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January 30, 2021/report

January 30, 2021

A weak zone of upper level high pressure covers the southern 2/3 of California and off shore.  Cloudiness is streaking into the northern half of California, spreading as far south as Fresno County.  Even so, the weather will be fairly pleasant until Monday.


The next weather maker will come in the form of a trough of low pressure which will extend from British Columbia to off the central California coast on Monday.  Mid and high level clouds will increase during the course of the day.  There are some changes on  models on the possible  development and exact track of this storm.  Instead of moving through as your garden variety trough of low pressure, models are  now pointing toward the trough morphing into a closed low over northern and central California Tuesday.  This will give a greater chance of more significant precipitation for both the valley and the mountains as the forward speed of the storm will slow down, keeping showers around through much of the day Wednesday.  The low will then track into southern California Wednesday night and into the Desert Southwest Thursday.


On Thursday, a massive high pressure system at the mid and high levels of the atmosphere will cover the entire eastern Pacific, building all the way into Alaska.  The west coast of North America will be on the eastern fringe of the  high, creating a northerly flow aloft.  However, a huge pool of arctic air  will slide south/southeast into the Rockies and midwestern U.S.  Fortunately, models continue to show the bulk of the air mass staying east of the Sierra Nevada.  Even so, below average temperatures can be expected for the first and possibly second week in February.


Forecast: After the patchy fog burns off this morning, it will be mostly to partly cloudy from Fresno County north and mostly clear to partly cloudy south of Fresno County through tonight.  mostly cloudy Sunday through Monday.  A chance of rain Monday night.  rain likely at times Tuesday through Wednesday morning.  a chance of showers Wednesday afternoon.  Mostly cloudy Wednesday night through Thursday morning.  mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Saturday.


Short Term:                                                                        

Madera 58/33/60/40/64 Reedley 58/33/61/40/65 Dinuba 57/31/61/41/64
Porterville 59/32/61/43/66 Lindsay 58/31/61/40/66 Delano 59/33/62/43/67
Bakersfield 59/38/62/44/67 Taft 57/43/61/48/68 Arvin 60/36/62/44/68
Lamont 60/45/62/44/67 Pixley 59/32/61/43/67 Tulare 57/31/61/40/64
Woodlake 58/33/61/42/66 Hanford 58/33/61/42/65 Orosi 57/31/61/41/65


Seven Day Forecast:


Rain likely



Showers likely



Partly cloudy



Patchy fog/mostly clear



Patchy fog/mostly clear



Two Week Outlook:  February 4 through February 10:  This  model shows only a minimal chance of rain during this time frame.  It also indicates we will be on the western side of a cold low, resulting in below average temperatures.


February: Both the 30 and 90 day outlooks reflect a La Nina pattern with below average precipitation over the southern 2/3 of California and above average precip over parts of the Pacific Northwest and northern California.  Temperatures should be close to seasonal averages.      


February, March, April: Precipitation will continue to be above average over the Pacific Northwest and roughly the northern ¼ of California with the southern 2/ 3 of California having below average precipitation.  Temperatures should be marginally above average.


Winds Discussion: Winds will be generally at or less than 12 MPH late mornings and afternoons through Monday and will be variable in nature.  Winds during the night and morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions.  On Monday night and Tuesday, winds will be mainly out of the southeast at 8 to 15 MPH with stronger gusts.


Rain Discussion:  The chance of showers will again begin to increase after midnight Monday night.  Rain is likely Tuesday and Tuesday night with showers Wednesday.  the latest models have changed the storm’s evolution which will result in slower movement and potentially higher rainfall amounts.  North of Kern County, from Monday night through Wednesday, around 1.25 to 1.50 seems plausible to between .10 to .25 in the valley portion of Kern County.  Dry weather will return Wednesday night with dry weather the remainder of next week.  Models show central California remaining dry until roughly February 13.


Frost Discussion: A few locations did dip into the lower 30s as of 6:30 this morning.  Exeter dropped to 30 while Sanger and Lindsay chilled down to 31 with all other locations between 32 and 37.  Similar conditions are expected tonight, although cloud cover from Fresno County north may bump up temperatures there.  Clouds will increase Sunday night, keeping temperatures above 32 from Monday through possibly Thursday morning.


