January 23, 2021
The center of circulation of this first in a series of winter storms is moving into Kern County at this hour. There are still some widely scattered showers over the valley floor which will be ending by late morning. the showers and thunderstorms yesterday afternoon and last night resulted in a few isolated pockets receiving more than .33 with most locations receiving between .10 and.25. This afternoon and tonight, we will be under the influence of a narrow wedge of high pressure separating the current storm from the next system. This next system is stronger and is extremely cold. The low will actually stretch out from British Columbia to southern California, which is a rather odd configuration, and is one which will bring periods of showers from Sunday afternoon through Monday with possibly locally more precipitation this time around.
The snow level will drop to as low as 1,500 feet in heavier showers surrounding the valley floor. There’s even a slight chance of snow sticking to the ground in places like Taft and over the higher west side hills. This storm will also exit through southern California Monday night with a temporary lull in the action.
Models have been very consistent in the development of a powerful winter storm centered off the Oregon coast beginning later Tuesday night with a rich feed of moisture running from west/southwest to north/northeast into northern California Tuesday night and Wednesday.
The only change on models this morning is the southward progress of the jet stream and a possible pineapple connection of moisture has slowed down a bit, so it may be Wednesday or Wednesday night before precipitation arrives in earnest. We’ve been mentioning the past several days strong differences in surface pressure between the northwest coast and the high deserts of southern California. This may result in strong, gusty winds in the extreme south valley and along the west side of the valley and locally elsewhere. With this flow of air moving inland perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada, several feet of new snow could potentially pile up.
Beyond Friday, models continue showing another trough low pressure moving in this coming weekend for potentially more precipitation all the way into the early part of the following week.
Forecast: Scattered showers for a time this morning. partly to mostly cloudy this afternoon and tonight. showers spreading from northwest to southeast across the valley Sunday afternoon. Periods of showers Sunday night and Monday with snow down into the lower foothills. Mostly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness late Tuesday. A chance of rain Wednesday morning, becoming likely at times late Wednesday afternoon through Friday, possibly locally heavy at times, mainly in the east valley north of Kern County. There will be possible strong gusty winds later Tuesday night through Wednesday night. Periods of showers at times Friday night through Saturday.
Short Term:
| Madera 54/34/57/39/50 | Reedley 55/32/57/39/49 | Dinuba 54/32/55/39/50 |
| Porterville 56/33/57/39/49 | Lindsay 55/32/56/39/49 | Delano 56/34/57/39/50 |
| Bakersfield 53/39/57/39/48 | Taft 51/40/55/42/46 | Arvin 56/37/57/38/49 |
| Lamont 56/37/56/39/48 | Pixley 55/33/57/39/50 | Tulare 54/32/56/38/49 |
| Woodlake 55/34/57/39/49 | Hanford 55/34/56/39/50 | Orosi 54/32/56/38/49 |
Seven Day Forecast:
| Tuesday
Increasing clouds 32/50 |
Wednesday
PM rain likely/gusty winds 38/57 |
Thursday
Periods of rain 42/58 |
Friday
Periods of rain 42/57 |
Saturday
Showers likely 41/56 |
Two Week Outlook: January 30 through February 5: This model is reverting back to a pattern favorable for below average temperatures with storms moving out of the Gulf of Alaska, resulting in above average precipitation.
February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California. Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.
February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation. Temperatures should be marginally above average.
Winds Discussion: Winds will be mainly out of the northwest today at 8 to 15 MPH with locally stronger gusts, becoming generally light tonight. Winds Sunday through Sunday night will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts. Winds Monday and Monday night will be mainly out of the northwest at around 8 to 15 MPH. Winds Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH, increasing to 15 to 30 MPH late Tuesday night and Wednesday with gusts to 40 MPH along the west side. Winds later Tuesday night through Wednesday will potentially be strong and gusty in the extreme south valley, possibly exceeding 50 MPH. Nailing down these winds is always a risky proposition, but I would be remiss to not add that chance to the forecast.
Rain Discussion: The scattered showers in the valley this morning will end by late morning with dry weather this afternoon through tonight. Showers will spread over the valey again Sunday, mainly during the second half of the day with periods of showers Sunday night into at least Monday evening. This storm is extremely cold with snow possibly as low as 1,500 feet. There is a slight chance of snow at places like Taft, which is at 1,000 feet, and along the west side hills. Precipitation amounts will range from .25 to .50 with this event. There will be a brief period of dry weather from Monday night through Tuesday night.
