becoming likely Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 36/64/31/64 | Reedley 35/65/31/62 | Dinuba 36/63/30/62 | |
| Porterville 35/65/30/62 | Lindsay 34/64/30/62 | Delano 41/65/32/61 | |
| Bakersfield 51/64/41/64 | Taft 52/60/48/60 | Arvin 51/65/38/63 | |
| Lamont 51/65/38/62 | Pixley 38/64/31/64 | Tulare 38/63/30/63 | |
| Woodlake 34/64/30/62 | Hanford 38/65/32/64 | Orosi 34/63/29/62 | |
Winds: We’ll start out talking about winds north of Kern County. Winds from south of Fresno through Tualre County will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to15 MPH with locally stronger gusts near the base of the foothills. The central and western side of Fresno County, Madera County, and Kings County will begin to see winds out of the north to northwest at 15 to 35 MPH with gusts to near 50 MPH possible, mainly along the Interstate 5 corridor. These winds will slowly decrease Tuesday night with generally light winds returning Wednesday.
In Kern County, the chance for high winds will begin after midnight with the greatest risk being from roughly 6:00 Tuesday morning through the remainder of the day. Near the base of the Tehachapi and the extreme southern Sierra Nevada, gusts to 70 to 80 MPH cannot be ruled out, particularly near the bottom of the Grapevine. Gusts exceeding 50 MPH are certainly possible in places such as Mettler and Taft. Locations such as Arvin and Lamont could see gusts as strong as 60 MPH out of the east to southeast. Further north towards Bakersfield, gusts in the 40s and 50 MPH range are possible as far north as Delano.
Winds will decrease Tuesday night with winds of generally less than 15 to 20 MPH Wednesday with light winds Wednesday night and Thursday.
Rain: Dry conditions will continue through Thursday night. showers now appear likely beginning Friday, especially during the afternoon, continuing on and off through Saturday night. a dry slot of weather will encompass Sunday and Sunday night. the next weather system appears stronger and will spread precipitation over central California Monday into Tuesday. Some models show a powerful low off the northern California coast late Wednesday into Thursday for the possibility of decent amounts of valley rain and mountain snow with possibly yet another system the following weekend.
Frost: All locations will be above 32 degrees tonight, but at or near 32 in locations which enjoy calm winds and clear skies and are in typical low lying frost pockets. Wednesday and Thursday mornings will see an increased risk of upper 20s to lower 30s. By then, this wind event will be over, leaving a dry layer of air on the valley floor which, of course, means stronger radiational cooling. Fortunately, this is not a critically cold air mass, but still, I want to watch the temperature/dew point factors closely. Cloud cover and showers will do the job Friday and Saturday. Sunday will be determined by the amount of cloud cover and wind conditions, but nothing serious is on the horizon. Next week will be cold, but active with most nights above freezing.
Lows Tonight:
All locations will be above 32 tonight.
Next update: January 19/am