We continue to watch a northerly flow up and down the west coast along the eastern rim of a massive high off shore.  Models continue to show the arctic air generally from the Rocky Mountain region eastward from Thursday and beyond, so for now it does appear that  no freeze will develop.  However, this is a pattern we will continue to closely scrutinize in the coming days.


Lows Tonight:

Terra Bella














Tea Pot Dome














North Bakersfield




Orange Cove




Lindcove Hillside


Sanger River Bottom


Root Creek


Venice Hill


















Holland Creek


Tivy Valley


Kite Road South


Kite Road North


AF=Above Freezing

Afternoon Dew Points Today: Low to mid 40s.  Kern: Low to mid 40s.

Actual Humidity Range Yesterday: Delano, 99%/48% Porterville, NA


Percentage of Sunshine Today/Tomorrow: Visalia: Today: 70%, tomorrow 60%.  Bakersfield: Today: 80% Tomorrow: 70%


ET Rates Over the Past Seven Days:.  Stratford .30, Parlier .29, Blackwell Corners .NA, Arvin .63, Orange Cove .27, Porterville .NA, Delano .37. Courtesy University of California *=estimate, NA=not available


Seven Day Soil Temperatures: Stratford 52, Parlier 49, Blackwell NA, Arvin, 52, Orange Cove 51, Porterville NA, Delano 45

Record Temperatures: 74/25. Average Temperatures: 58/36

Heating Degree Days This Season: 1409.  Varies widely from location to location. courtesy of the NWS

Average Temperature for this month So Far: 48.7 +3.6 courtesy of the NWS

Precipitation:  Seasonal total for Fresno,  4.82,  or -.69 or 87% of average.  Month to Date: 3.40  or +1.36

Precipitation for Bakersfield,  Season,  1.72, +or-  -1.31 or 57% of average.  Month to date .98, or -.09

Water year season is from October 1st through September 30.

Chilling Hours November 1st through February 28: Orange Cove, 780, Parlier, 913,  Arvin, 734, Belridge, 845, Shafter, 841, Stratford, 873, Delano, 936, Porterville, 874

Hours at 45 or below 45.  Courtesy UC Davis

Sunrise: 7:01 am   Sunset: 5:24 pm   Hours of Daylight:  10:21


Yesterday’s Weather

MCE   : Merced               153 : DH1600 /  57 /  44 / 0.49 /

MAE   : Madera               253 : DH1600 /  57 /  45 /    M /

FAT   : Fresno Airport       333 : DH1600 /  55 /  45 / 1.00 /

HJO   : Hanford Airport      242 : DH1600 /  58 /  44 / 0.98 /

NLC   : Lemoore Naval AS     234 : DH1600 /  58 /  41 / 0.61 /

BFL   : Bakersfield Airport  496 : DHM    /  58 /  45 / 0.62 /

VIS   : Visalia Airport      292 : DH1500 /  57 /  44 / 0.91 /

PTV   : Porterville Airport  442 : DH1500 /  58 /  45 / 0.83 /

LOSC1 : Los Banos            120 : DH1600 /  56 /  42 /    M /


Rainfall:                     24hr    W.Y.    %    Last Y.  %     Ave.     Year ave.

STOCKTON                      0.05    5.90    81    5.27    72     7.28    14.06

MODESTO                       0.27    5.44    84    3.92    60     6.51    13.11

MERCED                        0.06    5.61    93       M     M     6.01    12.50

MADERA                           M    1.05    17       M     M     6.08    12.02

FRESNO                        0.07    4.82    87       M     M     5.51    11.50

HANFORD                       0.10    3.03    60       M     M     5.09    10.10

BAKERSFIELD                   0.04    1.72    57       M     M     3.03     6.47

BISHOP                           T    0.38    15    1.16    44     2.62     5.18

SALINAS                       0.04    4.40    70    5.99    95     6.33    12.83

PASO ROBLES                   0.41    5.93    95    6.61   106     6.22    12.78

SANTA MARIA                   0.31    5.90    89    4.79    73     6.60    13.95


Next report: January 30/pm