The very strong storm we’ve bee mentioning for several days is still on. Some models have slowed down the progress of this storm. With a rich feed of moisture sweeping in from the Pacific perpendicular to the Coast Range and the Sierra Nevada, several feet of new snow will fall over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada and possibly 3 to 5 inches in the foothills from Wednesday through Friday.
Models show a new storm developing in the Gulf of Alaska, set to arrive next weekend for more precipitation. This is certainly the weather pattern we’ve been hoping and praying for.
Frost Discussion: The current air mass is quite cold, but not critically so. Tonight, where skies are relatively clear, the coldest locations could dip down to 29 to 31, however most locations will remain in the 30s. Even though the next system is extremely cold, cloud cover and precipitation at times will keep temperatures above freezing Monday and more than likely Tuesday morning. From Wednesday through Friday, a strong west/southwest flow will begin, pumping in milder air with rising snow levels and above freezing conditions continuing through at least next weekend.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
| Strathmore
32 |
mcFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano | North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
| Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s. Low to mid 40s
Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, NA Porterville, NA
Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 30%, tomorrow 10%. Bakersfield: Today: 20% Tomorrow: 20%
ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days: ET information has been unavailable for the past twelve days. Seventy two hours. Stratford .NA, Parlier .NA, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .NA, Orange Cove .NA, Porterville .NA, Delano .NA. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available.
Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 53, Parlier 50, Blackwell 53, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 52, Porterville NA, Delano 46
Record Temperatures: 72/25. Average Temperatures: 56/36
Heating Degree Days This Season: 1266. Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS
Average Temperature for this month So Far: 49.4 +4.7 courtesy of the NWS
Precipitation: Seasonal total for Fresno, 1.55, or -3.48 or 29% of average. Month to Date: .13 or -1.50
Precipitation for Bakersfield, Season, .91, +or- -1.86 or 27% of average. Month to date .17, or -.64
Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.
Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 715, Parlier, 852, Arvin, 693, Belridge, 792, Shafter, 801, Stratford, 813, Delano, 880, Porterville, 816
Hours at 45 or below 45. Courtesy UC Davis
Sunrise: 7:06 am Sunset: 5:16 pm Hours of Daylight: 10:08
Yesterday’s Weather
MCE : Merced 153 : DH1600 / 54 / 40 / 0.10 /
MAE : Madera 253 : DH1600 / 55 / 40 / 0.08 /
FAT : Fresno Airport 333 : DH1600 / 56 / 46 / 0.06 /
HJO : Hanford Airport 242 : DH1600 / 58 / 44 / 0.03 /
NLC : Lemoore Naval AS 234 : DH1600 / 58 / 41 / 0.05 /
BFL : Bakersfield Airport 496 : DH1600 / 62 / 43 / 0.16 /
VIS : Visalia Airport 292 : DH1600 / 57 / 45 / T /
ATEC1 : Avenal 787 : DH1555 / 58 / 50 / 0.00 /
PTV : Porterville Airport 442 : DH1600 / 57 / 42 / 0.11 /
LOSC1 : Los Banos 120 : DH1600 / 56 / 37 / 0.07 /
Rainfall: 24hr W.Y. % Last Y. % Ave. Year ave.
STOCKTON 0.66 2.75 41 5.17 78 6.64 14.06
MODESTO 0.09 1.63 28 3.86 65 5.91 13.11
MERCED 0.10 2.38 42 M M 5.64 12.50
MADERA 0.08 0.85 15 M M 5.74 12.02
FRESNO 0.06 1.48 29 M M 5.03 11.50
HANFORD 0.03 0.70 14 M M 4.85 10.10
BAKERSFIELD 0.16 0.90 32 M M 2.77 6.47
BISHOP 0.00 0.21 9 1.16 47 2.45 5.18
SALINAS 0.22 1.18 21 5.88 103 5.73 12.83
PASO ROBLES T 0.99 18 6.61 118 5.61 12.78
SANTA MARIA 0.02 1.79 30 4.79 80 5.97 13.95
Next report: January 23/pm