January 30, 2021
Summary: Temperatures have warmed mostly into the upper 50s as of 1:00pm with dew points in the low to mid 40s. Satellite imagery displays a streak of cloud cover off the central coast which will move overhead during the nighttime hours. Even so, there may be enough clear periods of time for radiational cooling to develop local frost on Sunday morning. with a soaked valley floor and a weak warm air inversion, areas of dense fog will develop, as well, mainly towards the center of the valley.
A trough of low pressure is developing which, by Sunday night, will extend from British Columbia to several hundred miles off the central coast. It now appears precipitation will not arrive in the valley until later Tuesday or possibly Tuesday evening. The trend which began on models 24 hours ago continues to show up this afternoon. It shows the development of a closed low situation just off the central coast Tuesday night and Wednesday. it is slowing the advancement of rain into central California but is also enhancing the chances of receiving significant precipitation, especially over the mountain areas. It appears showers may linger into Thursday morning, especially in Kern County.
While all this is going on, a massive high will blanket the eastern Pacific with the top of the high extending all the way into Alaska, reaching the Arctic Circle. This will set the stage for bitterly cold arctic air to drive southward into the Rockies and Midwest. That region may experience the coldest weather in years next weekend. Fortunately for us, we will be on the eastern flank of the off shore high, meaning Arctic air will remain to our east.
Forecast: Partly cloudy tonight and Sunday with areas of fog and low clouds late tonight and Sunday morning, mainly towards the center of the valley north of Kern County. Variable cloudiness Sunday night through Monday. Increasing cloudiness Monday night. a slight chance of rain Tuesday morning, becoming likely later in the afternoon. Rain at times Tuesday night and Wednesday. periods of showers Wednesday night. Lingering showers will be possible in the south valley early Tuesday morning, otherwise it will be partly cloudy. Mostly clear Thursday afternoon through Saturday with areas of night and morning fog and low clouds.
Short Term:
| Madera 33/60/41/64 | Reedley 32/61/41/65 | Dinuba 31/60/40/64 | |
| Porterville 32/62/42/66 | Lindsay 31/61/41/66 | Delano 33/62/42/67 | |
| Bakersfield 38/63/46/67 | Taft 44/62/49/68 | Arvin 35/63/43/68 | |
| Lamont 35/62/44/68 | Pixley 32/62/42/67 | Tulare 32/61/41/64 | |
| Woodlake 33/60/40/64 | Hanford 34/61/42/66 | Orosi 32/60/40/64 | |
Winds: Winds during the night and early morning hours will be generally at or less than 5 MPH with periods of near calm conditions through Tuesday. Winds during the late morning and afternoon hours will be generally at or less than 10 MPH and variable in nature.
Rain: It now appears precipitation from the next storm will not arrive until later Tuesday, possibly even later in the afternoon. The mechanics of why are discussed in the weather summary above.
Expect rain at times from later Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, turning to showers Wednesday night with a few lingering showers possible into Thursday morning, mainly in Kern County. Later Thursday and for a week thereafter will be dry.
Rainfall amounts from this upcoming storm north of Kern County will generally range from .25 to possibly as much as .65. Over the valley portion of Kern County, generally .10 to .25 seems possible. Longer range models continue to point towards a possible wet pattern beginning roughly February 13.
Frost: There will be in and out cloud cover tonight embedded within a westerly flow aloft. Still, it appears there will be several hours at a time of mostly clear skies, allowing radiatioinal cooling to lower the coldest frost pockets into the lower 30s with most locations ranging from 32 to 37.
Tonight is the only night where local frost can be expected as cloud cover and a southerly flow at the surface begin to moderate conditions on the valley floor. Even models for later this week, from Thursday on, now appear mild enough for only a small chance of local frost on any given morning.
Bitterly cold Arctic air will plunge southward into the Rockies and Midwest beginning Thursday night. However, that massive off shore high will be far enough to the east to keep that air mass away from California.
Lows Tonight:
| Terra Bella
32 |
Porterville
32 |
Ivanhoe
31/ |
Woodlake
32 |
| Strathmore
Af |
mcFarland
32 |
Ducor
Af |
Tea Pot Dome
32 |
| Lindsay
30 |
Exeter
31 |
Famoso
Af |
Madera
Af |
| Belridge
31 |
Delano
Af |
North Bakersfield
Af |
Orosi
31 |
| Orange Cove
32 |
Lindcove
32 |
Lindcove Hillside
Af |
Sanger River Bottom
29 |
| Root Creek
30 |
Venice Hill
Af |
Rosedale
Af |
Jasmine
Af |
| Arvin
Af |
Lamont
Af |
Plainview
32 |
Mettler
Af |
| Edison
Af |
Maricopa
Af |
Holland Creek
af |
Tivy Valley
AF |
| Kite Road South
Af |
Kite Road North
Af |
AF=Above Freezing
Next update: January 31/am