January 25, 2021
Summary: It is quite cold out there this afternoon with most locations as of 1:00pm reporting temperatures only in the mid to upper 40s. at the 2,000 foot elevation, temperatures are only in the mid 30s at this hour. Showers are still occurring over the south valley but will end over the next few hours.
The main target of tonight’s forecast will be the potential for below freezing weather, which is discussed in detail in the frost section below.
For this summary, we turn our attention to a very powerful winter storm currently in the Gulf of Alaska. It will drop southward to a position off the Oregon/northern California coast Tuesday night. flanked underneath this low will be the so-called atmospheric river of air moving into at least the northern half of California Tuesday night and as far south as Kern County Wednesday. models show the low remaining in a fairly stationary position through Thursday as the AR stalls right over central California. This will result in a magnificent opportunity for tremendous amounts of snow over the high Sierra and very heavy rain in the foothills as a 160 MPH jet stream moves overhead, perpendicular to the Sierra Nevada. High resolution models are still spitting out impressive amounts of rainfall from Tuesday night through Friday evening, especially from Fresno County north where more than 6 inches could easily fall with possibly 3-5 inches over the higher terrain of Tulare County.
Tightly packed isobars continue to show up on surface models for Tuesday nigh through Wednesday night. it is appearing more and more likely that the extreme south valley will experience a high wind event with strong, gusty, southeast winds over most of the valley. North of Kern County, the strongest winds will be towards the center and west side of the valley. More below.
The feed of moisture will finally reach southern California Friday then will finally move eastward Friday night, ending the event.
Over the weekend, the storm track will migrate further north for dry weather. Models continue to indicate a low will drop out of the Gulf of Alaska, affecting areas from Fresno County north Monday and Tuesday and possibly moving further south later in the week.
Forecast: Becoming mostly clear towards the center and west side of the valley tonight. partly to mostly cloudy along the east side and in Kern County. Partly cloudy Tuesday. Increasing cloudiness Tuesday evening with rain becoming likely from Fresno County north with a chance further south. Rain at times Wednesday through Friday, heavy at times especially along the east side north of Kern County. A chance of showers for a time Friday night. partly cloudy Saturday through Sunday night. a slight chance of showers from Fresno County north Monday.
Short Term:
| Madera 29/51/41/55 | Reedley 28/50/41/56 | Dinuba 28/49/40/55 | |
| Porterville 29/52/42/56 | Lindsay 28/50/41/56 | Delano 30/51/42/57 | |
| Bakersfield 33/50/42/58 | Taft 35/47/45/57 | Arvin 32/49/41/59 | |
| Lamont 32/50/42/58 | Pixley 29/52/42/57 | Tulare 28/50/40/56 | |
| Woodlake 20/52/41/56 | Hanford 29/51/42/57 | Orosi 28/50/41/56 | |
Winds: Winds through this evening will continue to be gusty and out of the northwest at 15 to 25 MPH with stronger gusts, becoming light and variable after midnight. Winds Tuesday will be variable to around 12 MPH. winds Tuesday night through Wednesday night north of Kern County will be out of the southeast at 15 to 35 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH possible along the west side and locally elsewhere. In Kern County, expect winds in the extreme south valley to increase to 40 to 50 MPH at times with gusts possibly exceeding 70 MPH near the bottom of the Grapevine and possibly as strong as 60 MPH in places like Taft, Wheeler Ridge, Mettler, Arvin, and Lamont. Possibly as high as 50 MPH at Bakersfield. Winds Thursday will continue to be out of the southeast at 15 to 25 MPH at times with stronger gusts.
Rain: The showers in the south valley will end by this evening. Expect dry weather tonight through Tuesday. The chance of rain will begin to increase from mainly Fresno County north Tuesday night, spreading slowly southward Wednesday morning. this will be a major weather event with potentially more than 6 inches of rain in the foothill and mountain areas north of Tulare County and 2 to 4 inches in the foothills and mountains of Tulare county. These high intensity winter storms typically develop a strong rain shadow along the west side, and especially in Kern County. From Tuesday night through Friday evening, along the eastern half of the valley north of Kern County as much as 1.50 to 3.00 could fall. Along the west side, possibly an inch or two, but maybe considerably less if the rain shadow is dramatic enough. In Kern County, perhaps .50 or so with most of the precipitation there falling late Thursday into Friday. Expect dry conditions from later Friday night through Sunday night. there is a chance of showers from Fresno County northward Monday and Tuesday and showers may make it further south by Wednesday.
Frost: gusty northwest winds continue to move down the valley this afternoon, lowering dew points to the low to mid 30s. The ultimate outcome tonight will highly depend upon wind conditions and cloud cover. There is a good chance cloud cover may continue for much of the night in Kern County and much of Tulare County with clearing skies towards the center and west side of the valley. It’s also possible winds may stay strong enough along the west side throughout the night to be of benefit there. In areas towards the southern and eastern flanks of the valley where cloud cover remains, readings will only drop into the low to mid 30s. in locations where winds completely die off and skies are relatively clear, unprotected low lying regions could see lows in the 25 to 26 degree range. Most flatland locations under a clear sky would chill into the 28 to 32 degree range. The numbers below reflect the clear sky scenario and the potential of the air mass. If factors come into play and nudge the numbers up, I’ll be happy with that.
The inversion tonight will be weak with temperatures at 34 feet generally only 2 to 5 degrees warmer.
Fortunately, this is a one night event with above freezing temperatures Wednesday morning and beyond.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
30 |
Porterville
30 |
Ivanhoe
28 |
Woodlake
29 |
| Strathmore
29 |
mcFarland
29 |
Ducor
30 |
Tea Pot Dome
28 |
| Lindsay
28 |
Exeter
28 |
Famoso
30 |
Madera
29 |
| Belridge
28 |
Delano
30 |
North Bakersfield
29 |
Orosi
28 |
| Orange Cove
29 |
Lindcove
28 |
Lindcove Hillside
32 |
Sanger River Bottom
25 |
| Root Creek
28 |
Venice Hill
29 |
Rosedale
29 |
Jasmine
30 |
| Arvin
32 |
Lamont
31 |
Plainview
29 |
Mettler
32 |
| Edison
32 |
Maricopa
30 |
Holland Creek
32 |
Tivy Valley
29 |
| Kite Road South
32 |
Kite Road North
29 |
AF=Above Freezing
Next update: January 26/am