January 23, 2021
Summary: A few showers still linger in Kern County this afternoon while most of northern California has cleared out. The center of the cold low is just west of Los Angeles and will swing into the Desert Southwest Sunday, allowing a temporary ridge of high pressure to fill in tonight and early Sunday.
The next system will be by far the coldest of the winter season thus far. Showers will begin to spread into the northern half of the valley Sunday afternoon then will spread into the south valley by Sunday evening with periods of showers continuing Sunday night and Monday. This storm has a rather oddball shape as it stretches from British Columbia to southern California. Very cold air will stream in with this system from the north for strong cold air dynamics which will result in heavier precipitation amounts.
Snow levels Monday will begin to drop to as low as 1,500 feet in the surrounding mountains. A few wet snow flakes could actually fall along the higher west side hills and at places like Taft which is near the 1,000 foot elevation. Strong gusty northwesterly winds will move down the valley behind the cold front Monday with gusts possibly exceeding 30 MPH just about anywhere due to a surface low developing over southern Nevada. This system will finally move into the interior west later Monday night for a temporary return to dry weather Tuesday and Tuesday night.
The last couple of model runs have slowed down the southern progression of the next Pacific storm. Models do continue to indicate it is very strong. It’s possible it may be later Wednesday or even Wednesday night before rain arrives south of Fresno County. Initially, the main feed of moisture will move into northern California Tuesday night and Wednesday morning then will slowly track southward. It’s possible precipitation may not reach southern California until Thursday night or even Friday.
The flow of energy in the upper atmosphere will be perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada so with some luck, several feet of new snow could accumulate over the high Sierra and anywhere from 2 to 4.5 inches north of Kern County in the foothills. This is a very slow moving system but will finally shift eastward Friday night as a new low drops out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the northern 2/3 of California this coming weekend and into the early part of next week.
Forecast: Mostly to partly cloudy tonight and Sunday morning. Showers spreading as far south as Fresno County later Sunday afternoon, reaching into the south valley by evening. Periods of showers Sunday night and Monday with strong, gusty, northwesterly winds at times. Snow down to 1,500 feet in the surrounding mountains. A chance of showers Monday evening. Becoming partly cloudy Monday night through Tuesday evening. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday night with rain reaching into Fresno County sometime Wednesday afternoon. Periods of rain Wednesday night through Friday, possibly locally heavy at times along the east side north of Kern County. Showers likely Friday night and Saturday.
Short Term:
Madera 33/54/38/49 | Reedley 33/57/39/50 | Dinuba 32/55/39/49 | |
Porterville 34/56/39/49 | Lindsay 32/55/39/48 | Delano 35/56/39/49 | |
Bakersfield 40/56/39/48 | Taft 40/54/42/46 | Arvin 38/57/39/48 | |
Lamont 38/56/40/48 | Pixley 34/56/39/50 | Tulare 32/55/39/48 | |
Woodlake 33/56/39/49 | Hanford 34/56/39/49 | Orosi 32/56/39/49 |
Winds: Winds this evening will be mainly out of the northwest at 5 to 12 MPH, becoming light overnight. Winds Sunday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH then will be out of the northwest Sunday night and Monday at 15 to 25 MPH at times with gusts to 35 MPH possible. Winds Monday night will be mainly out of the northwest at 8 to 15 MPH, diminishing after midnight. Winds Tuesday will be out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH.
Rain: The lingering showers in Kern County will end shortly with dry weather tonight and Sunday morning. showers will begin to spread into Fresno and Madera Counties Sunday afternoon and into the south valley by Sunday evening. Periods of showers will continue Sunday night through Monday with a chance of showers Monday evening. Rainfall amounts from this next storm will possibly be more significant, possibly upwards of .33 to .50. Dry weather will return later Monday night, continuing through Tuesday night. The next very potent Pacific storm continues to slow down with rain possibly not reaching Fresno County until late Wednesday afternoon or possibly even Wednesday evening and into the south valley Wednesday night or even Thursday. When precipitation finally does arrive, it could be potentially heavy along the east side of the valley north of Kern County. A strong rain shadow will no doubt form along the west side and in Kern County which may very well zap potential rainfall amounts in those regions. From Wednesday through Friday, the east side could easily pick up one to two inches with several feet of new snow over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Just as this soon as this system exits into the interior west Friday night, a new low is projected to drop southward out of the Gulf of Alaska and into the northern 2/3 of California this coming weekend.
Frost: Most locations will be above 32 degrees tonight due to lingering clouds behind the exiting storm. It’s possible, however, that low lying frost pockets with several hours of clear skies during the early morning h ours could drop to 29 to 31, but I feel that will be more the exception than the rule. Above freezing conditions can be expected Monday morning. If skies clear behind this very cold storm system Tuesday morning, lows could drop to 27 to 29 in unprotected frost pockets and upper 20s to lowe r30s elsewhere. Again, that will depend highly on sky cover. After Tuesday morning, expect above freezing conditions as a west/southwest flow develops.
Lows Tonight:
Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
Af |
Ivanhoe
32 |
Woodlake
Af |
Strathmore
32 |
mcFarland
af |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
Lindsay
31 |
Exeter
32 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
Belridge
31 |
Delano | North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
32 |
Orange Cove
Af |
Lindcove
31 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River bottom
29 |
Root Creek
31 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
Af |
Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next update: January 24/am